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Anne Marchais-Roubelat and Fabrice Roubelat
– This paper aims to introduce movements in scenario methodology, to design a moving strategic foresight approach.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to introduce movements in scenario methodology, to design a moving strategic foresight approach.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors firstly question the limits of plausibility from an ontological and epistemological perspective to expand scenarios beyond the boundaries of end-states. To incorporate ongoing changes in scenario methodology, the authors propose to explore scenario transformations within the conceptual framework of action-based scenarios.
Findings
The authors discuss consequences of playing strategies within ongoing scenarios, as well as the research directions about moving scales, stakeholders’ dominance and time issues.
Originality/value
The paper proposes a method to distort and transform scenarios. The authors suggest supplementing strategic foresight in iterative processes to challenge the boundaries of plausible futures, bridging the gap between theoretical ever-changing processes and the moving rhythms of actions.
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In a recent issue of Futuribles, authors from the European Commission’s Forward Studies Unit outlined five scenarios for Europe 2010. The scenarios were constructed using the…
Abstract
In a recent issue of Futuribles, authors from the European Commission’s Forward Studies Unit outlined five scenarios for Europe 2010. The scenarios were constructed using the so‐called “shaping actors, shaping factors” method, claimed by the authors as specific to their unit. In this article, Michel Godet reacts to that claim and makes two fundamental criticisms of their methodology.