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This study aims to assess carbon emissions in urban aged residential buildings in Qingdao, Shandong Province, constructed prior to 2000, and to evaluate retrofitting and rebuilding strategies for potential carbon reduction.

Field investigations and literature reviews were conducted to identify key factors influencing carbon emissions, such as shape coefficient, window-to-wall ratio and envelope structure. A combination of generalization and mathematical statistical methods was used to classify buildings based on construction year, form, structural type and energy-saving goals. Cluster analysis was employed to extract six typical building models.

Results demonstrate that building form complexity positively correlates with carbon emissions per unit area, while longer lifespans reduce emission intensity. Retrofitting exhibits shorter carbon payback periods (1.62–3.92 years) than rebuilding (18.7–49.94 years), indicating superior environmental performance. Pre-1986 buildings are advised for demolition/rebuilding due to limited retrofit benefits. For 1986–1995 buildings, retrofitting is recommended if structurally viable. Post-1996 buildings favor retrofitting over new construction for its shorter payback and lower emissions, enhancing long-term carbon reduction.

This study contributes to the understanding of carbon emissions in urban aged residential buildings by considering various factors and providing specific recommendations for retrofitting and rebuilding strategies tailored to different construction periods. Additionally, it highlights the importance of building form complexity and remaining lifespan in determining carbon emissions, offering insights for sustainable urban development and carbon reduction initiatives.