This paper aims to investigate the association between analyst forecast dispersion and investors’ perceived uncertainty toward earnings.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the association between analyst forecast dispersion and investors’ perceived uncertainty toward earnings.
Design/methodology/approach
A new measure for investors’ expectations of earnings announcement uncertainty is constructed, using changes in implied volatility of option contracts prior to earnings announcements. Unlike other proxies of uncertainty, this measure isolates the incremental uncertainty regarding the upcoming earnings announcement and is a forward-looking measure.
Findings
Using this new proxy, this paper finds a significant negative correlation between analyst forecast dispersion and investors’ uncertainty regarding the upcoming earnings announcements. Further tests show that this negative correlation is driven by analysts’ private information acquisition rather than analysts; uncertainty toward upcoming earnings announcements. Additional cross-sectional tests show that this negative relationship is more pronounced in the subsample with lower earnings quality.
Social implications
This paper helps to further the understanding of the information content of analyst forecast dispersion, particularly the ways in which they gather and produce private information and their incentives for so doing.
Originality/value
This paper introduces a new market-based and forward-looking proxy of earnings announcement uncertainty that should be useful in future research. This paper also provides original empirical evidence that analysts gather and produce an additional private information to the market when facing noisy signals and that their information reduces investors’ uncertainty toward upcoming earnings announcements.
Details
Keywords
Brett S. Kawada and Jeff Jundong Wang
This study aims to examine a firm’s disclosure properties subsequent to receiving a going-concern opinion.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine a firm’s disclosure properties subsequent to receiving a going-concern opinion.
Design/methodology/approach
A difference-in-difference research design was used to control for endogeneity issues. Annual report readability is used as a proxy for firm disclosure.
Findings
The results indicate a negative and significant association between issuance of a going-concern report to a firm and the firm’s readability index in the subsequent year. In other words, after receiving a going-concern opinion, a firm’s annual report exhibits increased readability. The results, when broken into subsamples of surviving and failing firms, are concentrated in the surviving firms.
Research limitations/implications
Prior research has shown that firms change their disclosure properties due to endogenous choices motivated by incentive or exogenous shocks. The results of this study, however, suggest that firms that receive going-concern opinions are incentivized to be more forthcoming in disclosing their financial information.
Originality/value
To the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to investigate how firms’ general disclosures change subsequent to receiving a going-concern opinion.