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The purpose of this paper is to provide some new empirical evidence on the weekend effect (one of the best known anomalies in financial markets) in Ukrainian futures prices. The analysis uses various statistical techniques.

The analysis uses various statistical techniques (average analysis, Student’s t-test, dummy variables, and fractional integration) to test for the presence of this anomaly, and then a trading simulation approach to establish whether it can be exploited to make extra profits.

The statistical evidence points to abnormal positive returns on Fridays, and a trading strategy based on this anomaly is shown to generate annual profits of up to 25 per cent. The implication is that the Ukrainian stock market is inefficient.

This paper provides some new empirical evidence on the weekend effect (one of the best known anomalies in financial markets) in Ukrainian futures prices. The analysis uses various statistical techniques (average analysis, Student’s t-test, dummy variables, and fractional integration) to test for the presence of this anomaly, and then a trading simulation approach to establish whether it can be exploited to make extra profits. The statistical evidence points to abnormal positive returns on Fridays, and a trading strategy based on this anomaly is shown to generate annual profits of up to 25 per cent. The implication is that the Ukrainian stock market is inefficient.

In particular, in this article, the authors investigate the degree of persistence in the credit-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio in 44 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies in the context of nonlinear deterministic trends.

The authors use Chebyshev's polynomials in time, which allow us to model changes in the data in a smoother way than by structural breaks.

This study’s results indicate that approximately one-quarter of the series display non-linear structures, and only Argentina displays a mean reverting pattern.

Policy implications of the results obtained are discussed at the end of the manuscript.

The authors use an approach developed that allows for non-linear trends based on Chebyshev polynomials in time, with the residuals being fractionally integrated or integrated of order d, where d can be any real value.

This paper aims to analyse the persistence of the S&P500 and DAX 30 stock indices as well as of the Fed’s Effective Federal Funds rate and of the European Central Bank’s Marginal Lending Facility rate, and the long-run linkages between stock prices and interest rates in the USA and Europe, respectively.

The methodology is based on the concepts of fractional integration and cointegration.

Using monthly data from January 1999 to December 2022, the results can be summarised as follows. All series examined are non-stationary: stock prices are found to be I(1) while interest rates display orders of integration substantially above 1, which implies a rejection of the hypothesis of mean reversion in all cases examined.

This paper uses an appropriate econometric framework to obtain new, reliable empirical evidence. All four series are highly persistent, and mean reversion does not occur in any single case. Moreover, the fractional cointegration analysis suggests that stock prices and interest rates are not linked in the long run.

This paper aims to investigate the production of sugar cane ethanol in Brazil for the time period 1983-2016, separating the data by geographical location.

For this purpose, the authors use techniques based on the concept of fractional integration.

The authors show that the data corresponding to the total production is highly persistent, with an integration order smaller than 1 but close to it. In fact, the unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected implying that shocks have a permanent nature, and thus requiring policy measures to recover the level from exogenous shocks. Separating the data into two sub-regions, namely, North–Northeast and Central–South, higher levels of persistence are detected in the latter, while the former presents some evidence of mean reverting behavior, implying that shocks will disappear by themselves in the long run in the former regions. These results are obtained from all the different methods used.

The originality is based on the time series techniques used in the paper that departs from the classical methods based on unit roots and integer degrees of differentiation.

Using data from 1820 onwards in a group of seven countries, namely, Australia, Chile, Denmark, France, the UK, Italy and the USA, the authors investigate if there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the two variables (GDP and population).

Using fractional integration and cointegration methods, this paper deals with the analysis of the relationship between GDP and population using historical data.

The authors’ results show first that the two series are highly persistent, presenting orders of integration close to or above 1 in practically all cases. Testing cointegration between the two variables, the results are quite variable depending on the methodology and the bandwidth numbers used, but if cointegration takes places, it only occurs in the cases of France, Italy and the UK.

The fact that the orders of integration of all series is close to 1 indicate high levels of persistence with shocks having permanent effects and requiring strong measures to recover the original trends.

Any shock affecting the series will have a permanent nature, persisting forever.

Updated time series techniques based on concepts such as fractional integration and cointegration are used.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of persistence in four precious metal prices (i.e. gold, palladium, platinum and silver) during the last four US recessions.

Using daily price data for gold, palladium, platinum and silver running from July 2, 1990, to March 21, 2022, and dating of business cycles in the USA provided by NBER (2022), the paper uses fractional integration to test the degree of persistence of precious metal prices.

The empirical analysis shows the unrelenting prominence of gold in relation to other precious metals (palladium, platinum and silver) as a hedge against market uncertainty in the post-pandemic new era.

Two are the main contributions of the paper. Firstly, the authors contribute to the commodity markets and finance literature on precious metal price modelling. Secondly, the authors also contribute to the literature on commodity markets and business cycles with a special focus on recessionary periods.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether there exist multiple bubbles in the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) stock markets.

In this study, the authors apply the generalized sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, a new recursive test proposed by Phillips et al. (2015) and use monthly data on stock price-dividend ratio.

The empirical results indicate that there exist multiple bubbles in the stock markets of the BRICS. Further, the dates of the bubbles also correspond to specific events in the stock markets of these economies. This finding has important economic and policy implications.

The authors declare that this paper is original and has not been published by another journal previously.

The purpose of the paper is to examine the seasonal structure in the German monetary aggregate M1 and output by means of fractional integration techniques.

The authors use a version of the tests of Robinson that permits testing seasonal I (d) models with the possibility of incorporating seasonal dummy variables and structural breaks.

The results show that there is a strong degree of persistence in their behaviour, especially at the long run or zero frequency, with orders of integration ranging between 1.25 and 1.50.

The main innovation in this work is the use of a new time series approach to the case of seasonality.

Pakistan suffered with the menace of terrorism for long and become a front line state in the “War on Terror”. Terrorism shattered Pakistan economy and rendered her external sector vulnerable to instability and uncertainties.

Therefore, using system generalized method of moment (GMM), this paper investigates the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on exports, imports and trade deficit in the face of unabated terrorism in Pakistan.

The findings of the paper suggest that as terrorism in Pakistan increased, FDI contribution to Pakistan exports decreased while FDI contribution to Pakistan imports significantly increased. Terrorism also disrupted the chain of local production and increased Pakistan reliance on imports. Thus terrorism widened Pakistan trade deficit of Pakistan and expose Pakistan to external imbalances.

Despite rise in organized acts of terrorism and its adverse impact on various departments of economy, hardly any study bothers to check its impact on trade and investment nexus. This is the first study of its nature that looks deep down to understand how terrorism affects the relation of major economic variables.

The purpose of this study is to determine whether the Ottoman Empire’s net interest payments and foreign debt were sustainable or not in terms of their burden on budget revenues, using the method of historical econometric analysis.

In this study, the period between 1847 and 1882 of the Ottoman Empire is analyzed for sustainability analysis. Within the framework of the study, unit root tests and econometric analysis methods frequently used in the literature were used to analyze the sustainability of public debt. In the econometric analysis, in addition to various unit root tests, current econometric analysis methods, in particular Fourier expansion, were also used.

The results of econometric analyses showed that the burden of interest payments and foreign debt on the budget of the Ottoman state was unsustainable. This situation clearly shows the reason for the official bankruptcy of the Ottoman Empire, which was declared in 1875.

Although this study reveals the bankruptcy process of an important structure such as the Ottoman Empire in the historical process through econometric analyses, it also gives a very important message to today’s states. Accordingly, today’s state policies and decision-making mechanisms should take these results into account and strive to make the burden of public interest payments sustainable. It is believed that the study will shed light on the public finance policies of today’s states by drawing lessons from the collapse process of the Ottoman state.

Unlike the historical assessments in the literature on the decline of the Ottoman Empire, this study presents a cliometric approach by applying current econometric analysis techniques to past historical data. The study explains the unsustainability of the Ottoman Empire’s interest payments and external debt burden in the period under consideration in a way that, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, has not been done before.