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Article
Publication date: 6 November 2017

Wenjie Dong, Sifeng Liu, Zhigeng Fang, Xiaoyu Yang, Qian Hu and Liangyan Tao

The purpose of this paper is to clarify several commonly used quality cost models based on Juran’s characteristic curve. Through mathematical deduction, the lowest point of…

195

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to clarify several commonly used quality cost models based on Juran’s characteristic curve. Through mathematical deduction, the lowest point of quality cost and the lowest level of quality level (often depicted by qualification rate) can be obtained. This paper also aims to introduce a new prediction model, namely discrete grey model (DGM), to forecast the changing trend of quality cost.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper comes to the conclusion by means of mathematical deduction. To make it more clear, the authors get the lowest quality level and the lowest quality cost by taking the derivative of the equation of quality cost and quality level. By introducing the weakening buffer operator, the authors can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of DGM.

Findings

This paper demonstrates that DGM can be used to forecast quality cost based on Juran’s cost characteristic curve, especially when the authors do not have much information or the sample capacity is rather small. When operated by practical weakening buffer operator, the randomness of time series can be obviously weakened and the prediction accuracy can be significantly improved.

Practical implications

This paper uses a real case from a literature to verify the validity of discrete grey forecasting model, getting the conclusion that there is a certain degree of feasibility and rationality of DGM to forecast the variation tendency of quality cost.

Originality/value

This paper perfects the theory of quality cost based on Juran’s characteristic curve and expands the scope of application of grey system theory.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 7 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

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Article
Publication date: 10 November 2022

Sifeng Liu, Yong Tao, Naiming Xie, Liangyan Tao and Mingli Hu

The purpose of this paper is to summarize the advances in grey system theory research and various application achievements in science and engineering. At the same time, it…

344

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to summarize the advances in grey system theory research and various application achievements in science and engineering. At the same time, it commemorates the 40th anniversary of the birth of grey system theory and the 10th anniversary of Grey Systems–Theory and Application.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, the innovations of theoretical research in grey system theory were summarized and some of the widely recognized new results are briefly described. By searching and combing the research results of grey system theory in China national knowledge infrastructure (CNKI) database and Web of Science by Institute for Scientific Information (ISI), this paper shows the rapid development trend of grey system theory in the past 40 years, and the successful applications of grey system theory in the fields of social sciences, natural sciences and engineering technologies.

Findings

More than 227 thousands literature were found by input 10 phrases such as grey system, grey number and sequence operator etc. in CNKI database. After entering the new century, the number of grey system papers included in CNKI database is increasing rapidly. Since 2008, more than 10 thousands papers have been included per year and more than 15 thousands papers have been included per year since 2014. Grey system method and model are widely used in physics, chemistry, biology and other fields of natural science, as well as transportation, electric power, machinery and other fields of engineering technology, and a large number of valuable results have been achieved.

Practical implications

It can be seen that the grey system theory plays an important role in promoting China’s scientific and technological progress, innovation and development and high-level talent training from tens of thousands of literatures marked with important national science and technology projects and a large number of grey system literatures published by China’s double first-class universities and double first-class discipline construction universities.

Originality/value

Both innovations of theoretical research and practical application play important role in the growth of new theory. The innovations of theoretical research provide methods and tools for practical application, which is conducive to improve application efficiency and broaden application fields. A large number of practical applications needs have become the source of theoretical innovation and the solid background for the birth of theoretical innovation achievements.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 12 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

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Article
Publication date: 22 September 2023

Weiliang Zhang, Sifeng Liu, Junliang Du, Liangyan Tao and Wenjie Dong

The purpose of this study is to advance a novel evaluation index system and evaluation approach for ability of older adults in China.

84

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to advance a novel evaluation index system and evaluation approach for ability of older adults in China.

Design/methodology/approach

This study constructed a comprehensive older adult ability evaluation index system with 4 primary indicators and 17 secondary indicators. Grey clustering analysis and entropy weight method are combined into a robust evaluation model for the ability of older adults.

Findings

The result demonstrates that the proposed grey clustering model is readily available to calculate the disability level of elderly individuals. The constructed index system more comprehensively considers all aspects of the disability of the elderly.

Originality/value

This study provides a quantitative method and a more reasonable index system for the determination of the disability level of the elderly.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 19 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

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Article
Publication date: 6 November 2017

Heng Shao, Zhigeng Fang, Qin Zhang, Qian Hu, Jiajia Cai and Liangyan Tao

As productions show characteristics of multi-varieties and small batch in a recent new product system, it is more difficult to acquire its failure rate data. With the help of…

108

Abstract

Purpose

As productions show characteristics of multi-varieties and small batch in a recent new product system, it is more difficult to acquire its failure rate data. With the help of expert experience information, the authors can get the interval estimation of failure rate data under different methods, so how to make the interval convergence with the new information is an important problem to be solved. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the concept of generalized standard grey number is used to characterize the multi-source heterogeneous uncertainty failure rate data into a unified framework. Then, the engineering construction method is used to calculate the average failure rate and build the grey exponential distribution reliability function, whose image is presented as the possible region of the two-curve envelope.

Findings

Further, according to the normal distribution assumption of the regional convergence based on the information supplement, the convergence problem of the reliability function is transformed into the convergence of the area of the curve envelope region, and construct the multi-objective programming model with the minimum envelope area and the lowest total cost of information acquisition, acquire the conclusion that the failure rate is equal to the nuclear of the average failure rate when the envelope region converges.

Originality/value

Through the case analysis of the equipment ejection system of the Harbinger system, five groups of results are obtained by Matlab simulation, which verify the rationality and feasibility of the model described in this paper.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 7 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

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Article
Publication date: 7 April 2020

Yuhang Zhang, Chang Liu, Tingting Xu, Yan Huang and Liangyan Tao

The technical level of aircraft failure analysis plays a special role in ensuring the safety of civil aviation flight. Using appropriate methods for functional failures analysis…

209

Abstract

Purpose

The technical level of aircraft failure analysis plays a special role in ensuring the safety of civil aviation flight. Using appropriate methods for functional failures analysis can provide a reliable reference for aircraft safety. The purpose of this paper is to provide a new and comprehensive measure based on conventional functional hazard analysis (FHA) and grey system theory to analysis and evaluate the class that each failure belongs to.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper integrates multiple methods including the FHA, the fixed weight cluster, the Delphi method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). To begin with, use FHA method to sort out the corresponding failure states of a certain system from the perspective of function and determine the evaluation index. And then using group decision and AHP, determine the expert weight and index weight in the fixed weight cluster. The fixed weight cluster function is used to determine the grey class to which a certain functional failure belongs in the complex system.

Findings

In the past, the risk assessment of aircraft was mostly dominated by the subjective judgment of the experts, but it was not possible to give an objective observation score for each failure state. This paper addresses the problem efficiently as well as the feature of “little data, poor information.” The risk degree of each failure state can ultimately be replaced by a quantitative value.

Research limitations/implications

This paper uses the idea of clustering in grey system theory to evaluate the risk of landing gear system. In the expert evaluation stage, different experts evaluated the impact degree of the aircraft's failure caused by its functions, so the final risk classification is subjective to some extent.

Practical implications

This study analyzed the different conditions of the landing gear, including the front wheel steering, front wheel damping, front wheel steering system, brake system fault information and so on. It can effectively divide the different failure states and their effects, which is helpful to improve the safety of aircraft landing gear system and provide some useful methods and ideas for studying the safety of aircraft systems.

Social implications

Based on the FHA analysis process and the grey system theory, this paper determines various potential risks and their consequences of various functions according to the hierarchy, so as to carry out further detailed analysis on the risks that may occur under various functional conditions and take certain measures to prevent them. It is helpful to improve the risk management and control ability of aircraft in the actual flight process and to guarantee the safety of people's lives and property.

Originality/value

This paper is a pioneer in integrating the FHA method and the grey system theory, which exactly can be used to address the problem with the character of “little data, poor information.” The model established in this paper for the defects of FHA can effectively improve the accuracy of FHA, which is of great significance for the study of safety. In this paper, a case about landing gear system is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the model.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 10 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

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Article
Publication date: 21 July 2020

Saad Ahmed Javed, Muhammad Ikram, Liangyan Tao and Sifeng Liu

Tourism industry is a highly complex system surrounded by many uncertainties because of its innumerable connections with other supporting systems. Considering tourism, a grey…

326

Abstract

Purpose

Tourism industry is a highly complex system surrounded by many uncertainties because of its innumerable connections with other supporting systems. Considering tourism, a grey system, the current study proposes optimistic–pessimistic method (OPM). This technique can aid in improving forecast accuracy of four tourism-related indicators, inbound tourism to China, outbound tourism from China, revenues collected through inbound tourism and expenses incurred on outbound tourism.

Design/methodology/approach

The study integrates OPM into EGM and then using the secondary data collected from the World Bank database, predicts the four tourism-related indicators. The mean absolute percentage error steered the performance of the models.

Findings

One of the main contributions of the study lies in its overall evaluation of one of the major travel and tourism countries of the world in light of four crucial indicators. The study highlights, four tourism-related indicators' recent information, contains more valuable information about the future.

Originality/value

OPM represents a novel application of concept of whitenization of interval grey number in grey forecasting theory.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

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Article
Publication date: 4 May 2023

Zeping Wang, Hengte Du, Liangyan Tao and Saad Ahmed Javed

The traditional failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) has some limitations, such as the neglect of relevant historical data, subjective use of rating numbering and the less…

286

Abstract

Purpose

The traditional failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) has some limitations, such as the neglect of relevant historical data, subjective use of rating numbering and the less rationality and accuracy of the Risk Priority Number. The current study proposes a machine learning–enhanced FMEA (ML-FMEA) method based on a popular machine learning tool, Waikato environment for knowledge analysis (WEKA).

Design/methodology/approach

This work uses the collected FMEA historical data to predict the probability of component/product failure risk by machine learning based on different commonly used classifiers. To compare the correct classification rate of ML-FMEA based on different classifiers, the 10-fold cross-validation is employed. Moreover, the prediction error is estimated by repeated experiments with different random seeds under varying initialization settings. Finally, the case of the submersible pump in Bhattacharjee et al. (2020) is utilized to test the performance of the proposed method.

Findings

The results show that ML-FMEA, based on most of the commonly used classifiers, outperforms the Bhattacharjee model. For example, the ML-FMEA based on Random Committee improves the correct classification rate from 77.47 to 90.09 per cent and area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) from 80.9 to 91.8 per cent, respectively.

Originality/value

The proposed method not only enables the decision-maker to use the historical failure data and predict the probability of the risk of failure but also may pave a new way for the application of machine learning techniques in FMEA.

Details

Data Technologies and Applications, vol. 58 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-9288

Keywords

Available. Open Access. Open Access
Article
Publication date: 7 June 2021

Saad Ahmed Javed, Yu Bo, Liangyan Tao and Wenjie Dong

Global supply chains experienced unprecedented changes in 2020 and the relationship between domestic and global markets needed adjustments considering the long-term impacts of the…

8427

Abstract

Purpose

Global supply chains experienced unprecedented changes in 2020 and the relationship between domestic and global markets needed adjustments considering the long-term impacts of the changes that are unfolding around these markets. China has become the first country to announce a formal strategy – “Dual Circulation” Strategy (DCS) – to guide its self-reliant economic development in the post-COVID era. However, what exactly is the DCS and what drove China to publicize this strategy is not yet clear. This study aims to answer these questions.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on an extensive review of literature and media reports, a background has been constructed that justifies the DCS as a long-overdue historic necessity.

Findings

A novel definition of “Dual Circulation” is introduced. A novel construct to visualize the domestic circulation in light of international and domestic markets and international circulation has been presented. The study argues that maintaining optimum levels of consumption and saving rates is crucial to the DCS’s success.

Originality/value

The study pioneers the first scientific definition of the “Dual Circulation” that will pave way for future debate on the topic. Also, it is the first time an academic study on the DCS has been executed.

Details

Rajagiri Management Journal, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0972-9968

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Article
Publication date: 14 June 2021

Ruirui Shao, Zhigeng Fang, Liangyan Tao, Su Gao and Weiqing You

During the service period of communication satellite systems, their performance is often degraded due to the depletion mechanism. In this paper, the grey system theory is applied…

202

Abstract

Purpose

During the service period of communication satellite systems, their performance is often degraded due to the depletion mechanism. In this paper, the grey system theory is applied to the multi-state system effectiveness evaluation and the grey Lz-transformation ADC (availability, dependability and capability) effectiveness evaluation model is constructed to address the characteristics of the communication satellite system such as different constituent subsystems, numerous states and the inaccuracy and insufficiency of data.

Design/methodology/approach

The model is based on the ADC effectiveness evaluation method, combined with the Lz transformation and uses the definite weighted function of the three-parameter interval grey number as a bridge to incorporate the possibility of system performance being greater than the task demand into the effectiveness solution algorithm. At the same time, using MATLAB (Matrix laboratory) to solve each state probability, the same performance level in the Lz transform is combined. Then, the system effectiveness is obtained by Python.

Findings

The results show that the G-Lz-ADC model constructed in this paper can accurately evaluate the effectiveness of static/dynamic systems and certain/uncertain system and also has better applicability in evaluating the effectiveness of the multi-state complex system.

Practical implications

The G-Lz-ADC effectiveness evaluation model constructed in this paper can effectively reduce the complexity of traditional effectiveness evaluation models by combining the same performance levels in the Lz-transform and solving the effectiveness of the system with the help of computer programming, providing a new method for the effectiveness evaluation of the complex MSS. At the same time, the weaknesses of the system can be identified, providing a theoretical basis for improving the system’s effectiveness.

Originality/value

The possibility solution method based on the definite weighted function comparing the two three-parameter interval grey numbers is constructed, which compensates for the traditional calculation of the probability based on numerical values and subjective preferences of decision-makers. Meanwhile, the effectiveness evaluation model integrates the basic theories of three-parameter interval grey number and its definite weighted function, Grey−Markov, grey universal generating function (GUGF), grey multi-state system (GMSS), etc., which is an innovative method to solve the effectiveness of a multi-state instantaneous communication satellite system.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 12 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 16 January 2020

Yuhang Zhang, Yan Huang, Tingting Xu, Chang Liu and Liangyan Tao

The classification of aircraft failures has been a significant part of functional hazard analysis (FHA). Aiming at the shortcomings of the traditional FHA method in the evaluation…

239

Abstract

Purpose

The classification of aircraft failures has been a significant part of functional hazard analysis (FHA). Aiming at the shortcomings of the traditional FHA method in the evaluation of aircraft risk, the purpose of this paper is to put forward a new approach by combining the gray comprehensive relation calculation method in the gray system theory with the traditional FHA in order to deal with the problem of “little data, poor information.”

Design/methodology/approach

This paper combines FHA, 1–9-scale method and gray relation analysis. At first, aircraft failure scenarios are chosen and data from experts are collected; then gray system theory is applied to find the relevance of such scenarios. Finally, the classification according to relevance is determined.

Findings

In the past, “little data, poor information” made it difficult for researchers to implement FHA. In this paper, the authors manage to deal with the problem of “poor information” and provide an approach to find the seriousness of aircraft failure.

Research limitations/implications

Due to the use of expert-evaluating methods, the classification of failures is still a little subjective and can be improved in this area. In the future, the method can be improved from the perspective of combining FMEA to analyze more complex indicators or using multisource heterogeneous solutions to solve fuzzy numbers, probabilities, gray numbers and indicators that cannot be assigned.

Practical implications

The paper uses FHA to divide the failure state and establishes a gray evaluation model of the aircraft failure state classification to verify the relevant method. Some aircraft safety design requirements are used to check the safety hazards of the aircraft during the design process, and to provide rational recommendations for the functional design of the aircraft.

Social implications

Improving the safety of aircraft is undoubtedly of great practical significance and has become a top priority in the development of the civil aviation industry. In this paper, the FHA method and the failure state of the aircraft are studied. The original FHA method is innovated by using the gray system theory applicable to the poor information state. Therefore, to some extent, this study has significance for improving the safety of civil aircraft flight, ensuring people’s travel safety and enhancing the society’s trust in civil aviation.

Originality/value

The main innovation of this paper is integrating the FHA method and the gray system theory. This study calculates the comprehensive relation degree of each failure under different flight stages, and uses FHA to divide the failure state, and finally establishes a gray evaluation model of the aircraft failure state classification to analyze the different conditions of the landing gear brake system, so that it improves the present situation, and the problem with the character of “little data, poor information” can be addressed better.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

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