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Article
Publication date: 18 July 2008

Elli Pagourtzi, Spyros Makridakis, Vassilis Assimakopoulos and Akrivi Litsa

The main scope of the paper is to demonstrate the capabilities of PYTHIA forecasting platform, to compare time series forecasting techniques, which were used to forecast mortgage…

Abstract

Purpose

The main scope of the paper is to demonstrate the capabilities of PYTHIA forecasting platform, to compare time series forecasting techniques, which were used to forecast mortgage loans in UK, and to show how PYTHIA can be useful for a bank.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper outlines the methods used to forecast the time series data, which are included in PYTHIA. Theta, the time‐series used to forecast average mortgage loan prices, were grouped in: all buyers – average loan prices in UK; first‐time buyers – average loan prices in UK; and home‐movers – average loan prices in UK. The case of all buyers – average loan prices in UK, was presented in detail.

Findings

After the comparison of the methods, the best forecasts are produced by WINTERS and this is maybe due to the fact that there is seasonality in the data. The Theta method comes next in the row and generally produces good forecasts with small mean absolute percentage errors. In order to tell with grater certainty which method produces the most accurate forecasts we could compare the rest error statistics provided by PYTHIA too.

Originality/value

The paper presents the PYTHIA forecasting platform and shows how it can be used by the managers of a Bank to forecast mortgage loan values. PYTHIA can provide the forecasts required by practically all business situations demanding accurate predictions. It is designed and developed with the purpose of making the task of managerial forecasting straightforward, user‐friendly and practical. It incorporates a lot of knowledge and experience in the field of forecasting, modeling and monitoring while fully utilizing new capabilities of computers and software.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 1 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 January 2006

Elli Pagourtzi, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos and Vassilios Assimakopoulos

Proposes a new real estate valuation methodology and presents the architecture for a decision support system for real estate analysis based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS…

2167

Abstract

Purpose

Proposes a new real estate valuation methodology and presents the architecture for a decision support system for real estate analysis based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques integrated with fuzzy theory and spatial analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed information system architecture/problem‐solving methodology uses GIS technology integrated with two approaches: fuzzy logic and spatial analysis. The steps required in the proposed methodology are: database design and implementation; criteria and rules; system design; and implementation. The components/modules included in the proposed methodology are: requirement and definition analysis; data production; topology; integrated database; visualization; variables; quantification; valuation; and implementation.

Findings

The applicability of the system is evaluated via a case study in estimation of house sale prices. The proposed system/methodology was used in order to valuate property values in one municipality of Attica in Greece. The estimation, market analysis, forecasting and management of property values are of great importance and a prerequisite for real estate development.

Originality/value

The proposed methodology is innovative, easy to implement and has a vast theoretical background. Following the methodology/architecture, a prototype information system is presented in order to move from theory to practice. The value of the paper is the combination of new technology assessments and GIS tools, integrated with fuzzy theory and spatial analysis.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 24 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 2003

Elli Pagourtzi, Vassilis Assimakopoulos, Thomas Hatzichristos and Nick French

The valuation of real estate is a central tenet for all businesses. Land and property are factors of production and, as with any other asset, the value of the land flows from the…

21661

Abstract

The valuation of real estate is a central tenet for all businesses. Land and property are factors of production and, as with any other asset, the value of the land flows from the use to which it is put, and that in turn is dependent upon the demand (and supply) for the product that is produced. Valuation, in its simplest form, is the determination of the amount for which the property will transact on a particular date. However, there is a wide range of purposes for which valuations are required. These range from valuations for purchase and sale, transfer, tax assessment, expropriation, inheritance or estate settlement, investment and financing. The objective of the paper is to provide a brief overview of the methods used in real estate valuation. Valuation methods can be grouped as traditional and advanced. The traditional methods are regression models, comparable, cost, income, profit and contractor’s method. The advanced methods are ANNs, hedonic pricing method, spatial analysis methods, fuzzy logic and ARIMA models.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 21 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 18 July 2008

Nick French

301

Abstract

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 1 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Content available
Article
Publication date: 1 January 2006

Éamonn D’Arcy

418

Abstract

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 24 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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