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Occupant behavior can lead to considerable uncertainties in thermal comfort and air quality within buildings. To tackle this challenge, the use of probabilistic controls to simulate occupant behavior has emerged as a potential solution. This study seeks to analyze the performance of free-running households by examining adaptive thermal comfort and CO2 concentration, both crucial variables in indoor air quality. The investigation of indoor environment dynamics caused by the occupants' behavior, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, became increasingly important. Specifically, it investigates 13 distinct window and shading control strategies in courtyard houses to identify the factors that prompt occupants to interact with shading and windows and determine which control approach effectively minimizes the performance gap.

This paper compares commonly used deterministic and probabilistic control functions and their effects on occupant comfort and indoor air quality in four zones surrounding a courtyard. The zones are differentiated by windows facing the courtyard. The study utilizes the energy management system (EMS) functionality of EnergyPlus within an algorithmic interface called Ladybug Tools. By modifying geometrical dimensions, orientation, window-to-wall ratio (WWR) and window operable fraction, a total of 465 cases are analyzed to identify effective control scenarios. According to the literature, these factors were selected because of their potential significant impact on occupants’ thermal comfort and indoor air quality, in addition to the natural ventilation flow rate. Additionally, the Random Forest algorithm is employed to estimate the individual impact of each control scenario on indoor thermal comfort and air quality metrics, including operative temperature and CO2 concentration.

The findings of the study confirmed that both deterministic and probabilistic window control algorithms were effective in reducing thermal discomfort hours, with reductions of 56.7 and 41.1%, respectively. Deterministic shading controls resulted in a reduction of 18.5%. Implementing the window control strategies led to a significant decrease of 87.8% in indoor CO2 concentration. The sensitivity analysis revealed that outdoor temperature exhibited the strongest positive correlation with indoor operative temperature while showing a negative correlation with indoor CO2 concentration. Furthermore, zone orientation and length were identified as the most influential design variables in achieving the desired performance outcomes.

It’s important to acknowledge the limitations of this study. Firstly, the potential impact of air circulation through the central zone was not considered. Secondly, the investigated control scenarios may have different impacts on air-conditioned buildings, especially when considering energy consumption. Thirdly, the study heavily relied on simulation tools and algorithms, which may limit its real-world applicability. The accuracy of the simulations depends on the quality of the input data and the assumptions made in the models. Fourthly, the case study is hypothetical in nature to be able to compare different control scenarios and their implications. Lastly, the comparative analysis was limited to a specific climate, which may restrict the generalizability of the findings in different climates.

Occupant behavior represents a significant source of uncertainty, particularly during the early stages of design. This study aims to offer a comparative analysis of various deterministic and probabilistic control scenarios that are based on occupant behavior. The study evaluates the effectiveness and validity of these proposed control scenarios, providing valuable insights for design decision-making.