Gregory N. Price and Doreen P. Adu
This paper aims to consider if an initial driver of the cross-country global coronavirus pandemic was trade openness with China.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to consider if an initial driver of the cross-country global coronavirus pandemic was trade openness with China.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors estimate simple, seemingly unrelated and zero-inflated count data specifications of a gravity model of trade between China and its trading partners, where the number of human coronavirus infections in a country is a function of the number of distinct good/services exported and imported from China.
Findings
Parameter estimates reveal that the number of early cross-country human coronavirus infections increased with respect to trade openness with China, as measured by the number of distinct Chinese exported and imported goods/services, and can account for approximately 24% of early infections among China's trading partners. The findings suggest that one of the costs of trade openness and globalization is that they can be a driver of cross-country human disease pandemics.
Originality/value
This inquiry constitutes a first approach at embedding the possible disease pandemic costs of free trade, trade openness and globalization within a trade gravity model.
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Gregory N. Price and Juliet U. Elu
The purpose of this paper is to use a neoclassical factor pricing approach to carbon emissions, and consider whether the productivity of carbon emissions differs in Sub-Saharan…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to use a neoclassical factor pricing approach to carbon emissions, and consider whether the productivity of carbon emissions differs in Sub-Saharan Africa relative to the rest of the world.
Design/methodology/approach
Allowing for possible cross-country dependency and correlation in the effects of the factors of production on the level of gross domestic product per capita, the authors estimate the parameters of a cross-country net production function with carbon emissions as an input.
Findings
While there is a “Sub-Saharan Africa effect” whereby carbon emissions are less productive as an input relative to the rest of the world; practically it is equally productive relative to all other countries suggesting a unfavorable distributional impact if Sub-Saharan Africa were to implement carbon emissions reductions consistent with the Kyoto Protocol.
Research limitations/implications
If global warming is not anthropogenic or caused by carbon emissions, the parameter estimates do not inform an optimal and equitable carbon emissions policy based upon Sub-Saharan Africans reducing their short-run living standards.
Practical implications
Fair and equitable global carbon emissions policies should aim to treat Sub-Saharan African countries in proportion to their carbon emissions, and not unfairly impose emissions constraints on them equal to that of countries in the industrialized west.
Social implications
As Sub-Saharan Africa has a disproportionate number of individuals in the world living on less than one dollar a day, the results suggest “Black Africa” may not be able to afford being a “Green Africa.”
Originality/value
The results are the first to quantify the effects of carbon emissions restrictions on output and their distributional implications for Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Gregory N. Price and Juliet U. Elu
The purpose of this paper is to consider whether regional currency integration in sub-Saharan Africa ameliorates global macroeconomic shocks by considering the impact of the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to consider whether regional currency integration in sub-Saharan Africa ameliorates global macroeconomic shocks by considering the impact of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis on economic growth. This suggests that Central Africa Franc Zone (CFAZ) eurocurrency union membership amplifies the effects of global business cycles in sub-Saharan Africa.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors estimate the parameters of a quantity theory model of economic growth within a Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) Framework.
Findings
Parameter estimates from GEE specifications reveal that the contraction in credit during the financial crisis of 2008-2009 had larger adverse growth effects on sub-Saharan African countries who were members of the CFAZ eurocurrency union. The authors also find that sub-Saharan African countries who were members of the CFAZ eurocurrency union were more likely to experience a contraction in credit.
Originality/value
As far as the authors can discern, no existing empirical growth models use a GEE framework to estimate parameters of interest. The GEE parameter estimates are distribution-free, robust with respect to unknown forms of heteroskedasticity, and control for a wide variety of error structures that can induce bias in panel data parameter estimates.
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In this paper, it is argued that previous estimates of the expected cost of equity and the expected arithmetic risk premium in the UK show a degree of upward bias. Given the…
Abstract
In this paper, it is argued that previous estimates of the expected cost of equity and the expected arithmetic risk premium in the UK show a degree of upward bias. Given the importance of the risk premium in regulatory cost of capital in the UK, this has important policy implications. There are three reasons why previous estimates could be upward biased. The first two arise from the comparison of estimates of the realised returns on government bond (‘gilt’) with those of the realised and expected returns on equities. These estimates are frequently used to infer a risk premium relative to either the current yield on index‐linked gilts or an ‘adjusted’ current yield measure. This is incorrect on two counts; first, inconsistent estimates of the risk‐free rate are implied on the right hand side of the capital asset pricing model; second, they compare the realised returns from a bond that carried inflation risk with the realised and expected returns from equities that may be expected to have at least some protection from inflation risk. The third, and most important, source of bias arises from uplifts to expected returns. If markets exhibit ‘excess volatility’, or f part of the historical return arises because of revisions to expected future cash flows, then estimates of variance derived from the historical returns or the price growth must be used with great care when uplifting average expected returns to derive simple discount rates. Adjusting expected returns for the effect of such biases leads to lower expected cost of equity and risk premia than those that are typically quoted.
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This chapter investigates the nature of the transformation of macroeconomics by focusing on the impact of the Great Depression on economic doctrines. There is no doubt that the…
Abstract
This chapter investigates the nature of the transformation of macroeconomics by focusing on the impact of the Great Depression on economic doctrines. There is no doubt that the Great Depression exerted an enormous influence on economic thought, but the exact nature of its impact should be examined more carefully. In this chapter, I examine the transformation from a perspective which emphasizes the interaction between economic ideas and economic events, and the interaction between theory and policy rather than the development of economic theory. More specifically, I examine the evolution of what became known as macroeconomics after the Depression in terms of an ongoing debate among the “stabilizers” and their critics. I further suggest using four perspectives, or schools of thought, as measures to locate the evolution and transformation; the gold standard mentality, liquidationism, the Treasury view, and the real-bills doctrine. By highlighting these four economic ideas, I argue that what happened during the Great Depression was the retreat of the gold standard mentality, the complete demise of liquidationism and the Treasury view, and the strange survival of the real-bills doctrine. Each of those transformations happened not in response to internal debates in the discipline, but in response to government policies and real-world events.
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The purpose of this paper is to study the dynamic relationship between foreign exchange and stock returns. Specifically, the authors examine the impact of the 2008 financial…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to study the dynamic relationship between foreign exchange and stock returns. Specifically, the authors examine the impact of the 2008 financial crises on the relation between foreign exchange and stock returns in the MENA region.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors examine the long-run relation between these two variables using VECM and the authors study the volatility behavior of these two variables using the Dynamic VECH–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The sample covers the MENA region over the period 2004–2015.
Findings
The results indicate a regime shift in three countries: Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco. In addition, the results assert asymmetric relation between stock returns and changes in exchange rates during pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Modeling the volatility of the foreign exchange and stock return and their covariance using VECH–GARCH suggests that the persistence in volatility is more prominent in the crisis/post-crisis period as compared with the pre-crisis period. Finally, the authors also find more significant results for the persistence parameter in the covariance between stock return and foreign exchange in the crisis/post-crisis period as compared with the pre-crisis period.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the studies by Wong and Li (2010) and Caporale et al. (2014) are the only two that have examined the interaction between stock prices and foreign exchange during the recent financial crisis of 2008. To the authors’ knowledge, none of the previous literature examined the impact of financial 2008 crisis on the relation between foreign exchange and stock prices in the MENA.
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Sohil Idnani, Masudul Hasan Adil, Hoshiar Mal and Ashutosh Kolte
This paper aims to understand the effect of a change in Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) of India and the USA on investors' sentiment in the Indian context, consisting of Sensex…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to understand the effect of a change in Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) of India and the USA on investors' sentiment in the Indian context, consisting of Sensex returns and volatility index (Vix).
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ bounds testing approach to cointegration to capture the short-and long-run effects of EPU on investors' sentiment, along with impulse response functions and variance decompositions to check the effect of a shock on Sensex and Vix.
Findings
The study concludes the existence of a cointegrating relationship for both models, that is, Vix and Sensex. In the long-run, changes in EPU_India affect Vix and Sensex positively and negatively, respectively. On the other hand, EPU_USA affects Vix and Sensex positively. Furthermore, Gregory and Hansen (1996) cointegration with endogenous structural break reveals a long-run cointegrating relationship for both models.
Research limitations/implications
The effect of EPUs on investors' sentiment reveals that when there is an uncertain event that adversely affects the stock prices, investors should not make haste to take a decision as the impact on stock prices perturbation might be temporary. Therefore, one should persevere for the dip in prices to hit the desired target.
Originality/value
Various studies look at the effect of cross-country EPU on the home country, However, there is no such study in the Indian context. The present study examines the impact of India's EPU on investors' sentiments after controlling the USA's EPU, one of India's largest trading partners and a key determinant of global economic policy.