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1 – 10 of 77Augustine Chuck Arize, Ebere Ume Kalu, Chinwe Okoyeuzu and John Malindretos
This study aims to make a comparative study of the applicability of the purchasing power parity (PPP) in selected less developing countries (LDCs) on one hand and European…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to make a comparative study of the applicability of the purchasing power parity (PPP) in selected less developing countries (LDCs) on one hand and European countries on the other hand.
Design/methodology/approach
The research design is empirical and ex post facto. This study uses an assortment of co-integration tests and error correction representation. The chosen approach allows for the consideration of long-run elasticities and the dynamics of the short-run adjustment of exchange rates to changes in domestic and foreign prices. Monthly data are used for the period 1980:1 through 2015:12 (i.e. 432 observations).
Findings
Results from long-run co-integration analysis, short-run error correction models and persistence profile analysis overwhelmingly confirm the validity of PPP in these two sets of countries regardless the disparity in their relative exchange rate and price characteristics.
Research limitations/implications
Curiously, several of these empirical studies and still many more, have focused their attention on the experiences of industrialized countries, with a few investigations devoted to LDCs. The evidence is even scarcer in Africa. Clearly, the acceptance of any hypothesis as a credible explanation of economic reality hinges on the robustness of the hypothesis across countries with different economic and institutional frameworks.
Practical implications
Knowledge of the extent to which exchange rate and relative prices can be linked in the long run is important for the design and management of inflation and the implementation of monetary policy. For instance, policy actions aimed at stabilizing the domestic economy can obtain results that are, at best, uncertain in the absence of correct characterization of the PPP dynamics. Moreover, structural and macroeconomic adjustment programs implemented in these countries to achieve economic growth and external competitiveness could be unsuccessful if flawed estimates of PPP exchange rates are retained.
Originality/value
Several empirical studies have been done to prove the validity or otherwise of the PPP. Unlike prior authors, this study makes a comparative study of the applicability of the PPP in selected LDC on one hand and European countries.
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A.C. Arize, J. Malindretos and S. Christoffersen
This paper examines the existence and stability of both the long‐ and short‐run demand for narrow and broad money balances. The data for Singapore are used as a case study. The…
Abstract
This paper examines the existence and stability of both the long‐ and short‐run demand for narrow and broad money balances. The data for Singapore are used as a case study. The quarterly period examined is 1973:2‐1999:3 (105 observations). The study reveals the existence of a systematic long‐run relationship among real money balances, real income, interest rate and exchange rate. Results from testing the hypothesis of a unitary price elasticity confirm that only the broad money aggregate could be used as intermediate target of monetary policy. Using a formal test of parameter constancy designed specifically for cointegrating vectors, it is shown that nonstationarity and time invariance in the demand for money can be resolved by the inclusion of the exchange rate.
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Lee Sarver and George C. Philippatos
This study explores the nature of the spot foreign exchange risk premium. Employing Ross's Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) as a vehicle, it tests the hypothesis that…
Abstract
This study explores the nature of the spot foreign exchange risk premium. Employing Ross's Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) as a vehicle, it tests the hypothesis that cross‐sectional differences in pure currency returns depend on measures of systematic (covariance) risk. These tests have greater power, in the sense of an enhanced ability to reject the hypothesis, since they explicitly allow for the possibility that idiosyncratic risk is priced. A battery of tests is unable to reject the hypothesis that expected exchange returns can be explained by a single‐factor APT. One implication of these results is that official intervention in exchange markets is unnecessary and undesirable.
Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee and Scott W. Hegerty
Since the last review article by McKenzie, the literature has experienced a surge in the number of empirical articles. These new contributions, coupled with those that were…
Abstract
Purpose
Since the last review article by McKenzie, the literature has experienced a surge in the number of empirical articles. These new contributions, coupled with those that were overlooked by McKenzie, set the stage for this review. Many of the recent studies have been empirical in nature and these deserve specific attention. Thus, this paper aims to survey and review all of the studies by paying attention to the attributes outlined in the text.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper examines the vast empirical literature, up to 2005, to assess the main trends in modeling and estimating these trade flows at the aggregate, bilateral, and sectoral levels.
Findings
The increase in exchange‐rate volatility since 1973 has had indeterminate effects on international export and import flows. Although it can be assumed that an increase in risk may lead to a reduction in economic activity, the theoretical literature provides justifications for positive or insignificant effects as well. Similar results have been found in empirical tests. While modeling techniques have evolved over time to incorporate new developments in econometric analysis, no single measure of exchange‐rate volatility has dominated the literature.
Originality/value
An argument put forward by the opponents of the floating exchange rates is that such rates introduce uncertainty into the foreign exchange market, which could deter trade flows. However, a theoretical argument is put forward by some to show that uncertainty could also boost trade flows if traders increase their trade volume to offset any decrease in future revenue due to exchange rate volatility. The empirical literature reviewed in this paper supports both views.
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Gastón Fornés and Guillermo Cardoza
The purpose of this paper is to look at the impact that unanticipated changes in the exchange rate, specifically the currency crises that took place in Latin America between 1998…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to look at the impact that unanticipated changes in the exchange rate, specifically the currency crises that took place in Latin America between 1998 and 2004, had on the value of Spanish companies operating in this region. It also studies the strategies, decisions, measures and initiatives that these firms made to improve the effectiveness of their hedging activities. Building upon previous studies in industrialised countries, the study applies a broader perspective as it takes a cross‐functional approach by including finance, strategic planning, marketing and operations management in the analysis.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses qualitative and quantitative analyses to reach its conclusions. The quantitative study involves a time series regression to calculate a foreign exchange exposure (FOREX) coefficient. The qualitative analysis uses a systematic approach to develop categories from the data gathered in the interviews. Finally, the conclusions from both analyses were summarised and combined. The data was collected from interviews containing structured and open‐ended questions with senior managers and directors of the largest Spanish investors in Latin America.
Findings
The research results suggest that foreign companies exposed to exchange risks in emerging markets gain resilience when they take a cross‐functional approach for the assessment and implementation of hedging strategies along with the decentralisation to subsidiaries of the decisions and implementation of hedging initiatives. This helps companies in: elaborating scenarios, assessing the possible impact of exchange rate variations, designing pre‐emptive measures and setting alternative strategies to mitigate potential impacts. This cross‐functional approach to managing risks in emerging markets seems to offer companies higher flexibility and new knowledge that can be shared among subsidiaries working in similar economic and political environments.
Originality/value
The results from this empirical study build upon previous works on FOREX and offer companies an alternative approach to minimise its impacts when operating in emerging markets.
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Unggul Heriqbaldi, Miguel Angel Esquivias, Rossanto Dwi Handoyo, Alfira Cahyaning Rifami and Hilda Rohmawati
This paper aims to examine whether Indonesian cross-border trade responds asymmetrically to exchange rate volatility (ERV).
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine whether Indonesian cross-border trade responds asymmetrically to exchange rate volatility (ERV).
Design/methodology/approach
An exponential generalized autorgressive conditional heteroscedasticity model is applied to estimate the ERV of Indonesia and ten main trade partners using quarterly data from 2006 to 2020. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag estimation is applied to estimate the impact of ERV on cross-border trade. Impacts from the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic are covered. Dynamic panel data is used for the robustness test.
Findings
In the short-run, ERV significantly affects exports to most of the top partners (positively, negatively or both). In the long run, asymmetric effects occur in Indonesia’s exports to five top destinations. The weakening of the Indonesian Rupiah mainly supports exports in the short term. Imports from top partners are also affected by ERV in both the short run and, to a lesser extent, in the long run. Both the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic reduced trade: for most cases, in the short run. The dynamic panel model suggests that ERV has asymmetric impact on cross-border trade in the long run.
Practical implications
Exchange rate strategies need to avoid a single-side policy approach and, instead, account for exporter and importer differences in risk behaviour and an asymmetric response to ERV in trade. Policymakers need to consider policies that stabilise the currency.
Originality/value
This study provides evidence that cross-border trade can react asymmetrically to the exchange rate uncertainty and that the impacts of real ERV are asymmetric as well. The authors also apply a dynamic panel that signals that ERV matters in the long run for Indonesian trade with top partners.
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Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and Augustine Chuck Arize
The purpose is to assess the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance using data from African nations.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose is to assess the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance using data from African nations.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology is based on the most recent development in asymmetry cointegration and error-correction modeling.
Findings
While the authors find short-run asymmetric effects in many of the countries in their sample, asymmetry cointegration yields support for the new definition of the J-curve in Algeria, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Morocco, Tanzania and Zambia.
Originality/value
This is the first study that applies nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2014) using data from each of the 13 countries in Africa.
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Mohini Gupta and Sakshi Varshney
The aim the study is to explore the impact of real exchange rate volatility and other macroeconomic variable such as price of import, industrial production and real exchange rate…
Abstract
Purpose
The aim the study is to explore the impact of real exchange rate volatility and other macroeconomic variable such as price of import, industrial production and real exchange rate on 45 import commodities, considering global financial crisis period on India's import from the US. The empirical analysis at disaggregate level of import indicates the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in one-third importing commodities. The results show both positive and negative effect and causality among variables.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses E-GARCH model to gage the real exchange rate volatility, an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound test technique to discover the adequate short- and long-run relationships and Toda-Yamamoto causality method to analyze the causality among variables. The study uses the time period from 2002:M09 to 2019:M06.
Findings
The empirical analysis at disaggregate level of import indicates the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in one-third importing commodities. The results show both positive and negative effects and causality among variables.
Practical implications
The finding of the study suggests that macroeconomic variables have significant role and could be important to undertake the small and medium scale industries in policymaking. Government may need to make decision for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) as their performance can bring change in the trade to compete globally by increasing and controlling the price of the import and defending the domestic competitiveness.
Originality/value
The study uses additional variable namely price of import and includes the global financial crisis period to measure dampening effect on each commodity by using robust econometric technique in context of emerging nation like India.
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and Huseyin Karamelikli
The purpose of this paper is to show that in some industries the linear model may not reveal any significance link between exchange rate volatility and trade flows but once…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to show that in some industries the linear model may not reveal any significance link between exchange rate volatility and trade flows but once nonlinear adjustment of exchange rate volatility is introduced, the nonlinear model reveals significant link.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses the linear ARDL approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) and the nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2014) to assess asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows between Germany and Turkey.
Findings
This paper consider the experiences of 75 2-digit industries that trade between Turkey and Germany. When the study assumed the effects of volatility to be symmetric, the study found short-run effects in 31 (30) Turkish (German) exporting industries that lasted into the long run in only 10 (13) Turkish (German) exporting industries. However, when the study assumed asymmetric effects and relied upon a nonlinear model, the study found short-run asymmetric effects of volatility on exports of 55 (56) Turkish (German) industries. Short-run asymmetric effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 10 (25) Turkish (German) exporting industries. All in all, we found that almost 25% of trade is hurt by exchange rate volatility.
Originality/value
This is the first paper that assesses the possibility of asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on German–Turkish commodity trade.
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