Because most observers ordinarily view the future as an extrapolation of current trends, they are unprepared for discontinuities. The paper aims to urge that leaders foster a…
Abstract
Purpose
Because most observers ordinarily view the future as an extrapolation of current trends, they are unprepared for discontinuities. The paper aims to urge that leaders foster a culture of open mindedness to better imagine and prepare for discontinuity.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on best practice experimentation the authors suggest five “tools” that are useful for achieving a discontinuous mindset.
Findings
To achieve a discontinuous mindset, managers need not turn their back on current forecasting activities, but they do need to balance them, intellectually, with considerations of longer‐term uncertainties.
Practical implications
Although the authors appreciate the value of innovative planning techniques – scenario planning, diversity planning, reverse‐engineering the future, developing a 25‐year business plan and culture‐based planning – they propose that a discontinuous mindset and the five tools to develop it are the best defenses against unanticipated disruption of markets.
Originality/value
The five tools for developing a discontinuous mindset offer a fresh take on how leaders can come to grips with an uncertain future.