Vaishali Dhiman and Manpreet Arora
Foresight J's journey started in 1999, and in 2022, it marked the conclusion of its 24 years of publication. This paper aims to provide an overall overview of important research…
Abstract
Purpose
Foresight J's journey started in 1999, and in 2022, it marked the conclusion of its 24 years of publication. This paper aims to provide an overall overview of important research trends published in Foresight J between 1999 and 2022 by conducting a quantitative analysis of the journal’s literature. The overarching goal is to provide valuable insights into the dynamics of scholarly communication, aiding researchers, institutions and policymakers in assessing the significance and influence of academic work, guiding future research directions and academic evaluation.
Design/methodology/approach
The two bibliometrics methodologies that make up the methodology of this article are scientific mapping and performance analysis. Authors have explained the development and composition of the Foresight J using these methods. The SCOPUS database is being used in current research to analyse several dimensions, such as the evolution of publications by year, the most cited papers, core authors and researchers, leading countries and prolific institutions. Moreover, the conceptual structure, scope, burst detection and co-occurrence analysis of the journal are mapped using network visualization software such as VOSviewer, CiteSpace and RStudio.
Findings
With a strong track record of output over the years, Foresight J has continued to develop in terms of publications. It is determined that “Saritas” is the author with the greatest overall impact. However, according to SCOPUS bibliometric data, “Blackman” and “Richardson” are the authors with the greatest relevance in terms of the quantity of articles. In addition, it becomes apparent that the USA, Australia and the UK are very productive nations in terms of publications. The most popular fields of the journal have always been forecasting, foresight, scenario planning, strategic planning, decision-making, technology and sustainable development. These are also the author keywords that appear the most frequently. In contrast, new study themes in the Foresight J include digital technologies, innovation, sustainability, blockchain, artificial intelligence and sustainability.
Research limitations/implications
Several noteworthy research implications are provided by the bibliometric study of Foresight J. “Saritas” is the author with the most overall impact, indicating that the precise contributions and influence of this researcher in the fields of forecasting, foresight and related fields. Given that “Blackman” and “Richardson” are well-known writers, it is also critical to examine the scope and complexity of their contributions to potentially identify recurring themes or patterns in their writing. The geographic productivity results, which show that the USA, Australia and the UK are the top three countries for Foresight J publications, may encourage more research into regional differences, patterns of collaboration and the worldwide distribution of research endeavours in the context of forecasting and foresight. Popular fields including scenario planning, forecasting, foresight and sustainable development are consistent, indicating persistent research interests. Examining the causes of these subjects’ ongoing relevance can reveal information about the consistency and development of scholarly interests over time.
Practical implications
Foresight J’s bibliometric analysis has real-world applications for many stakeholders. It helps editors and publishers make strategic decisions about outreach and content by providing insights regarding the journal’s influence. Assessing organizational and author productivity helps institutions allocate resources more effectively. Policymakers acquire an instrument to evaluate research patterns and distribute funds efficiently. In general, bibliometric study of a journal helps decisionmakers in academic publishing make well-informed choices that maximize the potential of options for authors, editors, institutions and policymakers.
Social implications
The societal ramifications of bibliometrically analysing Foresight J from 1999 and 2022 are substantial. This analysis highlights, over the past 24 years, research trends, technological developments and societal priorities have changed by methodically looking through the journal’s articles. Gaining knowledge about the academic environment covered by the journal can help raise public awareness of important topics and promote critical thinking. In addition, the analysis can support evidence-based decision-making by alerting decision makers to the influential research that was published in Foresight J. This could have an impact on the course of policies pertaining to innovation, technology and societal development.
Originality/value
This study presents a first comprehensive article that provides a general overview of the main trends and patterns of the research over the Foresight J’s history since its inception. Also, the paper will help the scientific community to know the value and impact of Foresight J.
Effie Amanatidou, Ozcan Saritas and Denis Loveridge
This paper aims to present a set of strategic options for Research and Innovation (R&I) stakeholders in the light of new and emerging ways of organising and performing research…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to present a set of strategic options for Research and Innovation (R&I) stakeholders in the light of new and emerging ways of organising and performing research.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper first reviews the evolution of the R&I landscape and identifies the most influential stakeholders engaged in R&I. In the light of the scenarios developed for the year 2030, a set of strategic options are identified and assessed for each stakeholder group.
Findings
R&I systems are now more complex than 50 years ago and will be even more in the future. Radical changes are expected in terms of the ways research is funded, organised and carried out. Some of these transformations are captured by the scenarios developed. The analysis of scenarios indicated that their feasibility and desirability differ across different sectors of industry, and research areas within the research landscape.
Research limitations/implications
Scenarios and strategies presented in the paper bring new considerations on the way research activities are practiced. Further research is considered to be useful on the new modes of research and implications for academia, industry, society and policy makers.
Practical implications
The discussion around the responses of different stakeholders vis-à-vis specific scenarios about the future in R&I practices and organisation gives a practical view about how to deal with associated emerging trends and issues.
Social implications
Society is a crucial stakeholder of all R&I activities. The transformative scenarios suggest that society will not only be playing a reactive role on the demand side but also more proactive role on the supply side in the decades to come.
Originality/value
The paper is based on work undertaken within the Research and Innovation (RIF) 2030 project. As R&I activities will be important for the development and competitiveness of the EU and its member states, the work presented here is considered to be of value by highlighting how to create more resilient strategies in a fast-changing R&I landscape.
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Keywords
Serhat Burmaoglu, Ozcan Saritas and Harun Sesen
The purpose of this study is to discuss the possibility of setting up a platform for inclusive policymaking process drawing upon the blockchain concept. The study posits that…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to discuss the possibility of setting up a platform for inclusive policymaking process drawing upon the blockchain concept. The study posits that blockchain also has great potentials in non-financial applications, such as in policymaking, where there is a need for bottom-up approaches with more decentralized, distributed and evidence-based processes.
Design/methodology/approach
The study makes use of an analogy-based creative design methodology. The design science paradigm has its roots in engineering and the sciences of the artificial (Simon, 1996). As a problem-solving paradigm for solving complex engineering issues, design science seeks to create innovations that define the ideas, practices, technical capabilities and products through which the analysis, design, implementation and use of information systems can be effectively and efficiently accomplished. In the present study, the policy development theories and the logic of blockchain are synthesized to prepare a task model for the “IdeaChain” concept as a platform for creating, sharing and validating novel ideas as well as converting them into policies or new ventures through the funding mechanisms.
Findings
The IdeaChain concept is designed and demonstrated through its use in the domain of science, technology and innovation (STI) policy, which can be extended to cover all innovative activities linking the whole process from their emergence, funding, development, implementation and impact upon policy.
Originality/value
Blockchain is mostly discussed in literature with its impact on financial sector. IdeaChain is the first attempt to explore the potentials of blockchain in STI policymaking.
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David Sarpong, Martin Nils Amstéus and Joseph Amankwah-Amoah
Sarah Lai-Yin Cheah, Yinping Yang and Ozcan Saritas
This paper aims to discuss a foresight study conducted in Singapore’s national R&D agency to help science and technology decision makers identify key capability areas of R&D…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to discuss a foresight study conducted in Singapore’s national R&D agency to help science and technology decision makers identify key capability areas of R&D investment to support the manufacturing industry’s growth in the country and the region.
Design/methodology/approach
Using horizon scanning, scenario analysis and expert opinion, nine capabilities are identified as core areas to be developed to support the country’s future growth of product-service systems.
Findings
The results of a Delphi survey involving 30 industry and academic thought leaders recommend priorities of these capabilities. This paper concludes with a discussion of the study implications for theory, research and practice in the domain of servitisation and product-service systems.
Research limitations/implications
The foresight study presented here on the future of servitisation in Singapore demonstrates one of the first fully fledged applications of foresight in constructing a coherent vision of future product-service system markets. In this study, the authors applied systemic foresight methodology (SFM) comprising the first six phases: initiation (scoping), intelligence (scanning), imagination (scenarios), integration (priorities), interpretation (strategies) and implementation (action).For future research, an ideal step would be to proceed with the final phase of the SFM, impact, to develop indicators for servitisation and to monitor and evaluate the transition process.
Practical implications
Manufacturing and services are no longer distinct concepts with a clear divide. Manufacturing firms not only become more service dependent but also produce and provide services for their consumers. This transformation towards servitisation implies fundamental re-organisation of the production and management practices. Furthermore, through new business models, new and loyal customers will be gained, which will in turn bring additional income, while making the companies less prone to economic and business fluctuations.
Social implications
The results of this study have practical implications for policymakers of public and private sectors that are interested in playing a key role in future product-service system innovation. These have implications for developing the human and intellectual capital that are required for supporting the future innovation. Institutes of higher learning and vocational institutes should also consider incorporating new curricula and modules to build the capabilities for knowledge creation and transfer.
Originality/value
The findings of the present study on strategic growth areas and relevant critical capabilities provide new directions for research in the field of servitisation. Among the nine capabilities identified, the top three were advanced customer intelligence capability, socio-physical service quality, traceability and maintainability and integrated strategic decision-making. From the results, it is apparent that advanced customer intelligence capability is both an area of importance to Singapore and the world.
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Ozcan Saritas and Liliana N. Proskuryakova
This paper focuses on the long-term situation with water resources, and water sector in particular, analyzed through a Foresight study. The authors attribute particular attention…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper focuses on the long-term situation with water resources, and water sector in particular, analyzed through a Foresight study. The authors attribute particular attention to implication for Russia, which is relatively better positioned regarding the availability of water resources. However, the country still faces challenges related to the protection of water resources, drinking water supply, water networks, consumption patterns, water discharge, treatment and re-use. The present study aims at identification and analysis of trends, factors and uncertainties in water supply, demand, use and re-use with a particular focus on sustainability of water systems; water use by households and industry; and new water services and products.
Design/methodology/approach
Research methodology in this paper involves a horizon scanning exercise for the identification of the key trends, factors and uncertainties along with the identification of weak signals of future emerging trends and wild cards in the form of future surprises, shocks and other unexpected events that may disrupt the preservation of water resources and the future of the water sector. Trends characterize broad parameters for shifts in attitudes, climate, policies and business focus over periods of several years that usually have global reach. These are usually experienced by everyone and often in similar contexts. Trends may represent threats, opportunities or a mixture of them, identified through underlying processes, possible events and other future developments.
Findings
A key systemic restriction of water use for the next decades both globally and in Russia relates to competition between agriculture, energy, manufacturing and household water use. Given that the amount of renewable water resources is almost fixed and even decreases because of pollution, circular economy solutions for water use will be required. Implications of the global trends identified in the study for Russia are dependent on the overall situation with water resources in the country. Russia has sufficient water supply: the overall intake of water for drinking and economic purposes in Russia amounts to 3 per cent of the total water resources, two-thirds of which are discarded back to water bodies. At the same time, there are substantial problems associated with the extremely uneven distribution of water resources across the country, as well as high “water intensity” of the Russian GDP. The Russian water sector is currently not very attractive for investors. Moreover, it has significantly less lobbying opportunities than other infrastructure sectors, and this complicates its institutional and financial positions. Meanwhile, there have been some positive changes with regard to activities with a short pay-off period.
Originality/value
The paper offers one of the first studies on the future of Russian water resources with a focus on the water supply and sanitation sector. A comprehensive approach to trends identification (not found in other studies on Russian water resources) allowed authors to identify social, technological, environmental, economic, policy and value-related global trends and uncertainties. Moreover, implications of these trends and uncertainties, as well as Russia-specific trends, were outlined.
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Susana Elena‐Pérez, Ozcan Saritas, Katja Pook and Campbell Warden
This paper aims to explore the possibilities of combining foresight techniques and intellectual capital management, as two approaches of participatory strategic management, in…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to explore the possibilities of combining foresight techniques and intellectual capital management, as two approaches of participatory strategic management, in higher education institutions. The objective is to generate concrete benefits for prospective strategic management in the academic sector. It also aims to focus on how it may be possible for universities to address the challenges of major change management programmes by implementing foresight and intellectual capital management models.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper reviews recent literature both on conceptual issues and experiences in relation to foresight and intellectual capital. The paper presents an ongoing project focused on the development of a vision for the future of the higher education system in Romania and a frame to differentiate Romanian universities.
Findings
A proposal of an integrated use of foresight and intellectual capital management for universities is suggested. The case study presented illustrates how foresight provides an excellent approach to address the question of how to develop a shared vision of the future and jointly define a strategy to best adapt an organization to the new context, and intellectual capital management models play a role in strategic management, resource allocation and monitoring of objectives and organization performance.
Practical implications
The issues addressed in the paper could provide the starting point for better integration of strategic management in higher education institutions.
Originality/value
The paper explores two concepts closely related but that have not been analysed together: the relationship between Intellectual capital approaches and foresight.