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In 1917, the American Locomotive and Baldwin Locomotive companies were among the 100 largest corporations in America. This gave them all the advantages associated with companies that dominate their industries: scale, experience, established channels of distribution, solid reputations, and access to capital. Yet within 30 years, the combined market share of these two companies fell from nearly 100 to below 50 percent. Within 52 years, both were out of the locomotive business altogether, and neither company survives today.

We read case studies to train ourselves to make better business decisions. But some cases, like this one, aren't a model for decision analysis. The Wind Technology story recounts the rather commonplace process of developing a business plan based on, if you'll pardon the pun, pretty thin air. (We deliberately chose a low‐tech case so the business issues wouldn't be overshadowed by the complexities of a high‐tech process.) But don't be condescending when you critique the Wind Technology business plan. Who among us hasn't fallen prey—like its management—to “The Better Mouse Trap” school of marketing syndrome? The symptoms: You become infatuated with a product idea and write a ten‐year P&L statement before you talk to 100 potential customers. And there's another trap to this case. It's the “I can't make a decision because I don't have all the facts” cop out. In the real world you never have all the facts, the ducks are never aligned, and the winds of business are fickle. As a treat for readers who “solve” the Wind Technology case on their own, we asked two experts to let us publish their commentaries as a coda. Compare your analysis with theirs and write us a letter if you think your insights are worth sharing with your fellow managers.