Helen X.H. Bao, John L. Glascock, Sherry Z. Zhou and Lei Feng
In this research, the purpose of this paper is to assess the relative pricing behavior for land in Beijing, China. The paper sees this as important for three core reasons. First…
Abstract
Purpose
In this research, the purpose of this paper is to assess the relative pricing behavior for land in Beijing, China. The paper sees this as important for three core reasons. First, China has a strong growth economy but is still in many ways an undeveloped country and thus the paper do not have significant data about asset pricing behavior there. Second, China has not traditionally had a market-based land and property transfer system – thus, it is interesting to assess how prices are determined relative to typical market expectations. Third, the authors have extensive evidence on pricing behavior in the USA and Europe but little such evidence on China – are the same variables important in land pricing in China and are there other unique local variables.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper analyzes prices of non-industrial and industrial land separately using a comprehensive data set and a semi-parametric framework. The data and flexible model specification allow the hedonic price coefficients to be estimated more accurately.
Findings
The key results are that pricing behavior in general follows the traditional expected variables as determined by size, planning use, location and other neighborhood characteristics. However, the authors also find that land prices are associated with buyer characteristics; for example, foreign investors pay less than local investors.
Originality/value
The study fills the gap in the literature in two ways. First, this paper analyzes prices of non-industrial and industrial land separately using a comprehensive data set and a semi-parametric framework. The data and flexible model specification allow the hedonic price coefficients to be estimated more accurately. Second, and more importantly, the authors find evidences that land prices in China are determined by both market force and “Chinese characteristics.” The land market, although established only recently, is at work. In line with the literature, determinants such as size and planning uses are found to be important in determining land prices.
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Abraham Park and John L. Glascock
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of corporate real estate (CRE) asset ownership on the performances of franchise organizations.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of corporate real estate (CRE) asset ownership on the performances of franchise organizations.
Design/methodology/approach
Using data on all available US public franchise companies, the paper measured the effect of CRE ownership on the risk and return characteristics of franchise firms.
Findings
Unlike previous findings that show negative performance effects of CRE ownership in general, the paper shows positive effects for franchise organizations.
Research limitations/implications
Although the paper includes all available public franchises in the sample, the sample size is still limited.
Practical implications
The results show how CRE ownership can impact the long‐term performances of franchise organizations.
Originality/value
While most of the CRE literature focuses on theory, the paper offers positive empirical evidence of the importance of CRE ownership.
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The real estate markets in Asia have attracted significant investor attention as they have grown rapidly in recent years. Both local and foreign investors continue to display a…
Abstract
Purpose
The real estate markets in Asia have attracted significant investor attention as they have grown rapidly in recent years. Both local and foreign investors continue to display a strong appetite for Asian real estate investment projects. Given the different characteristics of listed real estate stocks, the purpose of this paper is to focus on the causal relations between the financial variables of these stocks. This financial analysis can help investors to understand the characteristics of listed real estate companies, provide implications for optimal asset allocation decisions, and also increase the predictability of portfolio returns.
Design/methodology/approach
In this research, the paper investigates the contemporaneous and causal relations between stock returns, trading volume and volatility in a domestic market context and between different national markets for listed real estate companies in seven Asian economies.
Findings
The paper finds that there are positive contemporaneous relations between trading volume and both returns and absolute returns. When the paper examines the causal relations between the financial variables, the evidence implies that current trading volume helps to explain the returns indirectly by leading return volatility; however, trading volume does not help to explain future returns directly. Extending the causality test to international markets, the listed real estate portfolios of the four Southeast Asian countries are found to be more closely correlated than those of the other three countries studied here. Among the four Southeast Asian countries, Singapore, the only developed country, is found to play an influential role, its current financial variables having predictive power for the other countries.
Originality/value
This research provides global investors with a better understanding of the Asian listed real estate market, showing that trading volume contains important information regarding returns, that the characteristics of listed real estate companies are closer to those of the financial market than those of the real estate markets, and that the markets of the major economies have extensive influence over the smaller markets. Moreover, given the scarcity of research on the performance of Asian listed real estate companies themselves, this study improves the completeness of the academic literature.
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Karyn L. Neuhauser, Wallace N. Davidson and John L. Glascock
This study seeks to analyze the differences between merger cancellations and three types of takeover failures: failures that are associated with targeted share repurchases…
Abstract
Purpose
This study seeks to analyze the differences between merger cancellations and three types of takeover failures: failures that are associated with targeted share repurchases (greenmail), failures in which the sole bidder simply withdraws the offer, and failures that are accompanied by a general share repurchase (buyback).
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses event study methods and regression analysis.
Findings
The paper observes negative target stock price reactions around all types of takeover failures and merger cancellations. However, the cumulative effect of takeover attempts is positive, suggesting that even unsuccessful tender offers generate permanent gains to target firm shareholders, while the cumulative effect of canceled mergers is negative. Furthermore, the market reaction to greenmail‐induced takeover failure announcements is no worse than that of voluntary withdrawals, suggesting that greenmail may play an efficient role in mitigating the effects of takeover bid withdrawals. Finally, while bidder wealth is destroyed in takeover failures, the effect of merger cancellations on bidders is considerably more devastating.
Originality/value
The paper provides evidence of negative stock price reactions to all forms of merger failure. The paper also shows that the cumulative effect of all types of takeover failures is still positive: suggesting that being put into play is still beneficial overall but that canceled mergers destroy value for both targets and bidders. The paper shows that the market reaction to greenmail‐induced failure announcements is no worse than other forms of failure. Finally, while there is an immediate downturn in target prices around a failure, the negative outcome is more severe for the bidders. Thus, the market sees that there was something useful about the anticipated change in corporate control, which was lost when it failed to be completed.
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Kim Hin/David Ho and Kwame Addae-Dapaah
The purpose of this paper is to help us understand the real estate cycle and offers an analysis using a vector auto regression (VAR) model. The authors study the key international…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to help us understand the real estate cycle and offers an analysis using a vector auto regression (VAR) model. The authors study the key international cities of Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. The authors find four key outcomes. One, the real estate cycle is generally different from the underlying business cycle in local markets for the cities studies. Two, the real estate cycle is more exaggerated in the construction and development areas than in rents and vacancies. Three, the vacancy cycle tends to lead the rental cycle. And four, new construction completions tend to peak when vacancy is also peaking. The authors believe that future research should try to help understand the linkages that drive these outcomes. For example, are rigidities in the local permit and construction markets responsible for the link between construction peaks and vacancy peaks?
Design/methodology/approach
Real estate market cyclical dynamics and its estimation via VAR model offers an insightful set of practical and empirical models. It affirms a comprehensive theoretical underpinning for analysing the prime office and residential sectors of the capitol cities of Kuala Lumpur, Singapore and Hong Kong in the fast developing Asia region. Its unrestricted form also provides an effective and insightful way of modelling real estate market cyclical dynamics utilising only real estate market indicators, furnished by real estate market data providers.
Findings
The office rental VAR model for Singapore (SOR), KL (KOR) and HK (HOR) show good fits. In the HOR model, rents and vacancies are negatively signed and significant for certain lagged relationships with other variables and with rents themselves. The office CV VAR model for Singapore (SOCV), KL (KOCV) and HK (HOCV) show good fits. In the HOCV model, capital values (CVs) and initial yields are negatively signed and significant for certain lagged relationships with other variables and with CVs themselves. Impulse response functions specified for seven years to mirror a medium-term real estate market cycle “die out” to zero for the stationary VAR models that are estimated for the endogenous variables. The accumulated responses asymptote to some non-zero constant.
Practical implications
The VAR model offers a complete and meaningful dynamic system of solely real estate variables for international real estate investors and policy makers in decision making. Its unrestricted form offers an effective and insightful way of modelling real estate market cyclical dynamics utilising only real estate market indicators, which can be reliably provided by a dedicated real estate information and consultancy provider of international standing.
Originality/value
The theoretical model offers a complete dynamic model system of the real estate space market, comprising a unique system of six linked equations that denote the relationship among supply, demand, construction, vacancy and rent over time, inclusive of price response slopes and lags. The VAR model enables the investigation of the effect of the lagged values of all the variables concerned. It also enables the explicit and rigorous quantitative forecasts of say rents and CVs when the rest of the variable can be forecasted beforehand.
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Sema Dube and John L. Glascock
The purpose of this research is to investigate post‐acquisition differences in share and operating performance, and in risk characteristics, for acquirers who pay cash versus…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this research is to investigate post‐acquisition differences in share and operating performance, and in risk characteristics, for acquirers who pay cash versus those who employ stock, as well as for acquirers who merge with targets as opposed to those who directly approach target shareholders to tender their shares.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses event study methodologies, incorporating recent methodological advancements, to determine the effect of the acquisition by various classes of US acquirers during 1975 to 1996, on the variables of interest, by comparing these to a benchmark of similar firms who did not acquire any targets.
Findings
Mergers, especially in conjunction with cash payments, are risk increasing transactions. Equity risk increases for cash mergers over three years following acquisitions. Mergers experience a post‐acquisition increase in the intrinsic business risk, a decline in the degree of operating leverage and a small deterioration in the operating performance. Tender offers experience, no post‐acquisition changes in risk and performance metrics. The paper finds no evidence of post‐acquisition abnormal returns.
Originality/value
The results pertaining to market efficiency and the various hypotheses for method of payment and mode of acquisition contribute to academic research, where methodological issues have been identified as the sources of the conflicting results in prior studies. Differences due to mode of acquisition and method of payment would be of interest to investors and corporate managers as well.
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Peter Rossini and Valerie Kupke
The purpose of this paper is to address a key issue fundamental to the operation of land and housing markets, that is, the relationship between land and house prices. The study…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to address a key issue fundamental to the operation of land and housing markets, that is, the relationship between land and house prices. The study identifies possible causation between established house and vacant allotment prices using the metropolitan area of Adelaide, Australia as a case study.
Design/methodology/approach
A key outcome of the study is the construction of a Site Adjusted Land Price Index against which a Quality Adjusted House Price Index is compared.
Findings
The results show that there is a lagged effect of land prices on house prices and that this is significant at an interval of eight lag periods. The results also imply that the lead lag relationship between established house and vacant allotment prices is not unidirectional. This suggests that, while a change in house prices leads to a change in land prices in the short-run, the long-run position is for increasing land prices to lead to a delayed increase in house prices.
Research limitations/implications
Rising house prices do not simply and solely reflect a shortage of land. There are suggested effects both immediate from house to land and delayed from land to house, particularly in a rising market.
Originality/value
The lead lag relationships of both indexes are tested using Granger causality estimates to assess whether theoretical Ricardian concepts still hold in a modern urban land market.
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Javier Rodríguez and Herminio Romero
The purpose of this paper is to examine the risk-adjusted performance of US-based global real estate mutual funds (GREMFs) with emphasis on their ability to manage their domestic…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the risk-adjusted performance of US-based global real estate mutual funds (GREMFs) with emphasis on their ability to manage their domestic and foreign portfolios exposures.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper applies common econometric measures of portfolio performance and implements a non-traditional methodology called attribution returns to measure forecasting ability. In this setting the paper compares the actual monthly fund return to what would have been earned by the set of indices that best reflects the fund's investment strategy during the previous month. Performance and forecasting ability is examined during two different time periods: 2001-2005 and 2006-2010.
Findings
It is found that global real estate fund managers outperform the market and show good forecasting ability during the 2001-2005 time period. Good forecasting ability translates to positive risk-adjusted performance, as attribution returns are positively correlated with α.
Originality/value
Despite the significant growth in the number of US-based GREMFs and the ample coverage these funds receive in the popular press, few studies are solely devoted to the examination of these funds. In this study the paper empirically examines the ability of fund managers to successfully forecast country/regional political and economic conditions as well as fluctuations in currency exchanges rates brought about by the changes they made to their portfolios’ domestic and foreign exposures.
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Qing Bai, Qingqing Chang and Avis Devine
In the wake of the recent financial crisis, there has been extensive commentary regarding the rise and fall of REIT leverage, how much debt REITs should use, and the trendy…
Abstract
Purpose
In the wake of the recent financial crisis, there has been extensive commentary regarding the rise and fall of REIT leverage, how much debt REITs should use, and the trendy “deleveraging” practice among REIT managers. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
Identifying the late 2000s credit crunch as a supply shock, the paper uses difference-in-difference methodology to isolate alternative firm financing strategies and investment decision responses to the shock.
Findings
Consistent with corporate survey results, this empirical analysis suggests that changes in capital structure are largely supply driven, and REIT managers “time” the debt market in response to credit conditions.
Originality/value
This research clarifies the causes of the documented leverage pattern and provides fresh insights about REIT capital structure.