This paper aims to unpack the nexus of development and demography controlling for three important variables to represent the meaning of development, that is, poverty rate…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to unpack the nexus of development and demography controlling for three important variables to represent the meaning of development, that is, poverty rate, unemployment rate and human development index (HDI). Demographic variables are proxied with total fertility rate (TFR) and net migration rate (NMR).
Design/methodology/approach
This research applies cluster analysis at the provincial level using INDO-DAPOER and 2015 Intercensal Population Survey data sets.
Findings
Demographic and development status of Indonesian provinces can be classified into four clusters, and members of these clusters are mostly dissimilar with those of previous groupings on demographic dividends (Adioetomo, 2018). With only less than 50% matching rate, the author argues that there is no simple linear relationship between demographic and development variables.
Research limitations/implications
The most recent data set on Population Census Year 2020 has not been made available at the time of the writing. Also sometimes known as unsupervised classification, cluster analysis is about finding groups in a set of objects characterised only by certain measurements; therefore, findings of this study need to be positioned solely within the context of development and demography.
Practical implications
Taxonomy in this study offers a more nuanced and contextual understanding of the diverse challenges at the local and regional levels. Recommendations from this study lead to asymmetrical design in development policies and budget proportions at local levels.
Social implications
It is expected that the findings are relevant to the input of policymaking process within the sphere of development and demography, especially for countries with significant size of populations and grappling with development issues.
Originality/value
To the author’s understanding, this paper is the first to discuss the impact of “demographic dividend” to economic development in Indonesia using the approach of cluster analysis. The expected contribution of this work is twofold: Firstly, the author would like to ignite a discourse on the nexus of development and demography using the most recent data set and cutting-edge method. Secondly, the findings are relevant to the input of policymaking process within the sphere of development and demography, especially for countries with significant size of populations and grappling with development issues.
Details
Keywords
The purpose of this paper is to find the relationship between local direct elections and the change in social spending, controlling for GDP per capita, revenues and wide-range…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to find the relationship between local direct elections and the change in social spending, controlling for GDP per capita, revenues and wide-range socio-welfare indicators at the regional level.
Design/methodology/approach
This research uses a model of time-series cross-sectional panel data set for 33 provinces in Indonesia from 2001 to 2012.
Findings
The main finding of this research is that the political budget cycle does exist in Indonesia. Incumbents responded to the direct elections more sensitively rather than to other variables in the model. The most important variables that are significant in the model are not only direct election but also inter-governmental grants. Interestingly, the local economy (as measured by GDP per capita) does not clearly exhibit a meaningful impact.
Research limitations/implications
Although the importance of decentralisation in Indonesia is actually at the regency level, obtaining the data is really challenging. Therefore the exercise on this paper is currently limited only for the provincial level.
Practical implications
This finding conveys the message that there is large room for improvement in inter-governmental transfer formulation, more importantly to the regions where they still entail significant budget support from central government. In addition, transfers during specific periods such as elections need to be modified to avoid the misappropriation of local budget and to mitigate the adverse impact of PBC. The formulation of inter-governmental transfers is pivotal in reducing over-dependence to the central government funding and to ensure the effectiveness of budget devolved at the local level.
Originality/value
To the author’s understanding, the paper is the first to discuss the presence of the political budget cycle on social protection programs in Indonesia. The expected contribution of the current work is twofold: Firstly, the author used a recent data set hosted by the World Bank (INDO-DAPOER). Secondly, the findings are relevant to the discussion within the sphere of development studies and political science.