Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon and James dator
At its best, futures research can change priorities and attitudes within organizations, and bring fresh meaning to the present. But its recommendations are not always politically…
Abstract
At its best, futures research can change priorities and attitudes within organizations, and bring fresh meaning to the present. But its recommendations are not always politically convenient, and a much‐heralded report can be just as discreetly shelved. A key role for futurists is therefore to inspire decision‐makers with alternative futures and choices, demonstrating their technical feasibility, and warning of the consequences of inaction. But behind every corporate decision there is a battle for hearts and minds – and they have rules of their own.
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Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon
The world is increasingly complex and the most serious challenges are global in nature. Questions to do with sustainable and equitable development, democratic change, terrorism…
Abstract
The world is increasingly complex and the most serious challenges are global in nature. Questions to do with sustainable and equitable development, democratic change, terrorism and transnational crime, for instance, require collaborative action among governments, international organizations, corporations, universities, and nongovernmental organizations. This article, which describes 15 global challenges compiled as part of the Millennium Project’s 2002 State of the Future report, assesses the global and local prospects for humanity.
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Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon
This article reports on an international assessment to identify and discuss environmental issues that may affect the US Army’s transformation efforts. Many factors, such as new…
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This article reports on an international assessment to identify and discuss environmental issues that may affect the US Army’s transformation efforts. Many factors, such as new kinds of weapons, increasing demands on natural resources, urbanization and globalization, are making the planning of environmental viability for life support more important in the future. The article highlights eight environmental security developments and potential military requirements to address them.
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Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon
In the aftermath of the Iraq war, global attention to the resolution of the Israeli‐Palestinian conflict has increased, but the way ahead still seems as difficult as before. The…
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In the aftermath of the Iraq war, global attention to the resolution of the Israeli‐Palestinian conflict has increased, but the way ahead still seems as difficult as before. The lack of trust on both sides has led to the development of the internationally backed “Road map for peace” that avoids direct negotiation between the parties. This inability to communicate, cooperate and compromise could be alleviated by plausible peace scenarios – stories connecting the future and present for the Middle East. This article reports on the results so far of the Millennium Project’s study to create such scenarios.
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Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon
This article presents a scenario based on the inputs of 550 futurists, scholars, business planners and policy advisers from around the world. Their views on global developments…
Abstract
This article presents a scenario based on the inputs of 550 futurists, scholars, business planners and policy advisers from around the world. Their views on global developments were distilled into a range of issues, opportunities and actions to address. These have been woven together into a scenario based on achieving norms by 2050 that were identified and rated by Millennium Project participants from around the world. This scenario describes how technological success, human development, and economic/political policies achieved a global economy that appears to be environmentally sustainable while providing nearly all people with the basic necessities of life and the majority with a comfortable living. The resulting social stability has created a relatively peaceful world and allowed the exploration of possible futures for the second half of the 21st century.
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Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon
The article seeks to address the lack of serious, normative scenarios exploring peace in the Middle East.
Abstract
Purpose
The article seeks to address the lack of serious, normative scenarios exploring peace in the Middle East.
Design/methodology/approach
Three normative, backcasted scenarios were written. These were derived from literature searches, interviews with experts in the field, and input from a three‐round Delphi. Actions were identified and rated by the Delphi panel in Rounds 1 and 2. Draft text with areas for comment throughout the scenarios was collected in Round 3 and used to improve the draft scenarios.
Findings
The scenarios address seven preconditions for peace in the Middle East: secure borders for Israel; establishment of a viable and independent Palestinian state; resolution of the Jerusalem question; ending violence by both sides and building confidence; social and economic development; education; and resolution of Palestinian refugee status.
Originality/value
The scenarios are intended for use in a variety of settings to help further the Middle East peace process.
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An account is given of futures research as a scientifically oriented field of knowledge. Its specific contemporary task as a study of transient change of the human society is…
Abstract
An account is given of futures research as a scientifically oriented field of knowledge. Its specific contemporary task as a study of transient change of the human society is described and the futures research approach is outlined. A generalization of the concept of knowledge of the standard sciences is presented as a sine qua non to futurology. The relationship between knowledge and information is elaborated and clarified, which makes it possible to better understand the present era as an information age.
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Information warfare (IW) is a novel and poorly understood threat to the international community, which may be used more commonly as a foreign policy tool in the future. By…
Abstract
Purpose
Information warfare (IW) is a novel and poorly understood threat to the international community, which may be used more commonly as a foreign policy tool in the future. By identifying the key components of modern IW, this paper seeks to formulate policy recommendations for how best to deal with this new threat. The general overview of the topic that this paper provides contributes to current efforts to develop strategies to counter IW operations around the world.
Design/methodology/approach
The goal of this paper is to break down the components of modern IW and provide policy recommendations for domestic and international governance on the issue. These recommendations will be based in part of historical initiatives to counter IW and existing literature on cyber governance. Central to the framework used to analyze the cases of Russian and North Korean IW operations are the seven defining features of “strategic” IW established by a 1996 RAND Corporation report, modified to incorporate the importance of cyberspace to cases of IW in the modern day.
Findings
Modern IW presents a new, multifaceted threat to states. Because of the value of IW as a tool by weaker states to counter stronger ones and the weakness of existing legal and normative frameworks, use of IW can be expected to be increasingly common. States can take action to promote international governance on the issue and develop policy frameworks for protecting themselves against IW.
Practical implications
IW has historically been a very tricky tactic to define and identify. By analyzing IW’s basic features, this paper provides a framework for breaking down IW into its component parts, which reveals valuable policy implications. Preventative efforts against IW can help restore trust to global information networks and lower the risk of conflict.
Originality/value
Formal scholarship on modern IW and related subjects is lacking in comparison with higher visibility threats. Increased awareness of this issue, especially amongst civilian leaders, can augment global efforts to counter IW.
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Nares Damrongchai and Evan S. Michelson
The purpose of this paper is to highlight the overall lack of focus of existing foresight analysis concerning the future of science and technology on the issue of poverty. The…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to highlight the overall lack of focus of existing foresight analysis concerning the future of science and technology on the issue of poverty. The paper looks to re‐orient the technology foresight community to adopting an explicit pro‐poor perspective when considering future developments in science and technology (S&T).
Design/methodology/approach
The paper presents a general overview of existing technology foresight studies from organizations located in North America, Europe, and Asia. By describing the key points made in a selection of foresight studies, the paper emphasizes the conceptual links between forward‐looking analysis related to S&T and poverty‐related issues.
Findings
The paper reaches two main conclusions about the role of S&T foresight and development. The first is that the foresight research community needs to interact more closely with the development community in order to enhance the value of the findings in each field to the other. Second, the pressing matter of poverty alleviation requires that the foresight community should come together and create a sense of urgency in issues that have long‐term implications but need immediate action and attention.
Research limitations/implications
This paper is limited to an approach that provides an overview of existing work in technology foresight. While no such review could be comprehensive, this paper provides examples of technology foresight analysis from a range of geographies, sectors, and perspectives to help mitigate this gap.
Practical implications
The argument suggests that technology foresight practitioners should make issues of poverty an explicit topic or category of analysis in future technology foresight activities. Including poverty issues in future scenario activities would go a long way to closing this gap.
Originality/value
This paper synthesizes ideas from a variety of forward‐looking studies addressing the future of science and technology and identifies the need to include poverty as a dimension for analysis in future studies. In addition, the paper provides an introduction to technology foresight work being conducted in Asia by the APEC Center for Technology Foresight.