K.C. CHEN, CHARLES M. LINKE and J. KENTON ZUMWALT
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the March 28, 1979 accident at the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power facility on the risk and return of General Public…
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the March 28, 1979 accident at the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power facility on the risk and return of General Public Utilities (TMI's owner) and other electric utilities heavily invested in nuclear power facilities. The results have implications for the returns required by investors and, therefore, on the economic viability of nuclear power for electricity generation. A recent article by Bowen, Castanias, and Daley used cumulative abnormal residual (CAR) analysis to examine the impact of the TMI accident on the electric utility industry. However, as has been shown by Larcker, Gordon, and Pinches, CAR results may be misleading due to systematic risk changes and autocorrelation in the data. Intervention analysis is proposed as an alternative to CAR analysis. This paper compares the results of a traditional cumulative abnormal residual analysis with the results of intervention analysts. It is found that the CAR analysis indicates abnormal negative returns occurred immediately after the TMI accident. However, intervention analysis shows the assumptions necessary for the CAR method to be appropriate are violated. When adjustments are made for a shift in systematic risk and autocorrelation, no abnormal returns are observed for GPU, for other utilities with nuclear facilities or for non‐nuclear utilities. These results are in conflict with those reported by BCD.
Kaylene Zaretzky and J. Kenton Zumwalt
Earlier research found that firms with the highest distress risk have low book‐to‐market (B/M) ratios and low returns. This paper aims to examine the robustness of those's results…
Abstract
Purpose
Earlier research found that firms with the highest distress risk have low book‐to‐market (B/M) ratios and low returns. This paper aims to examine the robustness of those's results and provide further evidence that high distress‐risk firms do not enjoy the same high returns earned by high B/M firms and that distress risk is unlikely to explain the Fama and French high‐minus‐low (HML) B/M factor.
Design/methodology/approach
A distress‐risk measure, distressed‐minus‐solvent (DMS), is calculated and a range of zero investment distress‐risk trading strategies is investigated. Value‐ and equal‐weighted portfolios are examined both with negative book‐equity firms and without. These most distressed firms have low or negative B/M values and would either not be included in the Fama and French sample or included in the low B/M portfolio.
Findings
The paper finds that the DMS factor is negative and significant, and none of the zero investment strategies earns significantly positive returns.
Research limitations/implications
The findings suggest that exposure to distress risk does not earns investors a positive risk premium. It appears that over the period examined, market inefficiencies drive the market value and returns of high distress‐risk firms.
Originality/value
The distress‐risk premium is shown to be negative and, therefore, cannot be driven by bankruptcy risk alone. The negative premium is not consistent with a financial distress explanation for the Fama and French HML factor.
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Elyas Elyasiani and Iqbal Mansur
This study employs a multivariate GARCH model to investigate the relative sensitivities of the first and the second moment of bank stock return distribution to the short‐term and…
Abstract
This study employs a multivariate GARCH model to investigate the relative sensitivities of the first and the second moment of bank stock return distribution to the short‐term and long‐term interest rates and their respective volatilities. Three portfolios are formed representing the money center banks, large banks, and small banks, respectively. Estimation and testing of hypotheses are carried out for each of the three portfolios separately. The sample includes daily data over the 1988‐2000 period. Several hypotheses are tested within the multivariate GARCH specification. These include the hypotheses of: (i) insensitivity of bank stock return to the changes in the short‐term and long‐term interest rates, (ii) insensitivity of bank stock returns to the changes in the volatilities of short‐term and long‐term interest rates, and (iii) insensitivity of bank stock return volatility to the changes in the short‐term and long‐term interest rate volatilities. The findings indicate that short‐term and long‐term interest rates and their volatilities do exert significant and differential impacts on the return generation process of the three bank portfolios. The magnitudes and the direction of the effect are model‐specific namely that they depend on whether the short‐term or the long‐term interest rate level is included in the mean return equation. These findings have implications on bank hedging strategies against the interest rate risk, regulatory decisions concerning risk‐based capital requirement, and investor’s choice of a portfolio mix.
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Gary Moore and Marc William Simpson
Using various proxies for the firms' return on equity (ROE) and retention ratios (b) the authors calculate 36 sustainable growth rates, on a rolling basis, for a comprehensive set…
Abstract
Purpose
Using various proxies for the firms' return on equity (ROE) and retention ratios (b) the authors calculate 36 sustainable growth rates, on a rolling basis, for a comprehensive set of firms over a 52-year period. The authors then assess the ability of these different sustainable growth rates to predict the actual, out-of-sample, five-year growth rates of the firms' earnings.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors compare the forecast to determine which method of estimating ROE and b produce the lowest mean-squared-errors and then determine the estimation method that works best for firms with different characteristics and for firms in different industries.
Findings
Overall, using the median ROE of all firms in the market and the 5-year average of the specific firm's retention ratio produces the lowest, statistically significant, forecast errors. Variations are documented based on firm characteristics, including dividend payout, level of ROE and industry.
Practical implications
The findings can guide practitioners in using the best earnings forecasting method.
Originality/value
Financial textbooks seem universally to suggest that one method of estimating the growth rate of a firm's earnings is to calculate the “sustainable growth rate” by multiplying the firm's ROE by the firm's b. At the same time, multiple methods of proxying for both ROE and b have been suggested; therefore, it is an interesting and useful empirical question, which, heretofore, has not been addressed in the literature, as to which estimation of the sustainable growth rate best approximates the actual future growth of the firm's earnings. The findings can guide practitioners in using the best earnings forecasting method.
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Iqbal Mansur and Elyas Elyasiani
This study attempts to determine whether the level and volatility of interest rates affect the equity returns of commercial banks. Short‐term, intermediate‐term, and long‐term…
Abstract
This study attempts to determine whether the level and volatility of interest rates affect the equity returns of commercial banks. Short‐term, intermediate‐term, and long‐term interest rates are used. Volatility is defined as the conditional variance of respective interest rates and is generated by using the ARCH estimation procedure. Two sets of models are estimated. The basic models attempt to determine the effect of contemporaneous and lagged interest rate volatility on bank equity returns, while the extended models incorporate additional contemporaneous macroeconomic variables. Contemporaneous interest rate volatility has little explanatory power, while lagged volatilities do possess some explanatory power, with the lag length varying depending on the interest rate series used and the time period examined. The results from the extended model suggest that the long‐term interest rate affects bank equity returns more adversely than the short‐term or the intermediate‐term interest rates. The findings establish the relevance of incorporating macroeconomic variables and their volatilities in models determining bank equity returns.
Pooja Singh and Anindita Chakraborty
This paper aims to examine the relationship between financial distress risk and stock returns in the Indian context.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the relationship between financial distress risk and stock returns in the Indian context.
Design/methodology/approach
This is an empirical study wherein the Altman-Z score is used to identify the distressed and the non-distressed firms listed on Nifty 500. The author uses the Fama–French five-factor model to study the relationship between stock returns and distress risk. The study analyses the differences in the factor loadings among the portfolios sorted by distress. It evaluates if incorporating distress risk factors in conventional pricing models enhances the goodness of fit.
Findings
The study reported a positive relationship between the distress risk factor and stock returns in the distressed portfolios, signifying that distress risk is a systematic risk only for distressed portfolios. Furthermore, after including the financial distress risk premium, the observed fluctuations in the small-minus-big (SMB), high-minus-low (HML), RMW and CMA coefficients indicate a common association with distress risk-related information.
Originality/value
This study tests the Fama–French five factors for distress risk and examines its nature in asset pricing for emerging markets like India. The study examined the performance of the augmented Fama–French five-factor model across different sets of portfolios sorted based on distress.
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Sheung Chi Chow, Yongchang Hui, João Paulo Vieito and ZhenZhen Zhu
This paper aims to examine the impact of stock market liberalization on efficiency of the stock markets in Latin America.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the impact of stock market liberalization on efficiency of the stock markets in Latin America.
Design/methodology/approach
Daily stock indices from Latin American countries, including Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, are used in the analysis. To examine the impact of stock market liberalization on efficiency, the authors use several approaches, including the runs test, Chow–Denning multiple variation ratio test, Wright variance ratio test, the martingale hypothesis test and the stochastic dominance (SD) test, on the above Latin American stock market indices.
Findings
The authors find that stock market liberalization does not improve stock market efficiency in Latin America.
Originality/value
This investigation is among the first to examine the impact of stock market liberalization on the efficiency of the stock markets. It is among the first to examine the impact of stock market liberalization on the efficiency of the Latin American stock markets. It is also among the first to apply the martingale hypothesis test and a SD approach on issue about efficient market.
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Passive investing has established itself as the dominant force in the world of professionally managed assets, surpassing the concept of index funds. Its meteoric rise is fueled…
Abstract
Purpose
Passive investing has established itself as the dominant force in the world of professionally managed assets, surpassing the concept of index funds. Its meteoric rise is fueled by investors’ preference for its dual benefits of strong diversification and low cost. A comprehensive study of the economic model, addressed areas and market structure has not yet been conducted, despite the existence of numerous studies on more specific topics. To address this gap, this paper examines 943 articles on passive investing published between 1998 and 2022 in SCOPUS and Web of Science.
Design/methodology/approach
The study utilizes the most pertinent tools for conducting a systematic review by the PRISMA framework. This article is the result of SLR and extensive bibliometric analysis. Contextualized systematic literature review is used to screen and select bibliographic data, which is then subjected to a variety of bibliometric analyses. The study provides a bibliometric overview of works on passive investment research that are indexed in Scopus and Web of Science. Bibliometrix, VoS Viewer and Cite Space are the tools used to conduct content and network analysis, to ascertain the present state of research, as well as its focus and direction.
Findings
Our exhaustive analysis yields important findings. One, the previous decade has witnessed a substantial increase in the number of publications and citations; in particular, the inter-disciplinary and international scope of related research has expanded; Second, the top three clusters on “active versus passive funds,” “price discovery and market structures” and “exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as an alternative” account for more than fifty percent of the domain’s knowledge; Third, “Leveraged ETFs (LETFs)” and “environmental, social and governance (ESG)” are the two emerging themes in the passive investing research. Fourth, despite its many benefits, passive investing is not suitable for everyone. To get the most out of what passive investing has to offer, investors, intermediaries and regulators must all exercise sufficient caution. Our study makes a substantial contribution to the field by conducting a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of the existing literature, highlighting key findings and implications, as well as future research directions.
Research limitations/implications
While the study contributes significantly to the field of knowledge, it has several limitations that must be considered when interpreting its findings and implications. With our emphasis on academic journals, the study analyzed only peer-reviewed journal articles, excluding conference papers, reports and technical articles. While we are confident that our approach resulted in a comprehensive and representative database, our reliance on Elsevier Scopus and Web of Science may have resulted in us overlooking relevant work accessible only through other databases. Additionally, specific bibliometric properties may not be time-stable, and certain common distribution patterns of the passive investing literature may still be developing.
Practical implications
With this study, it has been possible to observe and chart the high growth trajectory of passive investing research globally, especially post-US subprime crisis. Despite the widespread adoption of passive investing as an investment strategy, it is not a one-size-fits-all proposition. Market conditions change constantly, and it frequently requires an informed eye to determine when and how much to shift away from active investments and toward passive ones. Currency ETFs enable investors to implement a carry trade strategy in their portfolios; however, as a word of caution, currency stability and liquidity can play a significant role in international ETFs. Similarly, LETFs may be better suited for dynamic strategies and offer less value to a long-term investor. Lastly, the importance of investor education cannot be underestimated in the name of the highly diversified portfolio when using passive alternatives, for which necessary efforts are required by regulators and investors alike.
Social implications
The inexorable trend to passive investing creates numerous issues for fund management, including fee and revenue pressure, which forces traditional managers to seek new revenue streams, such as illiquid and private assets, which also implies increased portfolio risk. Additionally, the increased transparency and efficiency associated with the ETF market indicates that managers must rethink the entire value chain, beginning with technology and the way investments interact. Passive investments have triggered changes in market structure that are still not fully understood or factored in. Active management and a range of valuation opinions on whether a price is “too low” or “too high” provide much-needed depth to a market as it attempts to strike a delicate balance between demand and supply forces, ensuring liquidity at all price points.
Originality/value
I hereby certify that I am the sole author of this paper and that no part of this manuscript has been published or submitted for publication.