Jamshed Y. Uppal and Syeda Rabab Mudakkar
Application of financial risk models in the emerging markets poses special challenges. A fundamental challenge is to accurately model the return distributions which are…
Abstract
Application of financial risk models in the emerging markets poses special challenges. A fundamental challenge is to accurately model the return distributions which are particularly fat tailed and skewed. Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures based on the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have been suggested, but typically data histories are limited, making it hard to test and apply EVT. The chapter addresses issues in (i) modeling the VaR measure in the presence of structural breaks in an economy, (ii) the choice of stable innovation distribution with volatility clustering effects, (iii) modeling the tails of the empirical distribution, and (iv) fixing the cut-off point for isolating extreme observations. Pakistan offers an instructive case since its equity market exhibits high volatility and incidence of extreme returns. The recent Global Financial Crisis has been another source of extreme returns. The confluence of the two sources of volatility provides us with a rich data set to test the VaR/EVT model rigorously and examine practical challenges in its application in an emerging market.
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Reports concerns that the lifting of restrictions on portfolio investment by foreigners would lead to overheating or excessive volatility in the capital markets of developing…
Abstract
Reports concerns that the lifting of restrictions on portfolio investment by foreigners would lead to overheating or excessive volatility in the capital markets of developing countries. Describes the abrupt lifting of restrictions on the Karachi Stock Exchange in Pakistan, given six notable developments in 1991. Examines the homogeneity of variance on weekly returns on the market index from 1988 to 1993 (over the period of liberalization). Finds that stock market volatility will reflect economic variables in the long run, while the market is shown to be information‐efficient.
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Jamshed Y. Uppal and Inayat Ullah Mangla
This study aims to examine the stock returns distributions in ten countries in the periods before and after the global financial crisis (GFC) to evaluate how well the empirical…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the stock returns distributions in ten countries in the periods before and after the global financial crisis (GFC) to evaluate how well the empirical distributions conformed to the extreme value theory (EVT) which underlies a family of risk management models.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors’ sample consists of the G5 countries and the five leading emerging economies. Parameters of the General Pareto Distribution (GPD) for each country are estimated for the pre‐ and the crisis period. The authors follow a two‐step procedure: a GARCH(1,1) model is fitted to the historical return data by pseudo maximum likelihood method; Hill's GPD tail estimation procedure is employed on the residuals from the first step. Goodness‐of‐fit is evaluated for the empirical distributions.
Findings
The authors find that the EVT explains the observed distributions well in both the pre‐GFC and the GFC periods, with the important exceptions of the US and the UK markets in the crisis period. Moreover, the estimated distribution parameters are quite different for the two periods. The results underscore the inadequacy of the quantitative risk models in times of financial turbulence, and the need for prudential exercise of judgment in risk management.
Originality/value
The global financial crisis (GFC) provides a unique and historical experiment to evaluate the models of tail distributions. Although the EVT provides a sound basis for modeling extreme risks, the study highlights the fundamental problem of dealing with uncertainty.
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Tuan Anh Nguyen and Jamshed Iqbal
Design a novel optimal integrated control algorithm for the automotive electric steering system to improve the stability and adaptation of the system.
Abstract
Purpose
Design a novel optimal integrated control algorithm for the automotive electric steering system to improve the stability and adaptation of the system.
Design/methodology/approach
Simulation and calculation.
Findings
The output signals follow the reference signal with high accuracy.
Originality/value
The optimal integrated algorithm is established based on the combination of PID and SMC. The parameters of the PID controller are adjusted using a fuzzy algorithm. The optimal range of adjustment values is determined using a genetic algorithm.
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M. Kabir Hassan and Adnan Q. Aldayel
This study examines empirically the stability of the demand for money under two different financial systems. One system pays interest on money deposited at the bank and charges…
Abstract
This study examines empirically the stability of the demand for money under two different financial systems. One system pays interest on money deposited at the bank and charges interest on bank loans; the other does not pay interest on money deposited in the bank, and enters into a profit‐sharing contract with the bank borrower instead of charging interest on bank loans. The first system resembles the western financial system and the second resembles the Islamic financial system. A study by Darrat (1988) studies the behavior of demand for money in Tunisia, and concluded that interest‐free money is more stable than the interest‐bearing money. The behavior of demand for money in fifteen countries has been analyzed in this research in order to find out if the findings by Darrat (1988) are applicable to other countries that practice Islamic banking. This study finds that the velocity of money and its variance are lower for interest‐ free banking system than for interest‐bearing banking system. This result may support the hypothesis that interest‐free money is more stable than interest‐bearing money. The monetary policy implications of interest‐free banking are also analyzed.
Rahman Ullah, Yasir Mansoor Kundi and Subhan Shahid
Based on affective event theory (AET), this study aims to unpack the association between team relationship conflict and employees’ subjective career success by examining the…
Abstract
Purpose
Based on affective event theory (AET), this study aims to unpack the association between team relationship conflict and employees’ subjective career success by examining the mediating role of negative emotions and the moderating role of emotional intelligence.
Design/methodology/approach
Using Mplus 8.1, the study analyzes multi-level, multi-wave data collected from 288 employees in 51 teams across Pakistan.
Findings
The results indicate that team relationship conflict is negatively associated with employees’ subjective career success, both in terms of career satisfaction and job satisfaction. While employees’ negative emotions partially mediate this negative relationship, emotional intelligence moderates the association between team relationship conflict and negative emotions, such that individuals with higher emotional intelligence experience less negative emotions.
Originality/value
This study advances career research by demonstrating how and when team relationship conflict is related to employees’ subjective career success. It also extends current understanding of the mediating and moderating mechanisms behind the association between team relationship conflict and employees’ subjective career success.
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Sabeen Hussain Bhatti, Farida Saleem, Ghulam Murtaza and Tazeem Ul Haq
This paper aims to explore the relationship between green human resource management (GHRM) practices and the environmental performance (EP) of firms belonging to industries that…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to explore the relationship between green human resource management (GHRM) practices and the environmental performance (EP) of firms belonging to industries that may lean toward environmental pollution (e.g. oil and gas). The authors propose a holistic (serial mediation) model based on the ability-motivation-opportunity (AMO) theory and the social exchange theory (SET) and integrate organizational, i.e. perceived organizational support (POS), and individual, i.e. innovative environmental behavior (IEB), factors as explanatory mechanisms. The authors then test the model in a developing country context.
Design/methodology/approach
Data were collected from white collar workers in the oil and gas industry in Pakistan. A structural equation modeling (SEM) technique and the PROCESS model 6 were used to analyze the hypothesized serial mediation model.
Findings
The authors found support for the fully meditating serial mediation model. Although the direct effects of GHRM and EP were insignificant, the total effects and indirect effects through POS and IEB were significant. Similarly, the research also found support for organizational and individual factors as explanatory mechanisms in the relationship between GHRM and EP.
Originality/value
This research adds to the existing literature on GHRM and the corporate EP link through proposing and testing a model of the mediating effects of POS and IEB. Furthermore, it provides empirical evidence of this model in the oil and gas sector using an Asian developing country as the context of study.
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Dini Rosdini, Nunuy Nur Afiah, Prima Yusi Sari, Tettet Fitrijanti, Hamzah Ritchi and Adhi Alfian
This study aims to explore how risk culture – tone at the top (TATT) and informed risk decision (IRD) – can affect the effectiveness of risk management (EORM) in the government.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to explore how risk culture – tone at the top (TATT) and informed risk decision (IRD) – can affect the effectiveness of risk management (EORM) in the government.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors experimented on 84 civil servants working in central and local governments in Indonesia, focusing on vital local governments and critical ministries/institutions in central governments.
Findings
TATT and its interaction with IRD do not affect the EORM, while IRD and socialization of risk affect and improve it. A weak TATT, low commitment and ineffective implementation of risk culture to the lower-middle echelon may impair a country’s risk management (RM) practice. IRD with socialization is also the key to improving decision-making and RM.
Originality/value
This paper illuminates the possibility of risk culture in regulating the EORM in the governmental general planning process using the experiment as the research method and provides different facets in the application of risk culture in the government, where the focus is on policy-making, budgeting and planning aspects by involving several important ministries, institutions and strategic local government’s civil servants.