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Article
Publication date: 19 July 2011

Riel Miller

The purpose of this paper is to put the paper by Jay Ogilvy in the context of current debates around the philosophical foundations of future studies.

693

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to put the paper by Jay Ogilvy in the context of current debates around the philosophical foundations of future studies.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper takes the form of a review and analyzes the current literature on foresight and philosophy of the future.

Findings

The paper finds that the practical challenge of taking a “scenaric stance”, as articulated in “Facing the fold”, cannot be addressed without going beyond the typically epistemological solutions proposed by most futurists.

Research limitations/implications

The challenge is not finding ways to “know” the future, rather to find ways to live and act with not‐knowing the future.

Practical implications

The “scenaric stance” points to a way of embracing what Henri Bergson calls “the continuous creation of unforeseeable novelty.”

Social implications

The “scenaric stance” offers one way of addressing the difficult, often deeply painful challenge of reconciling the desire for certainty with the desire to “be free” – in the Senian sense of capacity – by providing a way to embrace ambiguity and spontaneity.

Originality/value

The emergence of new solutions to how people think about the future rather than what kind of future reflects a confluence of events in the realms of theory and practice. The reason why one needs to and can rethink how one thinks about the future is original to the present conjuncture.

Details

Foresight, vol. 13 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 19 July 2011

Jay Ogilvy

The objective of this paper is to make a case for a scenaric stance that holds high road and low road futures in mind at once. Opening with regrets about the total eclipse of

1764

Abstract

Purpose

The objective of this paper is to make a case for a scenaric stance that holds high road and low road futures in mind at once. Opening with regrets about the total eclipse of Utopian thinking, the paper aims to move on to embrace both aspirational futures and a forthright recognition of the many ways in which things could go wrong. Adopting a scenaric stance amounts to a new, fourth attitude toward historical time and the future. The ancients lived in an ahistorical, cyclical time. Second, modernity embraced a progressive and optimistic approach to the future. Third, post‐modernity turns pessimistic about the future. Fourth, a new scenaric stance vindicates Utopian optimism by pairing it with a forthright recognition of pessimistic possibilities.

Design/methodology/approach

This is a reflective, almost philosophical paper that articulates a new attitude toward the future, which demonstrates the significance of scenario planning for attitudes toward the future.

Findings

A scenaric stance can restore the liberatory potential of Utopian thinking by yoking optimistic, aspirational futures together with a clear‐eyed recognition of the several ways that plans can misfire.

Research limitations/implications

This is a philosophical, reflective piece that does not rely on any quantitative evidence or rigorous modeling.

Practical implications

The practical implications are major: to the extent that the health of the economy relies on confidence and a willingness to take risks, a lemming‐like race to the bottom will result in a Japan‐like endless recession. A vindication is needed for aspirational scenarios.

Social implications

Everyone is better off when fewer people are living in crouch.

Originality/value

After three decades of reviewing and contributing to the literature on future studies, the author has seen nothing that remotely resembles the argument of this paper. Its value consists in its potential for lifting people's sights. One stands in danger of a loss of confidence and an endless recession. One needs to restore a sense of possibility and optimism, but can do so responsibly only if one holds on to an honest sense of the real dangers one faces.

Details

Foresight, vol. 13 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 24 August 2012

Richard A. Slaughter

The purpose of this paper is to discuss and take forward several themes in two earlier papers by Ogilvy and Miller. After summarising their main points it seeks to consider

578

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to discuss and take forward several themes in two earlier papers by Ogilvy and Miller. After summarising their main points it seeks to consider different approaches to “sense making” in the work of future‐relevant theorists and practitioners; then to consider the case of sense making through integral approaches and then to explore implications through several themes. These include: a view of changes in the global system, generic responses to the global emergency, the critique of regressive modernity and how responses to “Cassandra's dilemma” (to know the future but not be believed) might stand in relation to the views of both authors. The paper aims to conclude with a view of the benefits to be obtained from the use of a four‐quadrant approach to understanding and responding to the human predicament.

Design/methodology/approach

This is a discussion paper that questions some of the views and assumptions of the earlier papers and explores some implications of an alternative view.

Findings

While supporting the drive to improve upon the theoretical foundations of futures studies and foresight, the paper questions whether such developments are as central, or will be as influential, as the authors suggest. A different view of “how to approach the future” is recommended, in part through four “domains of generic responses” to the global predicament.

Research limitations/implications

The paper presents an argument supported by evidence. Both should be reviewed by others in pursuit of extending the conversation beyond philosophical questions to implications in practice.

Practical implications

The essence of a methodology to understand, approach and even to resolve many aspects of the global emergency is outlined here. As such the paper has many practical implications for the way that futures and foresight professionals operate and towards what ends.

Social implications

The paper provides a substantive basis for qualified hope and engagement with a range of future‐shaping tasks. Specifically, these relate to the necessary shifts from “overshoot and collapse” trajectories to options for “moderated descent”.

Originality/value

Much of the work carried out on the perspective and issues discussed here has been carried out by those working outside of the futures/foresight domain. The value is both in affirming positive ways forward and extending the professional reach of futures/foresight workers to embrace new ideas and methods.

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Article
Publication date: 1 May 2000

John Ratcliffe

The scenario method has been widely used by decision makers in business, industry and government for over 30 years as an unrivalled technique to learn about the future before it…

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Abstract

The scenario method has been widely used by decision makers in business, industry and government for over 30 years as an unrivalled technique to learn about the future before it happens. This paper examines the principles, practice and pitfalls of scenario building with the prime aim of presenting the technique as one singularly relevant to the study of future property investment, development and management decisions and land use policy formulation. The origins of the approach from its military‐based beginnings, through the popularised global environmental applications to the current widescale use by industry and commerce are traced. Some definitions are advanced to demonstrate the multi‐various nature of the method, and different types of scenario identified to show their adaptability and agility. The general purpose of the technique as a learning mechanism for organizations is explored, and the step‐by‐step process of scenario building specifically analysed. Conclusions are drawn which record the success of scenario building in many fields other than property and predict the adoption of the scenario approach as the principal behavioural technique for determining corporate real estate strategy in the future.

Details

Property Management, vol. 18 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

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Article
Publication date: 18 July 2008

Richard A. Slaughter

The purpose of this paper is to consider the view that America is “the land of the future”. It argues that, owing to its sponsorship of a model of development that is exploitive

957

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to consider the view that America is “the land of the future”. It argues that, owing to its sponsorship of a model of development that is exploitive and unsustainable, this is no longer the case and that US futurists, in particular, need to consciously re‐evaluate their roles and work.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper advances a cultural critique of US hegemony. It considers background myths and their role in creating “American exceptionalism” in various fields, including futures studies. It also critiques free market ideology, the role of corporations, market failures and the economics of exploitation. This leads to issues of truth and power and the view that a continuation of an ideology of “free enterprise” leads to the collapse of the global system.

Findings

The paper suggests a number of strategies for futurists to consider as ways of opening out their vision beyond current limitations.

Practical implications

A rationale is outlined that can support shifts in more progressive directions and moves toward more fruitful work.

Originality/value

The American futures enterprise is currently at risk from its uncritical association with dysfunctions in US society, culture and economy. The paper draws attention to some of these and indicates possible ways forward.

Details

Foresight, vol. 10 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 9 August 2013

Terry Collins

There are many challenges to be addressed in today's world. Futurists have a process, methods and skills to submit to a positive advancement of these challenges, which is the

289

Abstract

Purpose

There are many challenges to be addressed in today's world. Futurists have a process, methods and skills to submit to a positive advancement of these challenges, which is the purpose of this paper.

Design/methodology/approach

The approach is the author's synthesis and reflection of the more positive aspects of addressing the problems facing contemporary society.

Findings

The author concludes the visioning operation needs to be near the beginning of the future's practice with the focus on presencing “what does the future want from us in this matter?” How can people serve “it” instead of their ego? This will take maturity, being conscious, and having an attitude of gratitude and service to something bigger than ourselves.

Originality/value

When futurist practitioners practice the approach of foresight planning, the viewpoint examined here is that the vision exercise should be placed at the beginning of the process. The priority of the visioning activity should include an inquiry of what wants to emerge from the “evolutionary integral future.” This consideration widens the perspective to include the well‐being of the whole ecosystem, with the possible benefits of resilience, waking up, growing up, and showing up.

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Book part
Publication date: 29 April 2020

Andreas Schühly, Frank Becker and Florian Klein

Abstract

Details

Real Time Strategy: When Strategic Foresight Meets Artificial Intelligence
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78756-812-9

Available. Content available
Article
Publication date: 1 June 2010

Riel Miller and Roberto Poli

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Abstract

Details

Foresight, vol. 12 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 25 January 2013

Anthony Hodgson

The purpose of this paper is to propose that conceptions of time and future that are currently in use restrict the possibilities for framing decision making. By privileging the

735

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose that conceptions of time and future that are currently in use restrict the possibilities for framing decision making. By privileging the notion of present moment over that of linear time, a more comprehensive framing of what it means to consider what influences our judgements. The ontology of the present moment provides a theoretical context for knowing what we can of the future in a more comprehensive way.

Design/methodology/approach

A review of ways of knowing the future that extends beyond linear assumptions of time leads to consideration of anticipatory systems and of the relationship between purpose and causality. It leads further into conjecture that the present moment is more ontologically fundamental than what we customarily refer to as past, present and future.

Findings

On this foundation, examination of experience of now reveals a multidimensionality which can include retrocausality, the possibility of the future influencing the present and the importance of latent patterning in determining events.

Research limitations/implications

The notion of the present moment has much in common with second order cybernetics and indicates a possible way of bringing systems thinking, especially boundary critique, to futures thinking and strategic decision making.

Practical implications

Although basically a theoretical paper, the framework does suggest possibilities for redesigning futures practice through using the present moment as a meta‐framing critique technique to reveal more clearly underlying assumptions in both futures studies and systems thinking.

Originality/value

In the context of a world where serious inability to see what is coming is pervasive in management and governance, a fresh look at fundamental assumptions may reveal flawed decision thinking and indicate ways of improvement.

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Article
Publication date: 14 September 2015

Rebecca Wayland

– The purpose of this research is to explore the nature of change and the practices of foresight required to anticipate and to plan for change.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to explore the nature of change and the practices of foresight required to anticipate and to plan for change.

Design/methodology/approach

Part I provides a sketch of investigations of change and related areas of uncertainty and discontinuity. Part II provides a conceptual framework outlining four types of change: incremental, contextual, structural and foundational. Part III outlines the methodological distinctions required to explore the four types of change characterized here as normal and extraordinary foresight. Part IV combines these examinations to develop a structured approach to scenario analysis. Finally, Part V examines the implications of this work.

Findings

A structured approach to scenario planning explores four variations of evolutionary and revolutionary changes. It applies both normal and extraordinary foresight to explore the epistemological and ontological boundaries of change and to analyze the impact of shifts in ontological boundaries. While a structured approach applies established tools and techniques, it also directs our attention to areas where we can do more. It is an integral part of strategic foresight in a changing world.

Research limitations/implications

This is a conceptual article based on over 25 years of practice in corporate strategy, including 10 years of work in scenario planning. It is also drawn from doctoral research on the epistemological and ontological boundaries of paradigms (Wayland, 2003), as outlined in Thomas S. Kuhn’s The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Kuhn and Hacking, 2012).

Originality/value

Recent work examining the epistemological and ontological boundaries of change are linked with a practical framework and methodological distinction. These contributions are combined with a structured approach to scenario planning to improve the ability to anticipate and to plan for change.

Details

Foresight, vol. 17 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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