Joe Ravetz and Ian Douglas Miles
This paper aims to review the challenges of urban foresight via an analytical method: apply this to the city demonstrations on the UK Foresight Future of Cities: and explore the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to review the challenges of urban foresight via an analytical method: apply this to the city demonstrations on the UK Foresight Future of Cities: and explore the implications for ways forward.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology is based on the principles of co-evolutionary complex systems, a newly developed toolkit of “synergistic mapping and design”, and its application in a “synergy foresight” method.
Findings
The UK Foresight Future of Cities is work in progress, but some early lessons are emerging – the need for transparency in foresight method – and the wider context of strategic policy intelligence.
Practical implications
The paper has practical recommendations, and a set of propositions, (under active discussion in 2015), which are based on the analysis.
Originality/value
The paper aims to demonstrate an application of “synergy foresight” with wide benefits for cities and the communities within them.
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Abstract
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Bernadette O’Regan, Richard Moles, Ruth Kelly, Joe Ravetz and Darryn McEvoy
Research was undertaken within the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Environmental RTDI Programme during the six‐month period from March to August 2001 by a partnership…
Abstract
Research was undertaken within the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Environmental RTDI Programme during the six‐month period from March to August 2001 by a partnership formed by the Centre for Environmental Research (CER), University of Limerick, and the Centre for Urban and Regional Ecology (CURE), University of Manchester. This project aimed to inform the development of spatial policies emerging from the National Spatial Strategy (NSS) aimed at finding optimal ways in which to accommodate Ireland’s growing population in a manner consistent with balanced regional development and environmental sustainability. To obtain data and information on settlements, three modes of analysis were adopted. First, for a single city and two villages, both quantitative and qualitative data were collected to provide a comprehensive analysis of the local social, economic and physical environments, track record in enhancing sustainability, current policies in place, and the likelihood of these policies proving successful. Second, for 11 Irish settlements selected to include a range of functions and locations, 29 quantified sustainability indicators were developed and used to compare the level of sustainability achieved by settlements of differing sizes. Third, a review of international literature was undertaken to search for comparable data, models and case studies, so as to provide a context for analysis of Irish data. The framework of significant environmental themes adopted here is taken from recent Irish EPA publications. Results based on all three research methods suggest that on balance larger settlements in the recent past, at present and in the foreseeable future are more likely to create conditions in which sustainability is enhanced. This work provides the basis for a large‐scale three‐year study which commenced in March 2002, which examines the sustainability and future development patterns of settlements in Ireland.
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Sunita Bansal, Srijit Biswas and S.K. Singh
There is a tremendous growth of housing stock with subsequent resource consumption due to rapid urbanization. Most of the existing small-scale constructions have no planning…
Abstract
Purpose
There is a tremendous growth of housing stock with subsequent resource consumption due to rapid urbanization. Most of the existing small-scale constructions have no planning, leading to both environmental degradation and negligible resilience to hazards. The contemporary sustainability and green building concepts are difficult to apply to small individual housing units but a collective regional assessment can be made. The regulatory bodies need to assess regions for resiliency and sustainability to prioritize fund allocation. Due to varying housing typologies and unaccounted resource consumption, reliable spatial information/data are not available to quantify risks and sustainability. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
The fuzzy logic approach has been used here to propose a regional assessment factor to give a coarse relative status of each region (and not individual houses). The criterion considered incorporates both hazard safety and environmental aspects.
Findings
A model of fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution based on experts’ linguistic opinions has been designed with appropriate negations for prioritizing regions.
Originality/value
This paper anticipates that apart from pressing the need for increasing resilience to hazards, this simplified opinion-based tool will assist the government and administrators to prioritize and strategize their funds/efforts toward achieving safety and sustainability. Depending on the evaluation and assessment, specific retrofits can be planned and executed. The assessment may be used by NGOs working in housing sector and architects and engineering professionals or academicians.
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Farhad Analoui and Andrew Kakabadse
Discussions about conflict at work generally tend to revolve aroundexamples of overt industrial action, taken against an employer by agroup of well‐organised employees. As the…
Abstract
Discussions about conflict at work generally tend to revolve around examples of overt industrial action, taken against an employer by a group of well‐organised employees. As the service sector becomes increasingly prominent within the UK, this model is no longer adequate – if it ever was – since much action is covert and individualistic in nature. Moreover, managers themselves may also engage in activities designed to defy or subvert central policy initiatives. This monograph is concerned with an analysis of such activities in a night‐club environment, and is based on six years research during which one of the authors worked as an employee for a large service sector organisation. It illustrates graphically the way in which employees resisted management instructions, or sought to “get even” with individuals who had alienated them. The implications which this research suggests for improving systems of management in an environment such as this are assessed.
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Michaela DeSoucey and David Schleifer
This chapter addresses how small businesses resist city regulations by using material things, by making craft knowledge claims about material things, and by letting material…
Abstract
This chapter addresses how small businesses resist city regulations by using material things, by making craft knowledge claims about material things, and by letting material things organize their political activity. Chefs successfully resisted a foie gras ban in Chicago, where political resistance shaped the production and use of material things. Bakers successfully resisted a trans fat ban in Philadelphia, where material properties of things structured political resistance. We bring together analytic tools from the sociology of culture and science and technology studies to demonstrate how materiality can be both an instigator and an instrument of legal and political resistance.
Tadhg O’Mahony, Jyrki Luukkanen, Jarmo Vehmas and Jari Roy Lee Kaivo-oja
The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking…
Abstract
Purpose
The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight.
Design/methodology/approach
This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature.
Findings
Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights.
Research limitations/implications
To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk.
Practical implications
While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making.
Social implications
Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.
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Claudio Marciano, Alex Fergnani and Alberto Robiati
The purpose of this study is to propose an innovative and efficient process in urban policy-making that combines a divergent and creative method with a convergent and strategic…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to propose an innovative and efficient process in urban policy-making that combines a divergent and creative method with a convergent and strategic one. At the same time, the purpose is also to propose a useful innovation to enforce the usability of both methods. On the one hand, mission-oriented policies run the risk of being overly focused on the present and of not being able to develop preparedness in organization. On the other hand, scenario development has the reverse problem it often does not point out how to use scenario narratives to inform and devise short-term strategic actions.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper proposes an innovative methodological approach, the mission-oriented scenarios, which hybridizes Mazzucato's mission-oriented public policy framework with Jim Dator's Manoa school four futures method. The proposed methodological innovation emerges from a urban foresight academic-led project carried out in the context of the Metropolitan City of Turin, Italy, where a first application of the mission-oriented scenarios was tested on six different focal issues (from reindustrialization to cultural policies) and the scenario narratives were used as sources for the grounding of 12 missions and 48 strategic actions towards 2030.
Findings
Mission-oriented scenarios can contribute to the generation of more sustainable and inclusive urban public policies. This methodological proposal is based on an original mix of knowledge exchange procedures borrowed from methodological approaches with different backgrounds: the mission-oriented and the archetypal scenarios. Their conjunction could support the formulation of ambitious yet pragmatic policies, giving a plurality of actors the opportunity to act and establish fruitful and lasting partnerships.
Originality/value
The paper reconstructs one of the first urban foresight projects carried out in a major Italian city by two prestigious universities and exposes a methodological innovation resulting from reflection on the strengths and weaknesses of the project, which opens the door to the development of a new scenario technique.
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The purpose of this paper is to provide a conceptual framework on the relationship between corruption and development. The paper demonstrates how the impact of corruption on…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to provide a conceptual framework on the relationship between corruption and development. The paper demonstrates how the impact of corruption on economic development might vary substantially from sustainable development (SD).
Design/methodology/approach
A combination of literature-based analysis was employed by considering concepts from corruption and development. A synthesis of these two concepts leads to the development of the conceptual framework.
Findings
The findings shows that corruption originates from three main sources, and that the effect of corruption on development might differ depending on how it is conceptualized, but the spate of corruption is contingent on institutional quality and gains in previous development trajectory.
Originality/value
Relating the concept of corruption and SD and linking it to theories of development brings a sense of novelty. This paper has in its essence contributed to the conceptualization of the relationship between corruption and development which will help deepen understanding on this contentious subject. The framework will help to improve theory, research and practice in development studies and allied fields.