Ema Kelin, Tanja Istenič and Jože Sambt
Population ageing will bring economic challenges in the future. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether increased educational level could mitigate the consequences of…
Abstract
Purpose
Population ageing will bring economic challenges in the future. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether increased educational level could mitigate the consequences of population ageing on economic sustainability, measured as the gap between labour income and consumption.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) methodology, the authors decompose labour income and consumption by age and educational level (low, medium and high) and compare obtained age profiles with those calculated conventionally. In addition, using the population projections by age and educational level, the authors project both profiles to 2060 for selected EU countries and assess future economic sustainability.
Findings
The results show that the highly educated have a significantly higher surplus for a longer period then those with lower and medium education. Therefore, the improved educational level of individuals will have a substantially positive impact on labour income in the future—on average by about 32% by 2060 for all EU countries included. However, as the better educated also consume more, higher production does not fully translate into improved economic sustainability, but the resulting net effect is still positive at about 19%.
Originality/value
The authors present for the first time an NTA by education for 15 EU countries and show the importance of including education in the analysis of the economic life cycle. The authors also show that increased educational level will mitigate the consequences of population ageing on economic sustainability in the future.
Details
Keywords
Tanja Istenič, Jože Sambt and Daša Farčnik
European Union (EU) member states are dedicated to a set of sustainable development goals, among them to: (1) promote well-being for all at all the ages and (2) achieve gender…
Abstract
European Union (EU) member states are dedicated to a set of sustainable development goals, among them to: (1) promote well-being for all at all the ages and (2) achieve gender equality. This chapter uses the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) methodology that enables comprehensive measurement of intergenerational transfers, both public and private, and differences in the gender equality promotion among the countries. Our analysis is based on the fully comparable NTA results for 25 EU countries from 2010. The authors perform cluster analysis based on five indicators, measuring the importance of different types of age reallocations and the differences in gender equality promotion among the EU countries. Since the economic life cycle (showing the level of dependency) and its financing strongly depend on country-specific institutional and cultural settings, the authors link their results with the typical welfare regimes’ typology. The authors end up with three different groups of countries showing a clear north–south division of countries.
Details
Keywords
In the coming decades, the aging of European population will continue at a rapid pace. The National Transfer Accounts (NTA) methodology breaks down the income and consumption by…
Abstract
In the coming decades, the aging of European population will continue at a rapid pace. The National Transfer Accounts (NTA) methodology breaks down the income and consumption by age to analyze the impact of population aging on economic sustainability and economy in general. This chapter uses fully comparable results of NTA for 25 European Union countries in 2010 to indicate the potential increase in dependency in the future given the current institutional setting. Next to the conventionally defined demographic dependency ratio, we add (1) the NTA dependency ratio using the age patterns of production and consumption in the market and (2) the National Time Transfer Accounts dependency ratio using age patterns of production and consumption originating from unpaid work that is mostly provided within the households. The authors show that imbalances will originate from the impact of population aging on market part of the economy. Further, some imbalances will also be coming from unpaid work but of much lesser extent.