Wiriya Puntub, Stefan Greiving and Joern Birkmann
The interaction between urban development and climate change significantly impacts local public health services. Unfortunately, cities and involved institutions often fail to…
Abstract
Purpose
The interaction between urban development and climate change significantly impacts local public health services. Unfortunately, cities and involved institutions often fail to prioritize and integrate spatial planning when dealing with these unprecedented future challenges. This study aims to offer Health Integrative Climate Resilience and Adaptation Future (HICRAF), an innovative planning framework that systematically operationalizes future climate risks and their impact on local public health services.
Design/methodology/approach
HICRAF is developed based on the intermix of explorative and normative scenario planning approaches. Mixed methods of quantitative and qualitative techniques were applied to develop and operationalize the local climate adaptation scenarios through stakeholder participation. The framework demonstrates how different methods and scales (spatial and temporal) can be linked to exhibit climate risk outcomes of different future pathways.
Findings
The practicality of HICRAF was demonstrated in Khon Kaen city, where it bridged the gaps between global climate trajectories and local climate adaptation scenarios. It also highlights the need to consider intertwining spatial and systemic risks in local infrastructure operations. Although HICRAF has gained political buy-in and fostered the establishment of stakeholder discourse on climate-resilient futures, further research is needed to enhance its robustness and replicability.
Originality/value
This paper proposes a novel planning framework, HICRAF, that can systematically operationalize the future challenges of unprecedented climate change and urban development changes for the local public health service. The demonstration of HICRAF in Khon Kaen city provides empirical evidence of its implementability and upscaling potential.
Details
Keywords
Joern Birkmann, Holger Sauter, Ali Jamshed, Linda Sorg, Mark Fleischhauer, Simone Sandholz, Mia Wannewitz, Stefan Greiving, Bjoern Bueter, Melanie Schneider and Matthias Garschagen
Enhancing the resilience of cities and strengthening risk-informed decision-making are defined as key within the Global Agenda 2030. Implementing risk-informed decision-making…
Abstract
Purpose
Enhancing the resilience of cities and strengthening risk-informed decision-making are defined as key within the Global Agenda 2030. Implementing risk-informed decision-making also requires the consideration of scenarios of exposure and vulnerability. Therefore, the paper presents selected scenario approaches and illustrates how such vulnerability scenarios can look like for specific indicators and how they can inform decision-making, particularly in the context of urban planning.
Design/methodology/approach
The research study uses the example of heat stress in Ludwigsburg, Germany, and adopts participatory and quantitative forecasting methods to develop scenarios for human vulnerability and exposure to heat stress.
Findings
The paper indicates that considering changes in future vulnerability of people is important to provide an appropriate information base for enhancing urban resilience through risk-informed urban planning. This can help cities to define priority areas for future urban development and to consider the socio-economic and demographic composition in their strategies.
Originality/value
The value of the research study lies in implementing new qualitative and quantitative scenario approaches for human exposure and vulnerability to strengthen risk-informed decision-making.
Details
Keywords
Ali Jamshed, Irfan Ahmad Rana, Joanna M. McMillan and Joern Birkmann
The extreme flood event of 2010 in Pakistan led to extensive internal displacement of rural communities, resulting in initiatives to resettle the displaced population in model…
Abstract
Purpose
The extreme flood event of 2010 in Pakistan led to extensive internal displacement of rural communities, resulting in initiatives to resettle the displaced population in model villages (MVs). The MV concept is quite new in the context of post-disaster resettlement and its role in building community resilience and well-being has not been explored. This study aims to assess the role of MVs in building the resilience of relocated communities, particularly looking at the differences between those developed by governmental and non-governmental organizations (NGOs).
Design/methodology/approach
Four MVs, two developed by government and two by NGOs, were selected as case studies in the severely flood-affected province of Punjab, Pakistan. A sample of 145 households from the four MVs was collected using a structured questionnaire to measure improvements in social, economic, physical and environmental domains and to form a final resilience index. Supplementary tools including expert interviews and personal observations were also used.
Findings
The analysis suggests that NGOs are more successful in improving the overall situation of relocated households than government. Core factors that increase the resilience of communities resettled by NGOs are provision of livelihood opportunities, livelihood skill development based on local market demand, training on maintenance and operation of different facilities of the MV and provision of extensive education opportunities, especially for women.
Practical implications
The results of this study can guide policymakers and development planners to overcome existing deficiencies by including the private sector and considerations of socioeconomic development whenever resettling communities.
Originality/value
In resilience discourse, resettlement of communities has been extensively debated based on qualitative arguments. This paper demonstrates an approach to quantify community resilience in a post-disaster resettlement context.
Details
Keywords
Hamid Jafari, Ahmad Jonidi Jafari, Mahmoud Nekoei-Moghadam and Salime Goharinezhad
In recent years, futures study methods, especially scenario analysis, are used to plan for disaster and emergency management. Scenario method is suitable for public level policy…
Abstract
Purpose
In recent years, futures study methods, especially scenario analysis, are used to plan for disaster and emergency management. Scenario method is suitable for public level policy making. Scenarios generated alternative descriptive futures in all of the development field such as disaster studies. This paper aims to systematically review the articles that generated scenarios in disaster management to attain gaps, challenges and opportunities related to use of scenario analysis in disasters.
Design/methodology/approach
This is a systematic review that was conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The keywords that searched included “disaster,” “emergency,” “crisis,” “disruptive event,” “futures study,” “foresight,” “scenario,” “community-based scenario planning,” “participatory scenario planning,” “scenario planning” and “scenario analysis.” The Google Scholar, ISI Web of Science, Science Direct, PubMed and Scopus databases were searched.
Findings
A total of 981 article gathered after initial search between electronic databases. At final step, only ten articles included in the study. The selected articles compared according to many aspects. Most of the scenarios that developed in disaster management and planning concentrated on climate change and flooding related hazards. Many of studies developed three or four scenarios that it seems the number is suitable for disaster planning.
Originality/value
The paper serves as an original guideline for disaster planning.