Odilon José de Oliveira Neto and Fabio Gallo Garcia
This paper investigates the efficiency of the futures market for Brazilian live cattle to predict prices in the spot market of Argentinian steers. The lack of derivatives related…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper investigates the efficiency of the futures market for Brazilian live cattle to predict prices in the spot market of Argentinian steers. The lack of derivatives related to the beef market in the futures exchange in Argentina was the main factor behind the decision to analyse the efficiency of the Brazilian live cattle futures as a predictor of spot prices of Argentinian steers.
Design/methodology/approach
We opted to employ the efficient markets hypothesis to approach the question. The hypothesis that futures prices are non‐biased predictors of spot prices is considered to be a true proposition only if the efficient markets hypothesis is not rejected. In methodological terms, the efficiency of the futures market for Brazilian live cattle relative to the spot market of Argentinian steers was verified using the Johansen co‐integration test. A vector error correction model – which enables verification of the question of bias in the prediction of prices, was used to estimate the long‐term equilibrium between spot and futures prices.
Findings/originality/value
The results provided no evidence of bias in the prediction of prices and found the predictive efficiency of the Brazilian live cattle futures market relative to the spot market of Argentinians steers to be approximately 80 per cent. Thus, the future prices of Brazilian live cattle can expressly assist participants in the Argentinian beef production chain to predict the spot prices of steers.
Purpose
Esse trabalho verifica a eficiência do mercado futuro do boi gordo brasileiro em relação ao mercado a vista dos novilhos argentinos. A ausência de derivativos relacionados ao mercado da carne bovina em bolsa de futuros na Argentina foi o principal aspecto motivador da análise da eficiência do mercado futuro do boi gordo brasileiro como preditordos preços a vista dos novilhos argentinos.
Design/methodology/approach
Assim sendo, optou‐se por uma abordagem à luz da teoria da hipótese dos mercados eficientes. A hipótese de que os preços futuros são preditores não viesados dos preços a vista é tida como uma proposição verdadeira somente se a hipótese de eficiência de mercado não for rejeitada. No contexto metodológico, a eficiência do mercado futuro do boi gordo brasileiro em relação ao mercado a vista dos novilhos argentinos foi verificada a partir do teste de cointegração de Johansen, enquanto que o equilíbrio no longo prazo entre os preços a vista e futuros, que possibilita a verificação da questão do viés na predição dos preços, foi estimado por um modelo vetorial de correção de erro.
Findings/Originality/value
Os resultados evidenciaram o não viés na predição dos preços e a eficiência do mercado futuro do boi gordo brasileiro em relação ao mercado a vista dos novilhos argentinos de aproximadamente 80%. Logo, os preços futuros do boi gordo brasileiro podem auxiliar de maneira expressiva os agentes da cadeia produtiva da carne bovina argentina na predição dos preços a vista dos novilhos.
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Siti Khadijah Zainal Badri, Wai Meng Yap and Hazel Melanie Ramos
The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between gratitude and workplace friendship with affective well-being (AWB) at work amongst millennial employees…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between gratitude and workplace friendship with affective well-being (AWB) at work amongst millennial employees. Specifically, it details the mediating effect of workplace friendship in explaining the linkages between gratitude and AWB at work.
Design/methodology/approach
This study used a sample of 272 millennial workers in this study. A survey invitation was sent out to all of the respondents through email. A 20-item job-related AWB (Van Katwyk et al., 2000) scale was used to measure AWB. Workplace friendship was measured using six-items of the workplace friendship scale (Nielsen et al., 2000) and gratitude was measured using McCullough et al.’s (2002) six-item gratitude questionnaire (GQ-6).
Findings
The study found that gratitude and workplace friendship enhanced workplace AWB among millennial workers. Workplace friendship functioned as a mediator, which delivered the effect from gratitude towards workplace AWB. Gratitude was found to positively predict workplace friendship and subsequently workplace friendship positively predicted workplace AWB.
Practical implications
Nurturing positive feelings at work through excellent psychosocial resources and healthy work friendships would improve millennial workers well-being. Henceforth, encouraging millennial employees to cultivate workplace friendships, can help the manager to enhance millennial employees’ feeling of belongingness, and thus, promote better AWB.
Originality/value
Investment on employee’s human capital and values can be valuable resources to increase millennial employees’ performance at work. Millennial workers are a unique generation that put emphasis on the subjective experience. Hence, capitalising on their subjective experience can be one of the keys to better increase their well-being and performance at work.
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This paper aims to analyse the role of central bank digital currency (CBDC) in bank earnings management and focus on how CBDC activity might influence banks to engage in accrual…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to analyse the role of central bank digital currency (CBDC) in bank earnings management and focus on how CBDC activity might influence banks to engage in accrual earnings management using loan loss provisions (LLPs) and the implications for earnings quality.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper used conceptual discourse analysis to explain the role of CBDC in bank earnings management.
Findings
Banks will use accruals, such as LLPs, to manage earnings when CBDC-induced bank disintermediation leads to a reduction in bank deposits, a reduction in bank lending and a likely reduction in reported earnings. Bank managers will mitigate the reduction in reported earnings by lowering discretionary LLPs to increase reported earnings.
Originality/value
The recent emergence of CBDC in the digital currency universe has led to increased research interest on the role of CBDC in corporations and society. This study contributes to the literature by focusing on banks, and examining the effect of CBDC on bank earnings management.
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Diego Silveira Pacheco de Oliveira and Gabriel Caldas Montes
Given the importance of credit rating agencies’ (CRAs) assessment in affecting international financial markets, it is useful for policymakers and investors to be able to forecast…
Abstract
Purpose
Given the importance of credit rating agencies’ (CRAs) assessment in affecting international financial markets, it is useful for policymakers and investors to be able to forecast it properly. Therefore, this study aims to forecast sovereign risk perception of the main agencies related to Brazilian bonds through the application of different machine learning (ML) techniques and evaluate their predictive accuracy in order to find out which one is best for this task.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on monthly data from January 1996 to November 2018, we perform different forecast analyses using the K-Nearest Neighbors, the Gradient Boosted Random Trees and the Multilayer Perceptron methods.
Findings
The results of this study suggest the Multilayer Perceptron technique is the most reliable one. Its predictive accuracy is relatively high if compared to the other two methods. Its forecast errors are the lowest in both the out-of-sample and in-sample forecasts’ exercises. These results hold if we consider the CRAs classification structure as linear or logarithmic. Moreover, its forecast errors are not statistically associated with periods of changes in CRAs’ opinion of any sort.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to evaluate the performance of ML methods in the task of predicting sovereign credit news, including not only the sovereign ratings but also the outlook and credit watch status. In addition, the authors investigate whether the forecasts errors are statistically associated with periods of changes in sovereign risk perception.