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Article
Publication date: 28 April 2023

Himanshu Goel and Bhupender Kumar Som

This study aims to predict the Indian stock market (Nifty 50) by employing macroeconomic variables as input variables identified from the literature for two sub periods, i.e. the…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to predict the Indian stock market (Nifty 50) by employing macroeconomic variables as input variables identified from the literature for two sub periods, i.e. the pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (June 2011–February 2020) and during the COVID-19 (March 2020–June 2021).

Design/methodology/approach

Secondary data on macroeconomic variables and Nifty 50 index spanning a period of last ten years starting from 2011 to 2021 have been from various government and regulatory websites. Also, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was trained with the scaled conjugate gradient algorithm for predicting the National Stock exchange's (NSE) flagship index Nifty 50.

Findings

The findings of the study reveal that Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG) algorithm achieved 96.99% accuracy in predicting the Indian stock market in the pre-COVID-19 scenario. On the contrary, the proposed ANN model achieved 99.85% accuracy in during the COVID-19 period. The findings of this study have implications for investors, portfolio managers, domestic and foreign institution investors, etc.

Originality/value

The novelty of this study lies in the fact that are hardly any studies that forecasts the Indian stock market using artificial neural networks in the pre and during COVID-19 periods.

Details

EconomiA, vol. 24 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1517-7580

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Article
Publication date: 9 August 2021

Himanshu Goel and Narinder Pal Singh

Artificial neural network (ANN) is a powerful technique to forecast the time series data such as the stock market. Therefore, this study aims to predict the Indian stock market…

377

Abstract

Purpose

Artificial neural network (ANN) is a powerful technique to forecast the time series data such as the stock market. Therefore, this study aims to predict the Indian stock market closing price using ANNs.

Design/methodology/approach

The input variables identified from the literature are some macroeconomic variables and a global stock market factor. The study uses an ANN with Scaled Conjugate Gradient Algorithm (SCG) to forecast the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex.

Findings

The empirical findings reveal that the ANN model is able to achieve 93% accuracy in predicting the BSE Sensex closing prices. Moreover, the results indicate that the Morgan Stanley Capital International world index is the most important variable and the index of industrial production is the least important in predicting Sensex.

Research limitations/implications

The findings of the study have implications for the investors of all categories such as foreign institutional investors, domestic institutional investors and investment houses.

Originality/value

The novelty of this study lies in the fact that there are hardly any studies that use ANN to forecast the Indian stock market using macroeconomic indicators.

Details

International Journal of Ethics and Systems, vol. 38 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-9369

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Article
Publication date: 19 March 2020

Himanshu Seth, Saurabh Chadha, Namita Ruparel, Puneet Kumar Arora and Satyendra Kumar Sharma

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the relationship between working capital management (WCM) efficiency and exogenous variables of the Indian manufacturing…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the relationship between working capital management (WCM) efficiency and exogenous variables of the Indian manufacturing sector along with its sub-industries that are involved in export activities.

Design/methodology/approach

Panel regression (fixed effects) was used on a sample of 563 Indian manufacturing firms involved in export activities, covering a time period from 2008 to 2018.

Findings

Industry-wise results showed a significant relation of leverage, net fixed asset ratio, profitability, asset turnover ratio, total asset growth rate and productivity with cash conversion cycle (CCC).

Research limitations/implications

Firstly, having taken a sample from a developing economy, the results of our study may be generalizable only among developing contexts. Secondly, the time period taken in this study (2008–2018) has witnessed several economic fluctuations such as recession and demonetization which might differ for the firms or countries in normal conditions.

Practical implications

An improved working capital model could advance the firms' performance by reducing the CCC of the firm, thereby creating efficiency in WCM. In addition, the results of this study could be helpful for many stakeholders such as working capital managers, debt holders, investors, financial consultants and others for monitoring the firms.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the existing literature in the relation between WCM efficiency and exogenous variables of the Indian manufacturing firms engaged in the export activities. Moreover, this study is one of the few research studies to investigate this relationship among Indian export firms in different industries, thus filling the gap in similar work done in other countries.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 46 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

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Article
Publication date: 28 August 2020

Himanshu Seth, Saurabh Chadha and Satyendra Sharma

This paper evaluates the working capital management (WCM) efficiency of the Indian manufacturing industries through data envelopment analysis (DEA) and empirically investigates…

1420

Abstract

Purpose

This paper evaluates the working capital management (WCM) efficiency of the Indian manufacturing industries through data envelopment analysis (DEA) and empirically investigates the influence of several exogenous variables on the WCM efficiency.

Design/methodology/approach

WCM efficiency was calculated using BCC input-oriented DEA model. Further, the panel data fixed effect model was used on a sample of 1391 Indian manufacturing firms spread across nine industries, covering the period from 2008 to 2019.

Findings

Firstly, the WCM efficiency of Indian manufacturing industries has been stable over the analysis period. Secondly, the capacity to generate internal resources, size, age, productivity, gross domestic product and interest rate significantly influence WCM efficiency.

Research limitations/implications

First, the selected study period has observed various economic uncertainties including demonetization and recession, so the scenario might differ in normal conditions or country-wise. Second, the findings might not be generalizable to the developed economies, since the current study sample belongs to a developing economy, which further provides scope for comparative study.

Practical implications

An efficient model for managing the working capital comprising most vital determinants could enhance the firms' valuation and goodwill. Also, this study would be helpful for financial executives, manufacturers, policymakers, investors, researchers and other stakeholders.

Originality/value

This study estimates the industry-wise WCM efficiency of the Indian manufacturing sector and suggests measures to the concerned parties on areas to focus on and provide evidence on the estimated relationships of firm-level and macroeconomic determinants with WCM efficiency.

Details

International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, vol. 70 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1741-0401

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Article
Publication date: 19 July 2019

Himanshu Seth, Saurabh Chadha and Satyendra Sharma

The purpose of this study is to get insights into working capital management (WCM) practices and the determinants of its efficiency prevailing in the Indian manufacturing sector…

804

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to get insights into working capital management (WCM) practices and the determinants of its efficiency prevailing in the Indian manufacturing sector using firm-specific as well as macro-economic variables by examining three efficiency models, i.e. cash conversion cycle (CCC), cash conversion efficiency (CCE) and net working capital level (NWCL).

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses panel data techniques on 1,207 firms of the Indian manufacturing sector, as well as on its nine key manufacturing industries from 2008 to 2018 for the analysis.

Findings

Several firm-specific variables such as net fixed asset ratio, size of the firm, profitability, firm’s growth, asset turnover ratio, age of the firm, interest rate and leverage have significant effect on WCM efficiency, whereas total assets growth rate, gross domestic product growth rate and inflation rate have insignificant effect on WCM efficiency.

Research limitations/implications

The study provides new empirical evidence on the short-term liquidity management of manufacturing firms prevailing in the developing countries such as India. The findings are particularly relevant in the present scenario when the liquidity levels are decelerating and there is a marked slowdown in private credit flows to the manufacturing sector due to the problem of burgeoning non-performing assets.

Originality/value

This study examines WCM efficiency exhaustively by incorporating both firm-specific and macro-economic variables using three efficiency measures, i.e. CCC, CCE and NWCL, results of which emerged as an answer to an efficient WCM.

Details

Journal of Global Operations and Strategic Sourcing, vol. 13 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-5364

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Article
Publication date: 19 March 2024

Himanshu Seth, Deepak Deepak, Namita Ruparel, Saurabh Chadha and Shivi Agarwal

This study aims to assess the efficiency of managing working capital in 1,388 Indian manufacturing firms from 2008 to 2019 and investigate the effects of firm-specific and…

245

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to assess the efficiency of managing working capital in 1,388 Indian manufacturing firms from 2008 to 2019 and investigate the effects of firm-specific and macro-level determinants on working capital management (WCM) efficiency.

Design/methodology/approach

The current study accommodates a slack-based measure (SBM) in data envelopment analysis (DEA) for computing WCM efficiency. Further, we implement a panel data fixed-effects model that controls for heterogeneity across firms in determining the relationships of selected variables with WCM efficiency.

Findings

The results highlight that manufacturing firms operate at around 50 percent efficiency, which is constant throughout the study period. Furthermore, among the selected variables, yield, earnings, age, size, ability to create internal resources, interest rate and gross domestic product (GDP) significantly affect WCM efficiency.

Originality/value

Instead of the traditional models used for assessing efficiency, the SBM-DEA model is unit-invariant and monotone for slacks, implying that it can handle zero and negative data, which overcomes the incapability of prior DEA models. Hence, this provides accurate efficiency scores for robust analysis. Additionally, this paper provides a holistic working capital model recognizing firm-specific and macro-level determinants for a more explicit estimation of the relationship between WCM efficiency and the selected determinants.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 50 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

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Article
Publication date: 23 September 2024

Himanshu Seth, Deepak Kumar Tripathi, Saurabh Chadha and Ankita Tripathi

This study aims to present an innovative predictive methodology that transitions from traditional efficiency assessment techniques to a forward-looking strategy for evaluating…

114

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to present an innovative predictive methodology that transitions from traditional efficiency assessment techniques to a forward-looking strategy for evaluating working capital management(WCM) and its determinants by integrating data envelopment analysis (DEA) with artificial neural networks (ANN).

Design/methodology/approach

A slack-based measure (SBM) within DEA was used to evaluate the WCME of 1,388 firms in the Indian manufacturing sector across nine industries over the period from April 2009 to March 2024. Subsequently, a fixed-effects model was used to determine the relationships between selected determinants and WCME. Moreover, the multi-layer perceptron method was applied to calculate the artificial neural network (ANN). Finally, sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the relative significance of key predictors on WCME.

Findings

Manufacturing firms consistently operate at around 50% WCME throughout the study period. Furthermore, among the selected variables, ability to create internal resources, leverage, growth, total fixed assets and productivity are relatively significant vital predictors influencing WCME.

Originality/value

The integration of SBM-DEA and ANN represents the primary contribution of this research, introducing a novel approach to efficiency assessment. Unlike traditional models, the SBM-DEA model offers unit invariance and monotonicity for slacks, allowing it to handle zero and negative data, which overcomes the limitations of previous DEA models. This innovation leads to more accurate efficiency scores, enabling robust analysis. Furthermore, applying neural networks provides predictive insights by identifying critical predictors for WCME, equipping firms to address WCM challenges proactively.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 20 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

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Article
Publication date: 20 November 2020

Himanshu Seth, Saurabh Chadha, Satyendra Kumar Sharma and Namita Ruparel

This study develops an integrated approach combining data envelopment analysis (DEA) and structural equation modeling (SEM) for estimating the working capital management (WCM…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study develops an integrated approach combining data envelopment analysis (DEA) and structural equation modeling (SEM) for estimating the working capital management (WCM) efficiency and evaluating the effects of diverse exogenous variables on the WCM efficiency and firms' performance.

Design/methodology/approach

DEA is applied for deriving WCM efficiency for 212 Indian manufacturing firms over a period from 2008 to 2019. Also, the effect of human capital (HC), structural capital (SC), cost of external financing (CEF), interest coverage (IC), leverage (LEV), net fixed asset ratio (NFA), asset turnover ratio (ATR) and productivity (PRD) on the WCM efficiency and firms' performance is examined using SEM.

Findings

The average mean efficiency scores ranging from 0.623 to 0.654 highlight the firms operating at around 60% of WCM efficiency only, which is a major concern for Indian manufacturing firms. Further, IC, LEV, NFA, ATR revealed direct effect on the WCM efficiency as well as indirect effect on firms' performance, whereas CEF had only a direct effect on WCM efficiency. HC, SC and PRD had no effects on WCM efficiency and firms' performance.

Practical implications

The findings offer vital insights in guiding policy decisions for Indian manufacturing firms.

Originality/value

This study is the first to identify the endogenous nature of the relationship of HC, SC, CEF, IC altogether with firms' performance, compounded by the WCM efficiency, by applying a comprehensive methodology of DEA and SEM and provides an efficiency performance model for better decision-making.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. 28 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

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Article
Publication date: 22 November 2011

Abhishek Vaish, Aditya Prabhakar, Himanshu Mishra, Nupur Dayal, Shishir Kumar Singh, Utkarsh Goel and Natalie Coull

The aim of this research is to demonstrate the importance of placing a valuation on information assets and to propose a new valuation technique that complements existing valuation…

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Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this research is to demonstrate the importance of placing a valuation on information assets and to propose a new valuation technique that complements existing valuation methods and provides improved results. It seeks to answer the following research question: what are the attributes of information relevant to value and how can they be used to produce a valuation of the information?

Design/methodology/approach

Using a test bed, hosted on the college's intranet for 12 days, three important variables were calculated: accessibility, lifespan and outcome across five files. Calculating these three variables is essential to conducting an accurate valuation of the information asset.

Findings

The research demonstrates the relationships between these variable (accessibility, lifespan and outcome) as well as showing that they have a critical impact on the value of the information asset. The findings provide a strong rationale for the practitioner or researcher to adopt the model in real time situations. The correlation coefficients of our attributes are: 0.9996 for accessibility and lifespan; 0.9755 for accessibility and outcome and 0.9754 for lifespan and outcome.

Research limitations/implications

Due to the sensitive nature of some of the information held by the organization, the observations were somewhat limited. However, the model could be replicated with a collaborative arrangement between the organization and academia.

Practical implications

This paper aims to provide a new model for risk management that can be used effectively to conduct a valuation of information assets. The approach will help the organization to better quantify their information assets and will prove to be a useful tool for the next generation of Information security managers.

Originality/value

This paper determines the valuation of information assets based on three variables; accessibility, lifespan and outcome. These variables have been identified from the extensive literature review in the area of intangible assets.

Details

Information Management & Computer Security, vol. 19 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0968-5227

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Article
Publication date: 31 December 2024

Uttam Karki, Himanshu Seth and Vaneet Bhatia

This study aims to scrutinize the role of environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance and its indicators in achieving working capital management (WCM) efficiency.

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to scrutinize the role of environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance and its indicators in achieving working capital management (WCM) efficiency.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a sample comprising 520 firm-year observations from Indian listed firms for the period from 2017 to 2021, the current study estimates WCM efficiency using the Banker, Charnes and Cooper (BCC) input-oriented model of data envelopment analysis (DEA). In addition, this study performs baseline, robustness and heterogeneity tests to examine the effect of ESG performance and its components on WCM efficiency.

Findings

Our findings show that firms with high ESG performance better manage short-term liquidity. Also, environmental performance (EP), social performance (SP) and governance performance (GP) highlight a similar positive association with WCM efficiency. As per the heterogeneity test results, both high- and low-sustainable firms showcase the necessity of ESG performance to achieve efficiency in managing their working capital.

Practical implications

The findings emphasize the need for managers and policymakers to integrate sustainable practices with financial strategies, enhancing both short-term stability and long-term sustainability goals and thereby guiding effective policy and governance enhancements.

Originality/value

We attempt to adjudicate the role of sustainability on WCM efficiency from an emerging country perspective, which has not yet been explored. Our study also makes a methodological contribution by pioneering the DEA in the context of ESG and working capital.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

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