Chien-Hung Chen, Nicholas Lee, Fu-Min Chang and Li-Peng Lan
This study aims to examine whether global gold futures returns volatilities and trading activities are threshold cointegrated.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine whether global gold futures returns volatilities and trading activities are threshold cointegrated.
Design/methodology/approach
This study considers 11 gold futures markets, including 3 developed futures markets and 8 developing futures markets. This study also analyzes futures trading activities for speculators and hedgers. This study uses a nonlinear threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) and a threshold Lagrange multiplier (LM) test proposed by Hansen and Seo (2002).
Findings
The findings show that global gold futures return volatilities (FRV) and trading activities are not always threshold cointegrated. Most developed futures markets exhibit threshold cointegrated of gold FRV and trading activities for speculators and hedgers, whereas some developing futures markets exhibit threshold cointegrated. It suggests that speculators and hedgers trading activity conveys valuable information about changes in market volatility dynamics. On the other hand, responses to error-correction effect among gold FRV and trading activities for speculators and hedgers are dramatically different for developed and developing gold futures markets, respectively, particular in the unusual regime.
Research limitations/implications
Research results show that threshold cointegration between global gold FRV and trading activities matters but not always. Thus, threshold relations have improved the authors’ understanding of global gold futures price discovery process with a threshold. For research limitations, this study uses only near month futures contracts, as it contains more information but not using far month contracts.
Practical implications
The findings may have important trading implications with additional insights in a(n) (un)usual regime further regulation may be detrimental to the price responsiveness in futures markets if increased price volatility and trading volume are attributed to liquid and efficient markets.
Social implications
The findings may have important policy implications with additional insights. For example, in a(n) (un)usual regime greater regulatory restrictions may be warranted to decrease market inefficiencies if increased price fluctuations are caused by increased trading volume. Policymakers could enhance futures trading liquidity or restrict speculating positions.
Originality/value
This study examines whether global gold futures returns volatilities and trading activities are threshold cointegrated by using a nonlinear TVECM. The authors detect that some global gold futures returns volatilities and trading activities are threshold cointegrated but some are not. Hence, the findings determine whether the volatility–volume threshold relation holds across countries and investigate the determinants of cross-country differences in different traders.
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Hui-Wen Deng and Kwok Wah Cheung
The National People’s Congress (NPC) of People’s Republic of China, the highest organ of state power, is popularly seen as a rubber-stamp entity. However, it has been…
Abstract
Purpose
The National People’s Congress (NPC) of People’s Republic of China, the highest organ of state power, is popularly seen as a rubber-stamp entity. However, it has been substantially evolving its roles to accommodate the governance discourses within China’s political system over the decades. This study aims to explore the changes of governance discourse of the NPC within China’s political system through which to offer a thorough understanding of the NPC’s evolving substantial role in current China.
Design/methodology/approach
This study deploys a historical approach to explore the changes of governance discourse of the NPC that has seen a growing importance in China’s political agenda, as argued by this study.
Findings
The authors find that the NPC has been substantially evolving its role within China’s political system in which the Chinese Communist Party has created different governance discourses. Besides, the NPC and its Standing Committee have asserted its authority as a substantial actor within China’s political system. The NPC is no longer functioned as a rubber-stamp institution, though it is still popularized as a rubber stamp by many scholars.
Research limitations/implications
This study is a historical elaboration on the development of NPC under three governance discourses. It might be, to some extent, relatively descriptive in nature.
Originality/value
This study, therefore, sheds some light on a revisit on the governance discourses in current China.