Jiayao Li, Frederick Benaben, Juanqiong Gou and Wenxin Mu
This paper introduces a formal risk interdependency framework to model cascading effects in collaborative systems. By characterizing risk causal chains and propagation chains, the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper introduces a formal risk interdependency framework to model cascading effects in collaborative systems. By characterizing risk causal chains and propagation chains, the framework aims to provide decision-makers with a structured tool to systematically identify, analyze, and prevent cascading risks in interconnected networks.
Design/methodology/approach
The framework, named the danger-risk-consequence chain, defines core components – danger, stake, risk, condition, and consequence – alongside their causal and propagation relationships, which form the basis for risk characterization. The framework is applied through a use case in the construction supply chain to demonstrate its capacity to model cascading risks.
Findings
The framework uncovers risk propagation chains that lead to cascading effects and formalizes the state evolution of these effects within collaborative systems. Through the use case, it demonstrates practical value by enabling stakeholders to visualize interrelated risks, detect vulnerabilities early, and implement targeted mitigation measures to enhance resilience against cascading disruptions.
Originality/value
This study presents a novel approach to modeling cascading effects by integrating risk causality and propagation into a formalized framework. In contrast to previous research, which offers static risk definitions for risk characterization, this framework contributes to risk management theory by providing a structured method for understanding and modeling interdependencies.
Details
Keywords
Markus Kohl, Andreas Habl, Khalil Kallali, Jakob Puff, Johannes Fottner, Raphaël Oger, Matthieu Lauras and Jiayao Li
The Covid-19 pandemic has created an environment of high uncertainty and caused major disruptions in supply chains. The new normal that has emerged during the pandemic is leading…
Abstract
Purpose
The Covid-19 pandemic has created an environment of high uncertainty and caused major disruptions in supply chains. The new normal that has emerged during the pandemic is leading to a need to identify new solutions to improve supply chain crisis management in the future. Practitioners require adapted recommendations for solutions to implement. These recommendations are laid out in this paper.
Design/methodology/approach
A combination of a systematic literature review (SLR), qualitative semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire survey of supply chain practitioners is applied. The interviews provide insights into supply chain practitioners' views of their approaches and, together with the solutions proposed in the literature, provide future recommendations for action for supply chain managers.
Findings
During the pandemic, companies experienced disruptions in supply, production and demand, as well as interruptions in transportation and distribution. The majority of the solutions proposed in the literature, coincide with the opinions of practitioners. These include collaborative risk management, real-time monitoring and information sharing, supply network management, scenario planning and “what-if” simulations.
Research limitations/implications
Although the number of interviews conducted and questionnaires completed is limited, they still serve to supplement the SLR with important practical insights and recommendations.
Originality/value
This paper presents a review of recent academic literature focusing on the impact of Covid-19 on supply chains and the existing solutions to mitigate that impact and manage future crises. It has been expanded to include industry perspectives and experiences. The findings of this study present recommended practices and strategies for better managing supply chains during a crisis.