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Article
Publication date: 1 March 2024

Hon Chung Hui

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of financialisation on the changing structure of housing supply in Malaysia. The share of newly launched sub-MYR250,000 houses…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of financialisation on the changing structure of housing supply in Malaysia. The share of newly launched sub-MYR250,000 houses has been decreasing continuously in the past decade. This implies that housing developers are launching more expensive houses. The greater focus on higher cost housing could be attributed to inflation. But while input cost is rising, the housing sector has also become increasingly financialised. This claim can be supported by the rising share of mortgage and real estate loans in gross domestic product. Financialisation is a process in which the financial sector becomes more dominant relative to the real sector. The extent to which this process is responsible for the changing structure of housing supply in Malaysia is investigated.

Design/methodology/approach

A survey of the literature suggested that the decreasing the proportion of newly launched sub-MYR250,000 housing could be result of rising input cost, greater degree of financialisation and changing market concentration. Thus, long-run cointegrating equations were formulated and estimated. These equations linked housing share with financialisation, market structure and input cost. The quantitative and qualitative impact of financialisation on the structure of housing supply is of interest.

Findings

The analyses of secondary data suggested that financialisation and input cost did indeed contribute to the decrease in proportion of newly launched sub-MYR250,000 housing. However, the impact of market concentration on housing share was ambiguous. This conclusion survived several robustness checks.

Practical implications

The financialisation of the housing sector implies that developers are increasingly building for profits instead of accommodating the social objective of providing shelter. This result is unsettling because access to adequate housing is a human right. The transformation of housing from the concept of a shelter to a tradable, money-making asset could be a major contributor to the declining housing affordability in the country. Thus, efforts to improve affordability must take account of the effects of financialisation.

Originality/value

An empirical framework for assessing the changes in the structure of housing supply was developed. Existing studies tended to focus only on the volume of housing supply. It is a comprehensive study on changes in the structure of housing supply. Second, while existing studies on the financialisation of housing are mostly qualitative in methodology, this paper offers a quantitative assessment of the financialisation in the housing sector.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

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Article
Publication date: 19 January 2021

Hon Chung Hui

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the long-run relationship between geopolitical risk and exchange rates in four ASEAN countries.

1615

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the long-run relationship between geopolitical risk and exchange rates in four ASEAN countries.

Design/methodology/approach

We augment theoretical nominal exchange rate models available in the literature with the geopolitical risk index developed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2019), and then estimate these models using the ARDL approach to Cointegration.

Findings

Our analysis uncovers evidence of Cointegration in the exchange rate models when the MYR-USD, IDR-USD, THB-USD and PHP-USD exchange rates are used as dependent variable. Next, geopolitical risk is a significant long-run driver for these exchange rates. Third, in all countries higher geopolitical risk leads to a depreciation of domestic currency.

Research limitations/implications

There are implications for entrepreneurs, central banks, portfolio managers and arbitrageurs who actively trade in financial markets. Financial market players can benefit from a better understanding of how geopolitical events affect the portfolio of financial assets across various countries, while entrepreneurs can work out hedging strategies.

Originality/value

This is a contribution to the study of interlinkages between political risk and foreign exchange markets. It is the first study to adopt the geopolitical risk index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2019) to the study the foreign exchange markets of ASEAN countries.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 17 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

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Article
Publication date: 5 October 2010

Hon‐Chung Hui

Various empirical studies have demonstrated that house prices in different geographic regions have a tendency to co‐move. But these studies have focused on developed economies in…

3415

Abstract

Purpose

Various empirical studies have demonstrated that house prices in different geographic regions have a tendency to co‐move. But these studies have focused on developed economies in the west. The purpose of this paper is to test this hypothesis in the case of three major urban areas in the rapidly developing economy of Malaysia, namely Klang Valley, Penang and Johor.

Design/methodology/approach

Using Pesaran et al.'s bounds testing approach to cointegration and Granger non‐causality analysis, the short‐run and long‐run dynamics of regional house prices are analysed.

Findings

First, house prices in all three regions appear to be cointegrated. Second, there is evidence of short‐run bi‐directional causality between house prices in all regions. Third, long‐run house price movements in Johor are not Granger‐caused by house prices in Klang Valley and Penang. This observation could be rationalised in the light of the argument that Johor house values may be more closely aligned with activities in the Singaporean economy, given the region's geographic proximity to Singapore.

Practical implications

The findings have several practical implications for housing investors who intend to optimise investment decisions on housing purchases. The understanding of the nature of regional house dynamics could also enrich the government's knowledge of how the local housing markets work and enable the design and implementation of relevant housing policies.

Originality/value

This is the first known study that establishes stylised facts of lead‐lag relationships for regional house prices, while also providing short‐run and long‐run estimates of regional house price interactions for Malaysia.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 3 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

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Article
Publication date: 31 May 2011

Hon‐Chung Hui

There exists a voluminous literature which examines house price diffusions across space and quality tiers. Numerous observers have pointed out that housing price dynamics can also…

1580

Abstract

Purpose

There exists a voluminous literature which examines house price diffusions across space and quality tiers. Numerous observers have pointed out that housing price dynamics can also be analysed in terms of house price diffusions across different housing sub‐markets (e.g. landed vs non‐landed housing). However, there has been no research to document these cyclical interactions. The purpose of this paper is to remedy this research gap by offering evidence of cyclical dynamics between different housing sub‐markets for the case of Malaysia.

Design/methodology/approach

The dynamics between house prices of non‐landed housing (condominium) and landed housing (terrace, semi‐detached and detached housing sub‐markets) are analysed. Band‐pass filters are first used to extract the cyclical components from the four house price series. Next, interactions between house price cycles are documented using cross‐correlation analysis, Granger‐causality tests and impulse response functions. Finally, the out‐of‐sample forecasting performance of the respective house price series is examined.

Findings

The author finds that condominium price cycles are exogenous in that they lead the price cycles in other housing sub‐markets by one‐ to two‐quarters. Second, condominium price cycles drive price cycles in the terrace and detached sub‐markets. Third, cycles in condominium prices are able to predict house price cycles in other sub‐markets with a high degree of precision.

Originality/value

This is the first known study that establishes stylised facts of lead‐lag relationships between house price cycles in different housing sub‐markets. The findings have several practical implications for housing investors who intend to optimise investment decisions on housing purchases.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 4 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

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