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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of six determinants on taxpayers' intention to adopt e‐file systems. The proposed model integrates technology adoption factors from the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) model with personal perceptions on trust, efficacy, and security into one parsimonious yet explanatory model of e‐file adoption.

A survey was administered to 304 US taxpayers to capture their perceptions of e‐filing. The survey was developed using existing scales in the literature. Responses were measured on a seven‐point Likert scale, ranging from 1 (strongly disagree) to 7 (strongly agree). The results were tested using multiple linear regression analysis.

The findings of this research show that theoretical constructs from the UTAUT model are well suited in explaining intentions to use multiple e‐government services. Specifically, the results indicate that three factors from the UTAUT model (performance expectancy, effort expectancy, and social influence) play a significant role in predicting taxpayers' e‐filing intentions. More importantly, the research findings indicate that personal factors (web‐specific self‐efficacy (WSSE) and perceived security control), along with UTAUT factors, have a significant impact on taxpayers' e‐file intentions. The proposed model explains 63.5 percent of the variance in taxpayers' e‐file intentions.

This study contributes to the literature by integrating determinants from the UTAUT model with personal perception factors to explain e‐file adoption. This merging of UTAUT with theories, such as social cognition, that emphasize human perception, is the direction that must be taken by researchers in an effort to understand taxpayers' intentions to adopt e‐file systems. While the proposed model explained 63.5 percent of the variation in e‐file use intention, there are limitations to this research. The participants in this research are not sufficiently diverse in culture, socio‐economic level, etc. and 89 percent of the research participants are Caucasian. In addition, the participants were recruited from limited geographical locations. The strength of the model should be validated using more diverse research participants that will increase the variation in the data collected.

The paper presents a parsimonious, yet integrated, model of e‐file diffusion. The integration of adoption factors with personal perceptions of trust, efficacy, and security represents a significant step forward in explaining e‐file adoption.

The US Congress set the original goal that 80 per cent of all tax returns should to be filed electronically for the 2007 tax year. Unfortunately, only 70 per cent of the total returns were electronically filed (e-filed) in 2017. This paper aims to examine the longitudinal progress of total tax returns e-filed by individuals, businesses and “other” categories for the period from 2004 to 2017 and projects a timeline to attain the goal.

A comprehensive computation and analysis were performed for the volume, ratios and growth of e-filing for the major types of return. A parallel analysis was performed for the business categories. Applying various time series and exponential smoothing forecasting models, the authors projected major return e-filings for the forecast horizons from 2018 to 2025.

First, individual tax returns filed electronically have attained the target goal of 80 per cent since 2012, the extended deadline by Congress, so have corporations and partnerships for Fiscal Year 2017. Second, both the e-file volume and e-file rate for the grand total, individuals and businesses exhibit monotonically increasing trends over the sample period. Third, of the grand e-filings, individual returns constitute the vast majority of 84 per cent, while business e-files are less than 12 per cent.

This study is a holistic and comprehensive analysis of the adoption of e-filing in the USA. From the longitudinal analysis and the variety of forecasting models applied, the results show that the focus should be on the employment tax e-file as it stands at only 41 per cent for 2017 due to few mandates, while the returns make up 65 per cent of total business returns. The authors projected that the grand total e-filing will attain the Congressional goal of 80 per cent by 2020 along with proposed strategies and recommendations.