Alper Alsan and M. Atilla Oner
The use of foresight as a tool in policy and strategic decision making increased especially in the last decade of the twentieth century in order to enhance competitiveness and…
Abstract
The use of foresight as a tool in policy and strategic decision making increased especially in the last decade of the twentieth century in order to enhance competitiveness and innovation of nations, regions, corporations and even individuals. Coupled with this development a lot of different definitions which partly include part of the others emerged in the literature. However, it was observed that none of these definitions were capable enough to represent an integrated and holistic view about the impact of foresight on the management of the future. In this article, the integrated foresight management model is introduced which is based on the integrated management model but enriched by a knowledge‐people‐system‐organisation framework. The current list of definitions was tabulated in this new model and the vacancies in the model were filled out. This integrated foresight management model can help practitioners in designing national, regional or corporate programs in developing necessary organisational structures, deliverables and behaviours on policy, strategy and operational levels of management.
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M. Atilla Öner and Senem Göl Beşer
The overall aim of the research is to provide an assessment of the level of the reported success of foresight project results of a multinational company in Turkey.
Abstract
Purpose
The overall aim of the research is to provide an assessment of the level of the reported success of foresight project results of a multinational company in Turkey.
Design/methodology/approach
The model of assessment is based on an integrated framework characterized by approaching foresight as a project and associating it by the redefined pitfalls in, and success factors of, corporate foresight projects in order to facilitate better conversion of their results into actual changes in corporations. A multinational company in Turkey (Siemens Turkey) is chosen for the exploratory case study. The exploratory assessment model was designed via the use of a survey questionnaire, a case study, and interviews of managers (who were involved in the corporate foresight project).
Findings
Results of the individual assessment of corporate foresight project at the company were labeled as “successful”. There needs to be given an overall attention to the process‐oriented elements of the foresight project. Pitfalls in the foundation phase accumulated the highest problem area, suggesting that the total project would eventually suffer.
Research limitations/implications
One of the limitations of the study is the use of a single case with an attempt to assess the pitfalls of the foresight projects. The exploratory study may include premature conclusions about the assessment of corporate foresight project results, yet a single case can imply generalizable insights. The authors believe this research suggests some potentially significant insights for foresight studies and their applications.
Practical implications
The study may help to support the reliability of the foresight studies as they have been implemented and might bring a new methodological challenge on the quality and success of the corporate foresight project results.
Social implications
The approach described the factors affecting the success of corporate foresight activities with respect to understanding the pitfalls of foresight projects. Taking reference to such a framework, foresight results may be better delivered and disseminated in corporations with concrete results and actual changes in organizations. The model of assessment may be used to analyze the level of the reported success of foresight project results in companies implementing foresight activities.
Originality/value
Although foresight studies within businesses has become more important and widespread with its systematic and continuous/participatory approach, based on a variety of methods, it is still a partially explored area in terms of research with mainly descriptive studies.
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Reza Hafezi, Ahmad Borumand Kakhki, Maziar Attari, Zohreh Besharati Rad and Ashraf Sadat Pasandideh
Many devices needed electrical power to work, thus, major energy carriers such as oil and gas were used to generate electrical power via converter mechanisms and special…
Abstract
Purpose
Many devices needed electrical power to work, thus, major energy carriers such as oil and gas were used to generate electrical power via converter mechanisms and special technologies. The microturbine is a developed technology that is remarkable for its relatively high performance and ability to use several types of fuels. Microturbines are economically feasible because of the production of combined heat and power and small-scale applicability. This study aims to investigate microturbine technology development to support modern energy access in a developing country (i.e. Iran).
Design/methodology/approach
This paper presents a technology foresight methodology to create plausible futures of microturbine development in Iran when the country faces different driving forces and uncertainties. On other hand, the paper deals with a theoretical question: how to select appropriate foresight methodology? A procedure is proposed, which equipped the research team to select appropriate method combinations based on Popper’s diamond. Finally, the selected methodology includes defining focal issues environmental scanning and patent analysis aimed at developing five plausible scenarios for microturbine development future in Iran and creating shared visions among policymakers.
Findings
This paper proposed a series of scenarios on the path to developing microturbine technology. The scenario development logic in a participatory way contains a common four-quarter technique that attempts to depict scenarios based on two critical uncertainties inclusive energy price and technology obsolescence, which will shape the future. Also, a scenario is presented to describe a wild card that can disturb the desired futures. Such materials help decision-makers to policies under plausible conditions that guarantee a robust policy basket.
Originality/value
The originality of this paper can be studied based on two aspects, first, the methodology that provides a systematic method selections procedure in an emerging complex technology development program. Second, from the practical aspect, this paper is one of the very first attempts to manage the microturbine technology development program. Then, results are used to feed the policy-making process in Iran.
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Juan Felipe Parra, Alejandro Valencia-Arias and Jonathan Bermúdez-Hernández
Entrepreneurial intention is one of the main predictors of venture creation. However, the approaches used to analyze the entrepreneurial intention and venture creation are mostly…
Abstract
Purpose
Entrepreneurial intention is one of the main predictors of venture creation. However, the approaches used to analyze the entrepreneurial intention and venture creation are mostly linear approaches, leaving aside the fact that new ventures arise in a context characterized by fluctuations and instability, especially in emerging economies where economic and social factors are highly variables. Nevertheless, a dynamic approach could best represent its behavior. This study aims to propose an alternative approach and a starting point for more complex dynamic models in the entrepreneurship process that surpass the limitation of the current linear methodologies and allow gathering isolated studies' contributions.
Design/methodology/approach
This study proposes a method to shed light on the processes related to the venture creation process and entrepreneurial intention by designing a system dynamics simulation model.
Findings
The results reveal that the delayed effect of expectations produces a growing tendency in project creation, venture establishment and venture creation. Likewise, the entrepreneurial intention is not a static variable; it changes by the system’s dynamics and disturbs the venture creation process, which produces an increase in oscillations in the model and, therefore, reduces the project’s growth and venture creation.
Research limitations/implications
This model is a generic approach for the study of venture creation and entrepreneurial intention. The model can analyze entrepreneurial intention and venture creation in different contexts, adjusting the different model parameters. The authors run a sensitivity analysis to encompass deviation from the parameter established and the uncertainty about them. However, the empirical data used for the model’s testing, in this case, correspond to an approximation to the behavior of venture creation in Colombia, which is considered an emerging economy. The model proposed does not pretend to incorporate all the variables and phenomena about entrepreneurship.
Originality/value
The approach suggested in this work aims to conceptualize venture creation as a complex process that emerges from the occurrence and combination of simpler states, instead of activities that represent building blocks. In addition, the term “entrepreneurial process” is defined as a composite of different perspectives that use a series of multidisciplinary theories to address the topic.