Garland Durham and John Geweke
Massively parallel desktop computing capabilities now well within the reach of individual academics modify the environment for posterior simulation in fundamental and potentially…
Abstract
Massively parallel desktop computing capabilities now well within the reach of individual academics modify the environment for posterior simulation in fundamental and potentially quite advantageous ways. But to fully exploit these benefits algorithms that conform to parallel computing environments are needed. This paper presents a sequential posterior simulator designed to operate efficiently in this context. The simulator makes fewer analytical and programming demands on investigators, and is faster, more reliable, and more complete than conventional posterior simulators. The paper extends existing sequential Monte Carlo methods and theory to provide a thorough and practical foundation for sequential posterior simulation that is well suited to massively parallel computing environments. It provides detailed recommendations on implementation, yielding an algorithm that requires only code for simulation from the prior and evaluation of prior and data densities and works well in a variety of applications representative of serious empirical work in economics and finance. The algorithm facilitates Bayesian model comparison by producing marginal likelihood approximations of unprecedented accuracy as an incidental by-product, is robust to pathological posterior distributions, and provides estimates of numerical standard error and relative numerical efficiency intrinsically. The paper concludes with an application that illustrates the potential of these simulators for applied Bayesian inference.
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M.J. LE BAS and J. DURHAM
Scientific research is producing ever‐increasing amounts of quantitative data worthy of communication to scholars, but more than can be accommodated in refereed publications even…
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Scientific research is producing ever‐increasing amounts of quantitative data worthy of communication to scholars, but more than can be accommodated in refereed publications even though the number of journals is itself increasing. In the last twenty years, the quantity of geochemical analytical data produced world‐wide has increased a hundredfold or more. Geochemical and petrological journals nowadays rarely publish the complete sets of data; instead, only selected representative data are published and the remainder may or may not be put into supplementary publications. In the last five years, a scheme has been set up in the UK which co‐ordinates geochemical publications with a growing computerised geochemical data bank. The data bank comprises not only the geochemical analytical data actually printed on the journal pages but also the remainder of the data set pertaining to the published paper which could not be printed for lack of space. In collaboration with the journal editor, the data are collected into the data bank at the same time as the author is submitting his or her paper for publication. The author enters the data in a standard format and sends them as hard copy or in machine‐readable form to the data bank editor. The editor verifies the data and passes them for archiving to the National Geochemical Data Bank manager of the British Geological Survey whence they can be retrieved. The data are also relayed to the World Data Center for storage and further distribution.
Globalisation, which is founded on an axis of dissemination and change, has economic, social, cultural and political dimensions. Since the rise of capitalism in the 1800s, the…
Abstract
Globalisation, which is founded on an axis of dissemination and change, has economic, social, cultural and political dimensions. Since the rise of capitalism in the 1800s, the concept of childhood has evolved along with the shifting conception of man in globalisation. This shift can be investigated by looking at three pillars: (1) shifting play patterns, (2) child Labour and (3) violence towards children are all issues that need to be addressed. Play has been one of the most important phenomena that people have created for themselves throughout history. Toys that have grown more common and standardised as a result of globalisation are now available to children from various cultures all over the world and are designed to meet specific criteria. It is common knowledge that children have worked to aid their families' economies since they were young, and that child Labour is crucial for the family, village and clan. However, as a result of the commodification of Labour during the industrialisation process and major monopolies' quest for cheap Labour during the globalisation process, children were forced to work in exceedingly terrible conditions for extremely low wages. In the globalisation process, child pornography, the employment of girls and boys as sex workers and child abuse have become more frequent. Aside from child sexual assault, the rise in child murders, the fact that children are the most susceptible and easy targets for organised crime and the growing number of wars around the world illustrate the growing violence that children are exposed to as a result of globalisation. Computer games, which are often centred on war and involve heavy themes of violence, normalise and internalise violence in youngsters.
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David J. Hunter, Jonathan Erskine, Adrian Small, Tom McGovern, Chris Hicks, Paula Whitty and Edward Lugsden
The purpose of this paper is to examine a bold and ambitious scheme known as the North East transformation system (NETS). The principal aim of the NETS is the achievement of a…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine a bold and ambitious scheme known as the North East transformation system (NETS). The principal aim of the NETS is the achievement of a step-change in the quality of health services delivered to people living in the North East region of England. The paper charts the origins of the NETS and its early journey before describing what happened to it when the UK coalition government published its proposals for unexpected major structural change in the NHS. This had a profound impact on the leadership and direction of the NETS and resulted in it taking a different direction from that intended.
Design/methodology/approach
The research design took the form of a mixed methods, longitudinal 3.5-year study aimed at exploring transformational change in terms of content, context, process and outcomes. The sample of study sites comprised 14 NHS trusts in the North East region chosen to provide geographical coverage of the area and to reflect the scale, scope and variety of the bodies that formed part of the NETS programme. The qualitative component of the research, which the paper draws upon, included 68 semi-structured interviews, observational studies and focus groups. Data analysis made use of both deductive and inductive frameworks. The deductive framework adopted was Pettigrew et al.’s “receptive contexts for change” and four of the eight factors stood out as especially important and form the basis of the paper.
Findings
The fate of the NETS was shaped and influenced by the eight factors comprising the Pettigrew et al. receptive contexts for change framework but four factors in particular stood out as being especially significant: environmental pressure, quality and coherence of policy, key people leading change, supportive organisational culture. Perhaps the most significant lesson from the NETS is that achieving whole systems change is particularly vulnerable to the vicissitudes of politics especially where that system, like the UK NHS, is itself subject to those very same pressures. Yet, despite having an enormous influence on health policy, the political context is frequently avoided in research or not regarded as instrumental in determining the outcomes in respect of transformational change.
Research limitations/implications
The chief limitation is the credibility and authenticity of the interviews captured at particular points in time. These formed the datebase for subsequent analysis. The authors sought to guard against possible bias by supplementing interviews with observational studies and focus groups as well as running two dissemination events at which emerging findings from the study were subjected to independent external scrutiny and comment. These events provided a form of validation for the key study findings.
Practical implications
The research findings demonstrate the importance of context for the likely outcome and success of complex transformational change initiatives. These require time to become embedded and demonstrate results especially when focused on changing culture and behaviour. But, in practice, allowing sufficient time during which the organisation may remain sufficiently stable to allow the change intervention to run its course and become embedded and sustainable is highly problematic. The consequence is that bold and ambitious efforts like the NETS are not given the space and stability to prove themselves. Too often, politics and external environmental pressures intrude in ways that may prove dysfunctional and negative.
Social implications
Unless a different approach to transformational change and its leadership and management is adopted, then changing the NHS to enable it to appear more responsive to changing health care needs and expectations will remain a cause for concern. Ultimately the public will be the losers if the NHS remains insensitive to changing needs and expectations. The patient experience was at the centre of the NETS programme.
Originality/value
The study is original insofar as no other has sought to evaluate the NETS independently and over a reasonable time period. The research design, based on a mixed-methods approach, is unusual in evaluations of this nature. The study’s conclusions are not so original but their value lies in largely confirming and reinforcing the findings from other studies. It perhaps goes further in stressing the impact of politics on health policy and the negative consequences of constant organisational change on attempts to achieve deep change in the way the NHS is organised and led.
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The BEKK GARCH class of models presents a popular set of tools for applied analysis of dynamic conditional covariances. Within this class the analyst faces a range of model…
Abstract
The BEKK GARCH class of models presents a popular set of tools for applied analysis of dynamic conditional covariances. Within this class the analyst faces a range of model choices that trade off flexibility with parameter parsimony. In the most flexible unrestricted BEKK the parameter dimensionality increases quickly with the number of variables. Covariance targeting decreases model dimensionality but induces a set of nonlinear constraints on the underlying parameter space that are difficult to implement. Recently, the rotated BEKK (RBEKK) has been proposed whereby a targeted BEKK model is applied after the spectral decomposition of the conditional covariance matrix. An easily estimable RBEKK implies a full albeit constrained BEKK for the unrotated returns. However, the degree of the implied restrictiveness is currently unknown. In this paper, we suggest a Bayesian approach to estimation of the BEKK model with targeting based on Constrained Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (CHMC). We take advantage of suitable parallelization of the problem within CHMC utilizing the newly available computing power of multi-core CPUs and Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) that enables us to deal effectively with the inherent nonlinear constraints posed by covariance targeting in relatively high dimensions. Using parallel CHMC we perform a model comparison in terms of predictive ability of the targeted BEKK with the RBEKK in the context of an application concerning a multivariate dynamic volatility analysis of a Dow Jones Industrial returns portfolio. Although the RBEKK does improve over a diagonal BEKK restriction, it is clearly dominated by the full targeted BEKK model.
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Doris Bühler-Niederberger and Asma Khalid
To contextualise the contributions in this section, we present some data on growing up in South Asian societies. It is important to consider the fundamental diversity of…
Abstract
To contextualise the contributions in this section, we present some data on growing up in South Asian societies. It is important to consider the fundamental diversity of conditions in which children and youth live. We suggest some theoretical terms that are helpful in this regard and preview the contributions against this background. The studies on which the contributions are based impressively document the striking inequality in this region.
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Thailand has seen waves of youth-led protests over the past three years. Pro-democracy youth activists have vociferously criticised authority figures: teachers, parents and…
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Thailand has seen waves of youth-led protests over the past three years. Pro-democracy youth activists have vociferously criticised authority figures: teachers, parents and political leaders, especially the king. Drawing on vignettes assembled over a 14-year ethnographic work with young people in Thailand, as well as on current research on youth (online and offline) activism in Bangkok, I examine the multi-layered meaning of kinship in Thai society. The chapter reveals the political nature of childhood and parenthood as entangled modes of governance that come into being with other, both local and international cultural entities. I argue that Thai youth activists are attempting to rework dominant tropes that sustain “age-patriarchy” in the Buddhist kingdom. Their “engaged siblinghood” aims to reframe Thailand's generational order, refuting the moral principles that establish citizens' political subordination to monarchical paternalism and, relatedly, children's unquestionable respect to parents. As I show, Thai youth activists are doing so by engaging creatively with transnational discourses such as “democracy” and “children's rights,” while simultaneously drawing on K-pop icons, Japanese manga and Buddhist astrology. In articulating their dissent, these youths are thus bearers of a “bottom-up cosmopolitanism” that channels culturally hybrid, and politically subversive notions of childhood and citizenship in Southeast Asia's cyberspace and beyond. Whatever the outcome of their commitment, Thai youth activism signals the cultural disarticulation of the mytheme of the Father in Thailand, as well as the growing political influence of younger generations in the region.
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Doris Bühler-Niederberger, Xiaorong Gu, Jessica Schwittek and Elena Kim
In this introduction to our volume on growing up in Asian societies, we define the claim of this collection, explain the approach, and take stock of what it has been possible to…
Abstract
In this introduction to our volume on growing up in Asian societies, we define the claim of this collection, explain the approach, and take stock of what it has been possible to achieve empirically and conceptually for the further global study of childhood and youth. Our aim was to understand and present the young generation in its intergenerational relations. The 16 studies, divided into four regional sections, show a broad spectrum of very different conditions in which this young generation lives, of expectations with which they are confronted, and of strategies for action that are open to them. And they show the overriding importance of the commitments and solidarities between different age groups across societies. We propose – in the sense of a theoretical conclusion – three concepts that should be central to the study of childhood and youth experiences: (inter)generational order, existential inequality, and voice. Whereby, the latter concept also has to take into account walls of silence. The three concepts have extended prior work of childhood and youth studies with new analytical power and empirical relevance, based on this most comprehensive collection to date on growing up in Asian societies.