Jung Taik Hyun, Jun Yeop Lee and Jin Young Hong
This paper examines global imbalance and rebalancing issues from the viewpoint of Korea. As IMF (2009) notes, the unwinding of global imbalance seems inevitable and, in fact, it…
Abstract
This paper examines global imbalance and rebalancing issues from the viewpoint of Korea. As IMF (2009) notes, the unwinding of global imbalance seems inevitable and, in fact, it is in progress. We illustrate that Korea, with a flexible exchange rate system and relatively balanced current accounts, has little direct linkage to global imbalance. However, we also find that Korea is not immune to the costly adjustment process of imbalance due to the triangular trade between Korea, China and the U.S. The fact that Korea is ‘indirectly’ linked to global imbalance limits Korea’s ability to cope with the situation. Boosting domestic demand, often mentioned recommendation for East Asia, is not an appropriate solution for Korea with low personal savings rate. A lot depends on China’s policy. If China reduces its dependence on U.S. market and increases domestic consumption despite unemployment risk in export manufacturing sector, it will provide Korea with an opportunity for more stable growth based on China’s final demand. Korea can also make efforts to increase economic integration and expand monetary cooperation in Asia that would help to increase consumption demands and final goods trade in the region.
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Jun Yeop Lee, Kisoon Hyun and Ling Jin
Using the Social Network Analysis(SNA) method, this paper examines inter-country relationships between countries that may be part of the New Silk Road. Based on bilateral-trade…
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Using the Social Network Analysis(SNA) method, this paper examines inter-country relationships between countries that may be part of the New Silk Road. Based on bilateral-trade data from more than 70 countries, the paper provides a more vivid understanding of overall features and effects of the New Silk Road policy. According to the results, India, Turkey, and Russia have the highest degree centrality, indicating that the success of the New Silk Road policy depends mainly on the ability of the Chinese government to incorporate these countries. Among European countries, only Germany can be successfully incorporated into the New Silk Road network. In addition, Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan show no potential as hubs in the network. Most importantly, China has a dominant position in the New Silk Road network. China's focal and dominating status is also supported by the fact that there is no change in the clustering coefficient in the network, which implies that the Chinese government has to absorb into the system those countries that are less likely to benefit from the policy.
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Using Social Network Analysis (SNA), this paper examines the inter-country airline logistics relationships in East Asia. Based on the flight schedule data, which has been gathered…
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Using Social Network Analysis (SNA), this paper examines the inter-country airline logistics relationships in East Asia. Based on the flight schedule data, which has been gathered by the authors, the overall features of airline logistics structure and the specific roles of each airport could be more clearly examined.
The main results of this paper are as follows: Beijing has the highest Degree Centrality, but excluding the domestic lines, Incheon has the highest Degree Centrality, which would imply that a relatively high Centrality of logistics for China’s airports is due to the greater number of domestic lines. The focal hub status of Incheon airport is also supported by the fact that Incheon contains the highest Betweenness Centrality.
Secondly, evaluated by the types of brokerage role, Incheon has a remarkably strong role as a liaison, which means Incheon airport functions as a transfer hub between two different regions outside of Korea. However, considering only the to/from China airline links, Hong Kong has the highest score as a liaison. These conflicting results imply that as China’s airline transportation continuously increases, Hong Kong will become a strong rival to Incheon.
Thirdly, in the analysis of Structural Hole which functions the broker and acts as a hub by linking unconnected airports, Incheon has the highest possibilities as a hub airport. However, only considering to/from China airlines, Hong Kong would dominate Incheon.
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Using Social Network Analysis (SNA), this paper examines the inter-provincial logistics relationships in China. Based on the annual data of inter-provincial railway logistics…
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Using Social Network Analysis (SNA), this paper examines the inter-provincial logistics relationships in China. Based on the annual data of inter-provincial railway logistics quantity during the period 1998-2009, the degree of interconnection between regions could imply intensified trends of regional economic integration.
The main results of the logistic relationships in China are as follows: the regional logistic interconnection, especially between western and eastern China has increased continuously, which would imply a rising national economic integration. However, the increased centralization index and the average Degree Centrality level imply that a logistics bottleneck has intensified in several hub provinces.
Secondly, logistic center provinces evaluated by the Degree Centrality have changed. In 2009, Hebei, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan and Sichuan provinces revealed the highest inward Degree Centrality. Sichuan Province is the region that most surprisingly increased its centrality.
Thirdly, the number of logistic hub provinces, evaluated by the Degree Betweenness Centrality, has increased. In 2008, Henan province was only a focal hub but in 2009, Shandong, Hubei, Sichuan provinces became logistic hubs.
Lastly, the Community Modularity which analyzed grouping structures shows that there are three time-consistent communities. This means that even though there is enhanced between-region integration, the inter-regional inter-connection is more important in explaining the regional logistic relationship.
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Jung Taik Hyun and Jun Yeop Lee
This paper examined the future prospects of China’s economic development and its impact on the East Asian Economy and the economic integration of the region. The key issue to…
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This paper examined the future prospects of China’s economic development and its impact on the East Asian Economy and the economic integration of the region. The key issue to China’s economic growth is the contradiction between the socialist political system and a market-based economy. The overall assessment is that China will be able to manage the transformation of the nation into a steadily growing market economy.
We also found that China is the key country forming a triangular trading block which has implemented the international division of labor in the North-East Asian region. China’s rapid export growth and increased market share in the world economy is not a threat but a new opportunity for the East Asian countries. The rise of China will certainly be accompanied by an expansion of a consumer market, which will also broaden business opportunities for East Asian.
Despite the interdependence between East Asian countries, a regional trading bloc embracing East Asia has not been created yet. The future prospects for realizing the vision of a regional free trade agreement in East Asia in the foreseeable future is not bright, either.
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Using the methodologies of text mining, this paper examines the implications of US and Chinese policies on bilateral trade. Official speeches by political leaders of the U.S. and…
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Using the methodologies of text mining, this paper examines the implications of US and Chinese policies on bilateral trade. Official speeches by political leaders of the U.S. and China on the issues of trade were collected and analytically examined for US-China gaps in major foreign policies, such as bilateral trade and the Belt and Road Initiative. In this paper, a term frequency-inverse document frequency word cloud, a network similarities index, machine learning-processed latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), and structural equivalence are applied to examine the meanings of the speeches. The main arguments in this paper are as follows. First, the document similarity between the speeches of Chinese and US leaders appears to be completely different. Also, while the documents from Chinese leaders are considerably similar, the documents from US leaders differ by far. Secondly, LDA topic analysis indicates that China concentrates more on international and collaborative relationships, while the U.S. has more focus on domestic and economic interests. Third, from a word hierarchy analysis, the basic words used by American and Chinese leaders are also completely different. Agriculture, farmers, automobiles, and negotiations are the basic words for American leaders, but for Chinese leaders, the basic words are planning, markets, and education.
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This editorial proposes three fundamental issues in the international economic field evoked by the US-China trade war. The first is the intensifying conflict between protectionism…
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This editorial proposes three fundamental issues in the international economic field evoked by the US-China trade war. The first is the intensifying conflict between protectionism measures and the coherence with relevant global trade rules. The second is decoupling between the US and China and subsequent evolution in the global production network. The third is the digression in the trade flow between the US and China and the resulting change in innovative capabilities and manufacturing competitiveness among major industrial countries. This editorial also offers the long-term perspective of the current global trade war and how the world encounters repercussion of openness and protectionism as well as times of prosperity and uncertainty.
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Jinhee Yoo, Jun Yeop Lee and Hwa-Joong Kim
This study aims to examine the trend of industrial competition between the US and China, which is the most crucial determinant in the future development of the global economy. For…
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This study aims to examine the trend of industrial competition between the US and China, which is the most crucial determinant in the future development of the global economy. For decades, the global economy has strengthened the global production network based on the division of labor between countries. Thus, the ripple effect of competition between the two countries should be analyzed in terms of the global production network. Therefore, this study uses the product space model, which explains the development process of industries with comparative advantage by country. We constructed the model based on the products of HS 4-digit code for the 2010–2019 period. The analysis results on the trend of the industrial competitiveness of major countries are as follows. First, the current industrial competitiveness of China is concentrated on low-tech industries. In the case of high-tech items, China shows a tendency of lower export sophistication compared to major manufacturing powerhouses such as Germany, the US, Japan, and Korea. Second, with respect to the possibility of a future industrial structure upgrade evaluated by density, the trend of China overtaking other manufacturing powerhouses is observed. As implied by the product space model, the advancement of the industrial structure through active participation in international trade enhances the industrial competitiveness. Therefore, the outcome of US-China industrial competition depends on who ensures more openness and industrial complexity.
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Prem Chhetri, Victor Gekara, Shaorong Li and Jun Yeop Lee
This editorial establishes the broader context for debating the great global convergence of world economic systems and the role of Belt and Road Initiative in shaping the…
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This editorial establishes the broader context for debating the great global convergence of world economic systems and the role of Belt and Road Initiative in shaping the reconfiguration of key global transport nodes and trade corridors. The interwoven relationships between various aspects of technological transformation, supply chain integration and demographic restructuring in shaping the global value chain and integrated production networks are theoretically and empirically probed in this special issue. The importance of technological innovation, and structural reforms are highlighted to help businesses to sustainably manage the growing supply chain complexity and the likely disruptions during the fourth industrial revolution.