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The effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on the construction industry were formidable and far-reaching, as the construction sector is a major contributor to the gross domestic product (GDP), which balances various sectors of the global economy, and to infrastructure growth, which is a primary gauge of a nation’s advancement. The outbreak led to workforce disruptions, worker deficits, dwindling efficiency, elongated project durations, and scarce opportunities for training and mentorship, and despite endeavors to mitigate these challenges, construction timelines experienced significant interruptions. Various researchers have pinpointed contributing elements, but few have constructed a predictive model to gauge the degree of impact.

Therefore, this research intends to fill by introducing an ordinal logistic regression method to forecast the impacts of a pandemic or other similar type of crisis. To achieve this, an online survey was developed and distributed to collect the perceptions of the construction engineers and managers about the diverse contributors to the exceeding project timelines during the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak.

Findings from this study indicate that financial liquidity, modifications to original plans, delays in securing governmental clearances, and a shortage of competent labor have medium-to-high levels of impact on project schedules.

This study will furnish decision-makers with crucial knowledge that will give them the tools to refine their strategies and judiciously allocate resources to overcome the unique hurdles encountered by various construction segments and will enhance the industry's capability to respond more effectively to challenges inherent in this type of crisis.

The building sector is vital to a nation’s economy, as it has a major influence on economic activity and growth, job creations and the advancement of infrastructure. Intricate challenges that are inherent in crises such as the COVID-19 outbreak lead to material scarcities, project delays, labor shortages, escalated expenses, funding challenges, regulatory obstacles and dwindling investment funds, all of which culminate in costs that are in excess of those budgeted. While numerous studies have explored the ramifications of COVID-19 on project budgets, there is little, if any, data available on forecasting the magnitude of this impact.

This investigation seeks to bridge this knowledge deficiency by devising a predictive tool grounded in an ordinal logistic regression method. An online survey was designed and disseminated to gauge the views of construction field experts about the diverse contributors to excessive costs during the viral outbreak, and a predictive tool, crafted from the survey participants’ feedback.

Findings showed that smaller-scale enterprises and contractor-centric establishments faced greater adversities than medium-to-large ones and consultancy-or-owner-type entities.

The insights from this research shed light on the amplified risk of higher project costs amid health crises or analogous events, underlining the imperative need for fortified risk management approaches to bolster project outcomes. By factoring in demographics, this research offers policymakers a refined lens through which to customize interventions and promote balanced and enduring advancement in the construction industry.