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Patricia Lustig, John Reynolds, Gill Ringland and Richard Walsh
This paper describes the ways in which the next decade will be different from the last. Times are becoming more and more turbulent and a new kind of organisation is needed to…
Abstract
This paper describes the ways in which the next decade will be different from the last. Times are becoming more and more turbulent and a new kind of organisation is needed to survive and thrive in these times ‐ what we call a purposeful self‐renewing organisation (PS‐RO). This, in turn, requires a different style of organisational leadership ‐ leadership as a quality that is dispersed across the organisation not confined solely to the cadre of senior managers listed on an organisational chart.
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This paper focuses on the role of scenarios in planning research and development (R&D). R&D programs often focus on the technology, which is relatively forecastable. But the…
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This paper focuses on the role of scenarios in planning research and development (R&D). R&D programs often focus on the technology, which is relatively forecastable. But the products that are the ultimate output of R&D programs will have to succeed a world in which lifestyles and society are changing. By using scenarios to explore alternative views of the future, R&D programs can be designed to anticipate change, to watch for signs of the changes, and to be more robust. The paper describes in some detail an example of using scenarios for an information and communication technology R&D program. The implications for corporate planners are detailed.
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This research highlights the scenarios that might serve as a strategic vision to describe a future beyond the current library, one which both guides provosts and creates a map for…
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This research highlights the scenarios that might serve as a strategic vision to describe a future beyond the current library, one which both guides provosts and creates a map for the transformation of human resources and technology in the university research libraries. The scenarios offer managerial leaders an opportunity to envision new roles for librarians and staff which brings a much needed focus on the development of human resources as well as a thought-stream to understand decisions which effectively and systematically move the organization toward a strategic vision.
These scenarios also outline possible future directions research libraries could take by focusing on perspectives from library directors, provosts, and administrators for human resources. The four case study scenarios introduce potential future roles for librarians and highlight the unsustainability of the current scholarly communications model as well as uncertain factors related to the political, social, technical, and demographic issues facing campuses. Given the changes institutions face, scenarios allow directors to include more uncertainty when developing and articulating a vision. These scenarios may start a discussion, before a strategic planning process, to sharpen the evaluations and measures necessary to monitor achievements that define the value of the library.
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Scenario thinkers and operational managers do not find it easy to communicate with each other – this paper discusses ways in which scenarios can be used in the line units of the…
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Scenario thinkers and operational managers do not find it easy to communicate with each other – this paper discusses ways in which scenarios can be used in the line units of the organization and the role of strategists and corporate planners in making this bridge. To address these issues, this article is divided into two main sections: (1) making the scenario process manager friendly; and (2) a case study illustrating uses of scenarios by operating managers. It concludes with some implications for corporate planners.
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Charlene Lew, Danielle Meyerowitz and Göran Svensson
The theoretical value of scenario-planning as a strategic tool is well recognized in literature. The purpose of this study is to explore the corporate reasoning of formal and…
Abstract
Purpose
The theoretical value of scenario-planning as a strategic tool is well recognized in literature. The purpose of this study is to explore the corporate reasoning of formal and informal usage (or non-usage) of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making.
Design/methodology/approach
An overview of the relevant literature on scenario-planning as a strategic decision-making tool in the context of complexity and uncertainty is presented, in combination with 15 case studies on executives in the South African context.
Findings
The findings are based on a study in the emerging market context. From the case studies reported, it is evident that industry, organizational and leadership-related factors influence the effective use or non-use of scenario-planning.
Research limitations/implications
Empirical findings are reported, contributing to an assessment framework to revisit the usage of formal and informal scenario-planning in strategic decision-making. Further research to determine which supportive tools and technologies should be used for scenario-planning across multiple contexts is needed.
Practical implications
The study expands upon previous insights into the formal and informal usage (or non-usage) of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making based on an emerging market context.
Originality/value
This study contributes to understanding the value of scenario-planning in complex contexts that require strategic adaptability and offers a hands-on toolkit and shortlist of assessment criteria to conceptualize the organizational reasoning and scholarly framing of formal, informal or non-scenario-planning in strategic decision-making.
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The purpose of this paper is to suggest and recommend an alternative visual technique to collect scenario planning information. This visual technique is known as collage or papier…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to suggest and recommend an alternative visual technique to collect scenario planning information. This visual technique is known as collage or papier collé.
Design/methodology/approach
A case study example of using collage construction to collect scenario planning information is presented.
Findings
Collage construction was deemed well suited to scenario planning as it overcome some of the problems of verbal communication techniques, providing an additional technique that allows the scenario planner to analyse information from multiple angles and sources. Through using multiple techniques, the scenario planner is able to increase “trustworthiness” of the data and analysis and build confidence that the future scenarios are “authentic”, “believable” and “applicable”.
Research limitations/implications
A major limitation of this study is that only one case study is presented. To ensure “trustworthiness” across a variety of industries and cultural contexts, further replication would be needed.
Practical implications
Collage construction can prove to be a valuable additional tool for the scenario planner when verbal communication is limited or problematic.
Originality/value
This research recommends a scenario planning technique that does not necessarily rely on verbal communication skills.
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Celeste Amorim Varum, Carla Melo, António Alvarenga and Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho
This paper seeks to discuss the process and results of a scenario exercise applied to the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industries with a 2020 horizon.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper seeks to discuss the process and results of a scenario exercise applied to the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industries with a 2020 horizon.
Design/methodology/approach
Through an intuitive‐logical process adapted to the specific purposes of the research, four alternative scenarios of the evolution of the industry were developed. The exercise involved three workshops, with the participation of a group of experts, academics, representatives from industry and local government.
Findings
Based on the nature and dynamics of the key forces and trends, the four scenarios identified are: southern experience; global emotions; “sin surprise”; and non‐charming Portugal. In all scenarios there is increased global competition amongst tourist destinations. A desire for authenticity opens the opportunity for Portugal as a tourist destination but it also poses challenges for managers and policy makers. These scenarios are of practical use for managers, policy makers and other practitioners as they provide a framework for the development and assessment of robust strategies and policies, i.e. strategies that will survive several kinds of external development.
Originality/value
The paper contributes to the knowledge of scenario methods in practice and to help policy planners and managers recognize, consider and reflect on uncertainties they are likely to face. The work is also valuable for the international foresight community by discussing the method and addressing some drawbacks of the scenario exercise and recommendations for practice.