The damping accumulated discrete MGM(1, m) power model is proposed for the problem of forecasting the share of agricultural output value and the share of employment in China.
Abstract
Purpose
The damping accumulated discrete MGM(1, m) power model is proposed for the problem of forecasting the share of agricultural output value and the share of employment in China.
Design/methodology/approach
In this study, the damping accumulated discrete MGM(1, m) power model was developed based on the idea of discrete modelling by introducing a damping accumulated generating operator and power index. The new model can better identify the non-linear characteristics existing between different factors in the multivariate system and can accurately describe and forecast the trend of changes between data series and each of them.
Findings
The validity and rationality of the new model are verified through numerical experiment. It is forecasted that in 2023, the share of agricultural output value in China will be 7.14% and the share of agricultural employment will be 21.98%, with an overall decreasing trend.
Practical implications
The simultaneous decline in the share of agricultural output value and the share of employment is a common feature of countries that have achieved agricultural modernisation. Accurate forecasts of the share of agricultural output value and the share of employment can provide an important scientific basis for formulating appropriate agricultural development targets and policies in China.
Originality/value
The new model proposed in this study fully considers the importance of new information and has higher stability. The differential evolutionary algorithm was used to optimise the model parameters.