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Sub-Saharan African (SSA) stock exchanges are imperfect and inefficient. Therefore, orthodox finance theories are unable to completely explain their market returns. Such models mainly identify anomalies when applied to the sub-region. Consequently, this paper develops an original theoretical model to better explain market returns on the sub-continent.

This paper develops an alternate analytical framework that combines adaptive expectations, Keynesian LM model and modified uncovered interest parity (UIP) formulations to address empirical anomalies identified by previous literature when analyzing SSA's inefficient stock markets. Using panel data, the study first computes the fixed as well as random effects regressions and, later, a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) dynamic panel regression for further empirical analysis.

Both the fixed and random effects regression results indicate that the relative output-money supply disparity and foreign inflation-money supply growth rate spread have positive effects on market returns in SSA. On the other hand, foreign interest rates have an inverse effect. Although the GMM dynamic panel regression has similar results, it additionally finds that market returns in SSA are autoregressive. This suggests that past returns are persistent.

A key implication is that multipliers and transmission mechanisms in SSA may take longer to adjust, thereby limiting short-run market returns. Also, policymakers must encourage a critical mass of firms to list in order to enhance efficiency. Additionally, policy variables significantly influence returns. One limitation is the high market segmentation in SSA. This heightens heterogeneity, emphasizing fixed effects.

Also, the findings of this study may not apply to all emerging economies as SSA economies are highly heterogeneous.

The segmented nature of SSA stock markets may have implications for income inequality and the distribution of resources within the economy. Also, it indicates that there are limits to how firms use capital markets on the sub-continent.

This paper abstracts from the strict ideal market conditions prescribed by modern finance theories and develops an original modified UIP model. It finds that SSA stock markets may be more sensitive to policy variables, instead of determinants postulated by orthodox finance concepts. The study offers opportunities for further critical examination of returns in imperfect frontier markets.

This study investigates the influence of capital controls on financial market structure in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This is especially relevant as the former restrictions are relatively common on the sub-continent. At the same time, the sub-region’s financial markets are highly bank-based and focused on the short term, with stock markets being illiquid and stunted.

To achieve its research objectives, the study posits an original model and uses comparative statics to analyze the relation between the aforestated phenomena in a representative SSA economy. Key hypothesized conclusions derived therefrom are tested using panel econometrics.

The comparative static analysis illustrates that capital controls favor banks, making them monopolistic and inefficient. This is confirmed by the empirical investigation, as the said market restriction skews financial market structure towards a bank-dominated system.

The study limits itself to capital controls and their effects on financial market structure. It does not particularly investigate the influence of different types of these restrictions. Specifically, it dichotomizes the influence of the examined controls on bank and stock markets.

The dissimilar influence of capital controls on banks relative to stock markets is critical for decision and policymakers. This paper highlights that capital controls may have unintended adverse effects on domestic financial markets. Also, they may not be the most appropriate policy to deepen markets and enhance domestic resource retention. There is, consequently, a need to determine fitting policies that attract rather than repel financial flows. Furthermore, capital controls may engender rather than address macroeconomic misalignment.

As a social imperative, it is necessary to analyze SSA’s framework of capital restrictions to better understand how they distort market incentives and mechanisms. This would help identify adverse effects that retard social development.

This study extends existing literature by developing a novel analytical framework incorporating key characteristics of SSA economies. This helps to better understand the nature of the capital controls–financial market structure relation in imperfect market conditions.