The unemployment rate (UR) is the leading macroeconomic indicator used in the credit card loss forecasting. COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented level of volatility in…
Abstract
Purpose
The unemployment rate (UR) is the leading macroeconomic indicator used in the credit card loss forecasting. COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented level of volatility in the labor market variables, leading to new challenges to use UR in the credit risk modeling framework. This paper examines the dynamic relationship between the credit card charge-off rate and the unemployment rate over time.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses quarterly observations of charge-off rates on credit card loans of all commercial banks from Q1 1990 to Q4 2020. Univariate, multivariable, machine learning, and regime-switching time series modeling are employed in this research.
Findings
The authors decompose UR into two components – temporary and permanent UR. The authors find the spike in UR during COVID-19 is mainly attributed to the surge in temporary layoffs. More importantly, the authors find that the credit card charge-off rate is primarily driven by permanent UR while temporary UR has little predictive power. During recessions, permanent UR seems to be a stronger indicator than total UR. This research highlights the importance of using permanent UR for credit risk modeling.
Originality/value
The findings in the research can be applied to the credit card loss forecasting and CECL reserve models. In addition, this research also has implications for banks, macroeconomic data vendors, regulators, and policymakers.
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Fanglin Shen, Quantong Guo, Hongyan Liang and Zilong Liu
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between investors' divergence of opinions and the asset prices of foreign stocks and also examine the effect of home…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between investors' divergence of opinions and the asset prices of foreign stocks and also examine the effect of home market country-level factors on the influence of divergency of opinions on stock price.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ panel data estimation with fixed effects to examine the host market response in divergent opinions to the earnings announcements. The paper uses the American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) of 42 countries from 1985 to 2011.
Findings
The authors find a negative relationship between differences of opinions and excess quarterly earnings announcement returns, and investors do process information asymmetrically based on good and bad earnings shocks. In addition, the authors find the negative relationship between divergent opinions and excess earnings announcement returns in ADRs is more pronounced in countries with short-sales restrictions, while other home-market country-level factors – the enforcement of insider trading law, legal origin, investor protection and rating on accounting standard – do not influence the relationship between investors' divergency of opinion and stock returns.
Originality/value
This paper is among the first to bring asymmetric effects on convergence in Miller framework and enhance the understanding of price convergence documented in Miller (1977). In addition, this study incorporates home-market country-level factors in explaining the relationship between investors' divergency of opinions and stock returns.
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Zilong Liu, Hongyan Liang and Chang Liu
In theory, the impact of debt liquidity risk (DLR) on the firm's future growth is ambiguous. This study aims to examine the empirical relationship between the DLR and firms'…
Abstract
Purpose
In theory, the impact of debt liquidity risk (DLR) on the firm's future growth is ambiguous. This study aims to examine the empirical relationship between the DLR and firms' growth rate using annual data for USA companies from 1976 to 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
Given the longitudinal nature of the data, the author uses OLS (ordinary least squares) regression methodology with fixed effects to control for unobserved characteristics that might affect the dependent variable. Instrument variable regression is also used to address the potential endogeneity problem.
Findings
The results show that firms having higher DLR, as proxied by more short-term debt, experience lower growth rate. An increase in firms' short-term debt decreases the firms' future growth rate as evidenced by lower assets, revenue and employee growth rate. Moreover, the authors' results show that small firms or firms with more investment opportunities grow fast if the firms take higher DLR. Finally, cyclical firms with higher DLR exhibit lower growth rate during the credit tighten period. The authors' results hold for both the pre-zero lower bound (ZLB) era and ZLB period.
Originality/value
To the authors' best knowledge, this is one of the earliest studies to carefully examine the effects of DLR on firms' growth rate. While prior research finds that firms with higher growth potential, measured by market-to-book (MTB) ratio, use more short-term debt, the authors' research directly addresses whether DLR affects firms' future growth rate. The authors’ findings also help explain why firms with high growth potential use more short-term debt.
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Hongyan Shi, Xiaoke Lin, Qiuxin Yan and Xiong Liang
The purpose of this paper was to study the influence of properties of printed circuit boards (PCBs) on the temperature during micro drilling and obtain the influential mechanism…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper was to study the influence of properties of printed circuit boards (PCBs) on the temperature during micro drilling and obtain the influential mechanism of PCBs based on temperature measurement.
Design/methodology/approach
Experiments were carried out to study the influence mechanism of PCB properties on micro hole drilling temperature under high spindle speed. The temperature measurement platform was applied, then the influence of components ratio of PCBs on the temperature of micro-drilling was analyzed by using comparative analysis method. The mass ratio of each kind of material in the PCB was defined as four levels and the influence mechanism of properties of PCBs based on temperature measurement was summarized.
Findings
Average filler and lower resin would have a positive impact on micro hole drilling temperature, and the smaller filler size and the even distribution would make it better.
Originality/value
An infrared temperature measurement platform was applied and influential mechanism of PCB properties on temperature was analyzed, which could provide the reference value on the optimization of temperature during micro drilling.
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Keywords
Bingcheng Yang, Hongyan Yu, Yu Yu and Miaoling Liu
Based on the online brand community, this study focuses on how online brand community experience affects customer voice and discusses the relationship between community engagement…
Abstract
Purpose
Based on the online brand community, this study focuses on how online brand community experience affects customer voice and discusses the relationship between community engagement and community commitment. Specifically, we examine the mediation effect of community engagement between community experience and customer voice and also the moderation role of community commitment.
Design/methodology/approach
The survey data is collected through the online survey of people who participate in the online mobile phone brand community. In total, 369 members of online community users (Huawei and Apple communities) were collected as the research samples. Then the structural equation model analysis was tested through the SPSS 25 and Mplus 7 in a two-stage analysis program.
Findings
The results show that (1) customer online brand community experience has a positive impact on customer voice; (2) community engagement mediates the positive relationship between online brand community experience and customer voice; and (3) community commitment plays a moderating role between customer experience and customer voice. Compared with low level customer's community commitment, when customer's community commitment is high, the level of community engagement has a greater mediation effect on the positive relationship between community experience and customer voice.
Research limitations/implications
On the one hand, the model of customer community experience to customer voice built in this paper has not been fully validated. Whether the model can get more robust results needs to be extended to more different community scenarios. On the other hand, this paper is actually cross-sectional data, which cannot strictly reveal the causal relationship. The authors recommend that future research may use other research methods to further reveal its internal mechanism.
Practical implications
This paper shows that customer's community experience has an important impact on customer voice behavior. Among them, information experience and sociability remain as the important factor affecting customer voice behavior, which is quiet important for maintaining brand community and product or service improvement. Brand community managers need to consistently create multiple forms of information presentation and interaction channels to enhance the information and social experience of community members.
Originality/value
First, this paper puts forward a new perspective on customer comments or feedback-customer voice, which provides a solid foundation and reference value for future scholars to explore such important phenomena. Second, the relationship between community experience and customer voice behavior was examined, which enriched the research on community experience and also discovered another positive significance of community experience in community construction. Finally, the authors examine the mediation effect of community engagement on customer voice behavior. Community engagement is one of the important indicators that reflexing community performance, which is of great significance to the brand community.
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Shiyuan Liu, Guangwu Sun, Hongfen Zuo, Xiaona Chen, Shanshan Shang and Hongyan Hu
The purpose of this paper is to predict the effect of bra pad specifications on breast deformation during jumping using a finite element (FE) method. Breast deformation is a key…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to predict the effect of bra pad specifications on breast deformation during jumping using a finite element (FE) method. Breast deformation is a key concern for women during exercise and can be effectively controlled with sports bras. In most studies, the deformation of breasts when wearing a sports bra is measured using motion capture devices to judge their effectiveness. However, the operation of such devices is highly complex and time-consuming. Computer-aided technology is an efficient way to simulate these experiments.
Design/methodology/approach
In this study, the breast model was obtained using three-dimensional (3D) scanning. Assembling models were obtained for FE analysis using reverse engineering and computer-aided design (CAD) software. The breast deformation results were obtained by completing pre-processing, solving and post-processing in the FE simulation software. To extend the application of these models, pads of different sizes and thicknesses within the bra were constructed to simulate the effect of pads on breast deformation.
Findings
The calculated root mean square errors were <1%, which indicated good agreement between the FE and experimental data in all the models. Nipple deformation was always the largest in most models. The smallest deformation occurred at the superior position of breasts in all models. In addition, larger pads were not effective in reducing breast deformation; however, thicker pads were.
Originality/value
The method developed in this study provides an effective way to predict breast deformation in multiple positions and is convenient for designing compression bras.
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Xiong Liang, Bing Li, Lianyu Fu, Xiaoyu Wu, Hongyan Shi, Taijiang Peng and Bin Xu
This paper aims to present the main factors affecting the mechanical drilling of the printed circuit board (PCB for short) micro-holes and method of micro-ultrasonic powder…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to present the main factors affecting the mechanical drilling of the printed circuit board (PCB for short) micro-holes and method of micro-ultrasonic powder molding (micro-UPM for short) by utilizing PCB micro-hole array.
Design/methodology/approach
To optimize the drilling process, the paper proposes the on-line monitoring methods for the drilling process including drilling force, drilling temperature, high-speed photography and vibration signals. Taking 0.10 and 0.15 mm micro-drilling as examples, the paper analyzes the drilling process of ultra-small micro-holes. Finally, by taking the PCBs with 0.10 and 0.15 mm micro-hole arrays as the micro-cavity inserts, utilizing ultra-high-molecule weight polyethylene powder with the average particle size of about 150 μm as raw material, two sizes of micro-cylinder array polymer parts are fabricated through micro-UPM process.
Findings
PCB micro-cavity inserts with micro-hole arrays fabricated by mechanical drilling has the advantages of low costs, high efficiency and good consistency. Taking 0.10 and 0.15 mm micro-drilling as examples, it is found that the both measured apertures are about 10.0 μm more than the diameter of the micro-drill bits on average. The average diameter of the micro-cylinders by micro-UPM process is smaller than that of the micro-hole with the same specification, while the value of the roughness of the cylinder surface is more than that of the hole-wall surface with the same specification.
Originality/value
This paper describes the challenges and the developments of mechanical drilling and by using PCB micro-cavity inserts with micro-hole arrays fabricated by mechanical drilling, two different micro-cylinder array polymer parts are successfully made and thus the application area of PCB micro-drilling is broadened.
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Ann Veeck, Hongyan Yu, Hongli Zhang, Hong Zhu and Fang (Grace) Yu
The purpose of this study is to explore the association between eating patterns, social identity and the well-being of adolescents via a mixed methods study of Chinese teenagers…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to explore the association between eating patterns, social identity and the well-being of adolescents via a mixed methods study of Chinese teenagers. The specific research questions presented in this study are as follows: What is the relationship between social eating and well-being? How is the relationship between social eating and well-being mediated by social identity?
Design/methodology/approach
This study is based on a sequential mixed methods study, including interviews with 16 teenage–parent dyads, and a large-scale survey of over 1,000 teenagers on their eating patterns, conducted with the support of public schools. A model that tests relationships among social eating, social identity and subjective well-being is developed and tested.
Findings
The results show that dining with family members leads to improved subjective well-being for teenagers, through a partial mediator of stronger family identity. However, dining with peers is not found to influence subjective well-being.
Research limitations/implications
The privileged position of family meals demonstrated through this study may be an artifact of the location of this study in one Chinese city. Further research is needed related to the connections among social identity, objective well-being and the social patterns of teenagers’ food consumption behavior.
Practical implications
To improve the subjective well-being of teenagers, families, public policy-makers and food marketers should support food consumption patterns that promote family meals.
Originality/value
While many food-related consumer studies focus on the individual, social and environmental influences of food choices of adolescents, few studies address how eating patterns affect overall well-being. These results reinforce the importance of understanding the effect of the social context of teenagers’ eating patterns on health and well-being.
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Jie Cui, Naiming Xie, Hongyan Ma, Hong liang Hu, Zhengya Yang and Chaoqing Yuan
– The purpose of this paper is to study the properties of derived grey verhulst prediction model with multiplication transformation and reduce its modeling complexity.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to study the properties of derived grey verhulst prediction model with multiplication transformation and reduce its modeling complexity.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper discussed the parameter characteristics of grey derived verhulst model under multiple transformation, and demonstrated its effect on its simulative value and predictive value by investigating the multiple transformation acting on the raw data sequence of this grey model. The parameter characteristics of this model under multiple transformations and its effect of the simulation value and forecasting value are analyzed by studying the properties of multiply transformation of this model.
Findings
The research finding shows that the modeling accuracy of derived grey verhulst model is in no relation to multiple transformations.
Practical implications
The above results imply that the data level can be reduced; the process of building derived grey verhulst model can be simplified; but the simulative and predictive accuracy of this model remain unchanged.
Originality/value
The paper succeeds in realising the properties of derived grey verhulst model by using the method of multiplication transformation, which is helpful to understand the modeling mechanism and expand the application range of derived grey verhulst model.
Details
Keywords
Xiong Liang, Bing Li, Xiaoyu Wu, Hongyan Shi, Kun Zeng and Yatao Wang
The purpose of this paper is to present a method for ultrasonically molding polymer powder in a micro plastic part mold. In the method, a printed circuit board (PCB) in which…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to present a method for ultrasonically molding polymer powder in a micro plastic part mold. In the method, a printed circuit board (PCB) in which micro‐hole arrays are drilled is used as a micro cavity insert. With the utilization of ultrasonic vibration, the polymer powder, which is prefilled and compacted in a micro cavity, mutually generates great sliding friction heat so as to be rapidly plasticized and molded.
Design/methodology/approach
Micro carbide drill bits of which the diameters are 100.0 μm, 150.0 μm and 200.0 μm, respectively, are used for drilling the PCB to form a micro‐hole array insert. Next, two kinds of various ultra‐high molecule weight polyethylene (UHMW‐PE) powder with various grain diameters are directly filled into a charging barrel and a mold cavity with the micro‐hole array insert. Proper process parameters are set on ultrasonic plasticizing and molding equipment so that a molding test can be performed. The melt of UHMW‐PE can be rapidly filled into the cavity. Finally, micro‐column array plastic parts are successfully prepared.
Findings
The micro‐hole array PCB is a mold insert which is quite applicable for the ultrasonic molding of the powder in the mold. When a molding material is the coarse UHMW‐PE powder with the grain diameter of about 350 μm, the diameter replication rates of the micro‐column array plastic parts become good in order with the increased micro‐hole diameter of the PCB. When the fine UHMW‐PE powder with the grain diameter of about 80 μm is adopted, the diameter replication rates of the micro‐column array plastic parts become good in order with the decreased micro‐hole diameter of the PCB.
Originality/value
In this paper, the micro‐column array plastic parts with good replicability are successfully prepared by a technique for ultrasonically plasticizing and molding in the cavity. The technique can be applied to the fields of medical treatment, communication, optics, chemistry and so on, such as biological micro needle arrays, micro biological chips, optical memories, and micro chemical reaction chips.