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The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of research and innovation futures, sketch the landscape of recent findings in this field with a focus on new ways of doing and organizing knowledge creation and position the contributions to this special issue within that landscape.

This paper includes a review of literature on the embedding of research and innovation in society, outlines the main domains of current drivers of change and summarises the contributions to the special issue.

Recent controversies about the future of research and innovation draw on a long-standing trajectory of debate about the role of science, technology and innovation in society, and the balance between autonomy in striving for scientific excellence on the one hand and the quest for social and economic relevance on the other. Six major domains of current and expected future changes in research and innovation are identified, and serve as the backdrop for positioning the more specific contributions to this special issue.

The main value of this contribution is to provide a condensed and original look at emerging directions of change in research and innovation practices and their organisational and institutional embedding in society.

This paper aims to present a set of strategic options for Research and Innovation (R&I) stakeholders in the light of new and emerging ways of organising and performing research.

The paper first reviews the evolution of the R&I landscape and identifies the most influential stakeholders engaged in R&I. In the light of the scenarios developed for the year 2030, a set of strategic options are identified and assessed for each stakeholder group.

R&I systems are now more complex than 50 years ago and will be even more in the future. Radical changes are expected in terms of the ways research is funded, organised and carried out. Some of these transformations are captured by the scenarios developed. The analysis of scenarios indicated that their feasibility and desirability differ across different sectors of industry, and research areas within the research landscape.

Scenarios and strategies presented in the paper bring new considerations on the way research activities are practiced. Further research is considered to be useful on the new modes of research and implications for academia, industry, society and policy makers.

The discussion around the responses of different stakeholders vis-à-vis specific scenarios about the future in R&I practices and organisation gives a practical view about how to deal with associated emerging trends and issues.

Society is a crucial stakeholder of all R&I activities. The transformative scenarios suggest that society will not only be playing a reactive role on the demand side but also more proactive role on the supply side in the decades to come.

The paper is based on work undertaken within the Research and Innovation (RIF) 2030 project. As R&I activities will be important for the development and competitiveness of the EU and its member states, the work presented here is considered to be of value by highlighting how to create more resilient strategies in a fast-changing R&I landscape.

The present paper aims to explore the potential of joint foresight exercises in serving joint programming, a concept highlighted in furthering the creation of the European Research Area (ERA).

The paper starts with setting the context, i.e. the ERA concept, and the importance of joint programming. It then explores the potential of joint foresight in serving joint programming. This is done by analysing the current situation of trans‐national foresight based on the EFMN pool of foresight exercises. Then, possible modes and issues of trans‐national foresight collaboration, as well as perceived benefits and challenges, are also examined in setting a framework for foresight collaboration.

Joint foresight is not carried out in a fully fledged mode, yet but both interest and potential is high. A framework for foresight collaboration can already be set. EFMN is a valuable source of information and also holds a central, synergistic and complementary role in relation to other sources in defining the way to go forward in joint foresight.

The framework for foresight collaboration can form the basis for strategic discussions across EU member states as well as for further research to clarify and enrich understanding of the governing conditions and variables.

The paper proves that EFMN is both a significant pool of information and holds a complementary role in defining the way forward in supporting joint programming under the ERA. The foresight collaboration framework first attempted here is also worth exploiting further.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emergence, operation and features of the time banks that were created during the recent financial crisis in Greece as grass-roots initiatives of different communities, and to examine their relation to the concept of “co-production” and possible relevance to foresight. Time banks are particularly interesting for the future of services: they address all sorts of services while the time-bank “value” of these different types of services does not necessarily reflect their actual value in the free market; impacts may spread from the mere coverage of people’s needs, to increased social capital and community empowerment; and some scholars consider them as flexible forms of co-production, or even as enablers of wider social change. The purpose of the paper is to examine the emergence, and features of the time banks created during the recent financial crisis in Greece as grass-roots initiatives.

Primary information and data were gathered through eight extensive face-to-face interviews with key members of the four time banks based on a semi-structured questionnaire. The methodology also included desk research and review of the information included in time banks’ websites. The selection of these four time banks was based on the fact that they are the most active ones in Athens, which is the capital of the country gathering around 40 per cent of the Greek population and presenting the severest consequences of the financial crises in terms of unemployment, poverty, shutdown of businesses, share of people with no insurance, etc.

Based on a specific analytical framework summarising the available literature, the Greek time banks are compared with each other but also in relation to the findings in the literature, where some interesting differences emerge. The paper also explores the role that foresight can plan in the development of alternative initiatives like time banks. The interesting conclusion is that foresight can help time banks as much as time banks can help foresight in upgrading its processes to deal with challenges of the twenty-first century.

The research focuses on the four most active time banks in Athens. While this selection is justified, future research would be good to include all the time banks in Greece.

The paper explores how time banks in Greece emerged as well as how they can further develop. This is of direct relevance to society as time banks are by default a community initiative.

Time banks in Greece have not been previously studied. Second, time banks in general were never linked to approaches like foresight. This becomes increasingly important in examining possible approaches toward more sustainable and resilient societies.

This paper aims to argue that innovation system foresight (ISF) can significantly contribute to the third mission of universities by creating an active dialogue between universities, industry and society.

This paper’s approach is conceptual. The authors analyse the third mission and relevant literature on innovation systems and foresight to explain how and why foresight contributes to the third mission.

The authors propose that foresight contributes to the third mission of universities, particularly to the research and development and innovation dimensions through the development of joint understanding of the agendas and future needs of stakeholders. In addition, foresight enables education to be designed to address identified needs.

The findings are both conceptual and exploratory in nature. Thus, the argument needs further examination through a broader study on foresight in the university–industry context and/or longitudinal research on the outcomes and impact of foresight in this context.

The findings highlight the importance of understanding the systemic nature of innovation and its role in economic development. Universities must understand their role within the larger innovation system to fulfil the potential of economic development and by extension, their third mission.

The paper outlines a novel approach of using ISF to promote university–industry partnerships and the growth of innovation systems. The paper also contributes to the discussion of the third mission by outlining that mission in practical terms.

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the contribution of the EFMN Issue Analysis to the identification of key emerging science and technology issues of high relevance for European policies, as well as to the development of future European science and technology policy priorities. As such, it describes the experience of the past three EFMN Issue Analyses (2005 to 2007), which focused on “Cognitive Science” (2005), “Healthy Ageing” (2006) and “Emerging Knowledge‐based Economy and Society” (2007).

The annual EFMN Issue Analysis aims at selecting and analysing one key emerging science and technology issue that is relevant for European Union policies. The selection is based on the screening and analysis of recent international foresights along a set of predefined criteria.

The paper highlights future socio‐economic perspectives and S&T developments coming along with the topics “Cognitive Science”, “Healthy Ageing” and “Emerging Knowledge‐based Economy and Society”, as well as policy recommendations as emerged from the respective expert workshop discussions. The paper also reflects on the methodology used, and experience of, and the lessons learned from the last three Issue Analyses.

This paper is of interest for foresight practitioners and policy‐makers at European level, as well as at national or regional level in European Member States.

The paper highlights the role of the EFMN Issue Analysis in providing the basis for well‐informed (science and technology) policy‐making.

The purpose of this paper is to address a central question in foresight exercises: how to communicate derived results?

By drawing on an empirical study, this paper presents a framework for using visualizations in foresight and illustrates its application by referring to a case study.

The argument is made that by using a dimensional framework, the effects of visualization can be leveraged for communicating foresight results and creating stronger buy-in.

Although visualizations appear to be a central means of communication and engagement, little is known in the context of foresight on the functions and dimension of visualizations.

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate and discuss how stakeholder assessment of scenarios can be used to trigger a structured and, therefore, more efficient debate amongst stakeholders about future options for achieving a more eco-efficient transport system in Europe. Particularly, it wants to explore the extent to which a distinction between the desirability and the feasibility of a potential future development can render such debates more rational and transparent.

The paper is based on a project on eco-efficient transport for the Science and Technology Option Assessment panel of the European Parliament (STOA). Key elements of the methods used in the STOA project were easily understandable scenarios and a survey of the main assumptions underlying the scenarios. Both the scenarios and the survey were used in a stakeholder workshop to assess the desirability and the feasibility of approaches towards establishing a more eco-efficient transport system.

The methodological approach proved helpful for collecting a large amount of valuable information in a relative short time. In particular, the distinction between desirability and feasibility was useful in mapping out the patterns of opinion amongst stakeholders and for understanding where there is common ground, where there are differences and what the reasons behind these differences are. It helped in identifying promising pathways towards more eco-efficient transport futures and in getting a better understanding of barriers and of the ways to overcome them.

The approach served as the basis for having a well-structured, rational and, thus, efficient debate. In practice, this factor is relevant because stakeholder involvement is crucial when it comes to transitions of socio-technical systems, such as the transport system. Keeping stakeholders motivated to take part in such participatory processes is only possible, however, if they perceive that these processes are well-structured and, therefore, efficient.

In contrast to many other scenario-based approaches, the scenarios in this project were understood as an input to the discussion and not as the result of a process. Furthermore, not only the results but also the underlying assumptions of the scenarios were explicitly made a topic for assessment. The differentiation between desirability and feasibility was used as a guiding dimension for the assessment.

Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse.

In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios.

The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research.

The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.