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Article
Publication date: 17 October 2008

Kong Yushou, Ji Lingling, Wang Changyu, Li Liguo and Zeng Liming

To forecast the path of tropic cyclones by using a non‐linear statistical forecasting technique – the method of successive analogy.

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Abstract

Purpose

To forecast the path of tropic cyclones by using a non‐linear statistical forecasting technique – the method of successive analogy.

Design/methodology/approach

Non‐linear statistical forecasting models can describe the non‐linear relationship between the factors and the forecasting objects and the real atmospheric movement more accurately, so they usually have stronger forecasting capability. In practice, however, it is shown that the relationships between predictors and predictands sometimes are so complex that it is very difficult or even impossible to establish the kind of non‐linear mathematical model. Therefore, it is an important topic for atmospheric science to solve non‐linear prediction problem of atmospheric systems by using the non‐function model approach.

Findings

The objective and quantitative prediction of tropical cyclone moving path can be given by using the method of successive analogy, a non‐linear forecasting technique, and calculating the similarity parameters between the grayscale field and the height field.

Research limitations/implications

Further experiments are needed to verify this technique.

Practical implications

A very useful technique for solving non‐linear problem.

Originality/value

Illustrates the new technique of solving non‐linear statistic problem and its application.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 37 no. 9/10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

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