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1 – 3 of 3The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent of the trade integration of Thailand with the Mekong region in comparison with its trade integration with the other major…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent of the trade integration of Thailand with the Mekong region in comparison with its trade integration with the other major partners (advanced ASEAN, China, India, Japan, and the USA).
Design/methodology/approach
The study adopts the gravity trade model as an analytical framework, for the period from the 1980s through the 2000s.
Findings
It is found that Thailand's trade integration with the Mekong region has remarkably grown from the 1980s to the 2000s, in the sense that Thailand's total trade with the Mekong region, which lies below the gravity‐model standard in the 1980s, exceeds the standard in the 1990s and the 2000s. However, it is also found that the intensity of Thailand's trade integration with the Mekong region is still behind that with advanced ASEAN even in the 2000s. It might come from the higher service‐link costs that prevent the Mekong region from being fully involved in the international production network.
Originality/value
The paper may be valuable to the policy makers and researchers in the Mekong region, since it contributes to reviewing the two‐decade progress of the regional cooperation of the Greater Mekong Subregion from such quantitative perspectives as trade integration.
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Keywords
We recall Sidney Greenstreet's profile of Humphrey Bogart in The Maltese Falcon: ‘Upon my soul sir, you are a character, you really are.’ The same might be said of Gorby, the…
Abstract
We recall Sidney Greenstreet's profile of Humphrey Bogart in The Maltese Falcon: ‘Upon my soul sir, you are a character, you really are.’ The same might be said of Gorby, the leader of the second most powerful country in the world, whose stated philosophy over seventy years has been: profit is a moral evil.
Jun Wu, Yingli Pan and Qi Zhu
– The purpose of this paper is to identify the determinants for currency internationalization and forecast the potential of RMB as an international reserve currency.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to identify the determinants for currency internationalization and forecast the potential of RMB as an international reserve currency.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper performs linear or non-linear regressions of the shares of eight major international reserve currencies as the reserve assets in global central banks on the macro economic and financial variables of their corresponding countries to identify the determinants for their international positions, and conducts an “counter-factual simulation” for the potential of RMB as an international reserve currency.
Findings
This paper finds that the economic size and the “network externalities” are the most important determinants for the international status of a reserve currency; that exchange rate volatility has negative impacts; the conditions for the RMB internationalization are basically available. The simulation for the potential of RMB as an international reserve currency reveals that the international role of RMB could surpass that of the Japanese Yen and the British Pound, and get close to Euro in the coming 15 years. Based on the empirical evidence, this paper suggests a promoting strategy for RMB internationalization.
Research limitations/implications
This paper has not taken the influence of economic systemic and political factors on the process of RMB internationalization into account.
Practical implications
RMB internationalization promotion should follow the strategy of “stably create RMB international demand in the initial period and dramatically release the RMB overseas supply in the latter period” in the coming 15 years.
Originality/value
The conclusions and policy implications are from the results of the empirical analysis on the 45-year historical experience on the eight main international currencies.
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