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This paper examines the price setting behaviour over time and space in the Athens residential market. In periods of house price inflation asking prices are often based upon the last observed highest selling price achieved for a similar property in the same micro-location. However, in a falling market, prices may be rigid downwards and less sensitive to the most recent transaction prices, weakening spatial effects. Furthermore, the paper considers whether future price expectations affect price setting behaviour.

The paper employs a dataset of approximately 24,500 property values from 2007 until 2014 in Athens incorporating characteristics and locational variables. The authors begin by estimating a baseline hedonic price model using property characteristics, neighbourhood amenities and location effects. Following this, a spatio-temporal autoregressive (STAR) model is estimated. Running separate models, the authors account for spatial dependence from historic valuations, contemporaneous peer effects and expectations effects.

The initial STAR model shows significant spatial and temporal effects, the former remaining important in a falling market contrasting with previous literature findings. In the second STAR model, whilst past sales effects remain significant although smaller, contemporaneous and price expectations effects are also found to be significant, the latter capturing anchoring and slow adjustment heuristics in price setting behaviour.

As valuations used in the database are based upon comparable sales, then in the recessionary periods covered in the dataset, finding comparables may have become more difficult, and hence this, in turn, may have impacted on valuation accuracy.

In addition to past effects, contemporaneous transactions and expected future values need to be taken in consideration in analysing spatial interactions in housing markets. These factors will influence housing markets in different cities and countries.

The information content of property valuations should more carefully consider the relative importance of different components of asking prices.

This is the first paper to use transactions data over a period of falling house prices in Athens and to consider current and future values in addition to past values in a spatio-temporal context.

This paper aims to examine the housing market in Greece after the Global Financial Crisis focussing on regional analysis and urban markets in Athens and Thessaloniki.

The paper uses a data set of over 70,750 property values from 2007 until 2014 incorporating characteristics variables upon which hedonic models are estimated. These form the bases for calculating value indices for mix adjusted houses/apartments by year and region. The indices are used in a panel model in which regional and economic variables are included as independent variables. Using advances in dynamic panel data modelling, a bias-corrected least squares dummy variable corrected (LSDVC) model is applied.

Results indicate the importance of macroeconomic variables in terms of the role of disposable income and significantly different regional effects. Examining the major urban markets, results indicate significant differences in the response of house values to exogenous demand side influences, consistent with the finding of significant regional differences in the LSDVC.

While data on valuations are used that may contain smoothing, the data set covers a large sample of residential properties. As regional economic differences are significant and persistent, housing markets will also behave differently, and hence national policies, unless targeted, will have regionally differentiated effects.

Regional heterogeneity needs to be considered in model estimation.

Policymakers should consider regional differences to improve policy effectiveness.

This is the first paper to use a large sample of residential properties in Greece and apply the LSDVC model to overcome estimation biases.