A widely accepted belief indicates that terror activities have negative impact on stock markets. Contrary to numerous empirical studies, the purpose of this paper is to consider…
Abstract
Purpose
A widely accepted belief indicates that terror activities have negative impact on stock markets. Contrary to numerous empirical studies, the purpose of this paper is to consider this issue from another point of view in the sense that markets can become desensitized to terror.
Design/methodology/approach
Here, instead of directly analyzing the existing data, the stochastic nature of the events is taken into consideration.
Findings
The author compares three countries and found out that the correlation between terror and stock markets is almost nil when terror events become a commonplace.
Originality/value
This paper applies mean reverting stochastic processes to terror incidents and brings out interesting results.
Details
Keywords
Deniz Ilalan and Burak Pirgaip
Since the famous tapering talk of Bernanke, US Dollar (USD) made a significant appreciation on emerging market local currencies. When the stock indices are adjusted to USD, a…
Abstract
Since the famous tapering talk of Bernanke, US Dollar (USD) made a significant appreciation on emerging market local currencies. When the stock indices are adjusted to USD, a negative relationship is usually the case. USD index is a natural candidate for measurement of these effects. It is seen that some emerging stock indices exhibit negative causality with USD index in Granger sense. Moreover, the authors take into account rolling correlations of USD index and the relevant stock indices and examine them on the investment horizon beginning from tapering talk. The authors deduce that Granger causality test and correlation results are coherent with each other which sheds light to the famous discussion whether causality implies correlation or vice versa.