J. David Hacker, Michael R. Haines and Matthew Jaremski
The US fertility transition in the nineteenth century is unusual. Not only did it start from a very high fertility level and very early in the nation’s development, but it also…
Abstract
The US fertility transition in the nineteenth century is unusual. Not only did it start from a very high fertility level and very early in the nation’s development, but it also took place long before the nation’s mortality transition, industrialization, and urbanization. This paper assembles new county-level, household-level, and individual-level data, including new complete-count IPUMS microdata databases of the 1830–1880 censuses, to evaluate different theories for the nineteenth-century American fertility transition. We construct cross-sectional models of net fertility for currently-married white couples in census years 1830–1880 and test the results with a subset of couples linked between the 1850–1860, 1860–1870, and 1870–1880 censuses. We find evidence of marital fertility control consistent with hypotheses as early as 1830. The results indicate support for several different but complementary theories of the early US fertility decline, including the land availability, conventional structuralist, ideational, child demand/quality-quantity tradeoff, and life cycle savings theories.
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Jacqueline M. Archibald and Karen Renaud
Penetration tests have become a valuable tool in the cyber security defence strategy in terms of detecting vulnerabilities. Although penetration testing has traditionally focussed…
Abstract
Purpose
Penetration tests have become a valuable tool in the cyber security defence strategy in terms of detecting vulnerabilities. Although penetration testing has traditionally focussed on technical aspects, the field has started to realise the importance of the human in the organisation, and the need to ensure that humans are resistant to cyberattacks. To achieve this, some organisations “pentest” their employees, testing their resilience and ability to detect and repel human-targeted attacks. In a previous paper, the authors reported on PoinTER (Prepare TEst Remediate), a human pentesting framework, tailored to the needs of SMEs. This paper aims to propose improvements to refine the framework. The improvements are based on a derived set of ethical principles that have been subjected to ethical scrutiny
Design/methodology/approach
The authors conducted a systematic literature review of academic research, a review of actual hacker techniques, industry recommendations and official body advice related to social engineering techniques. To meet the requirements to have an ethical human pentesting framework, the authors compiled a list of ethical principles from the research literature which they used to filter out techniques deemed unethical.
Findings
Drawing on social engineering techniques from academic research, reported by the hacker community, industry recommendations and official body advice and subjecting each technique to ethical inspection, using a comprehensive list of ethical principles, the authors propose the refined GDPR-compliant and privacy respecting PoinTER framework. The list of ethical principles, as suggested, could also inform ethical technical pentests.
Originality/value
Previous work has considered penetration testing humans, but few have produced a comprehensive framework such as PoinTER. PoinTER has been rigorously derived from multiple sources and ethically scrutinised through inspection, using a comprehensive list of ethical principles derived from the research literature.
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Solomon W. Polachek, Xu Zhang and Xing Zhou
This paper shows how a shorter fecundity horizon for females (a biological constraint) leads to age and educational disparities between husbands and wives. Empirical support is…
Abstract
This paper shows how a shorter fecundity horizon for females (a biological constraint) leads to age and educational disparities between husbands and wives. Empirical support is based on data from a natural experiment commencing before and ending after China’s 1980 one-child law. The results indicate that fertility in China declined by about 1.2–1.4 births per woman as a result of China’s anti-natalist policies. Concomitantly spousal age and educational differences narrowed by approximately 0.5–1.0 and 1.0–1.6 years, respectively. These decreases in the typical husband’s age and educational advantages are important in explaining the division of labor in the home, often given as a cause for the gender wage gap. Indeed, as fertility declined, which has been the historical trend in most developed countries, husband-wife age and educational differences diminished leading to less division of labor in the home and a smaller gender wage disparity. Unlike other models of division of labor in the home which rely on innately endogenous factors, this paper’s theory is based on an exogenous biological constraint.
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Alan Meaden, David Hacker and Kerry Spencer
Predicting the imminence of high risk behaviours in in‐patients with schizophrenia is an ongoing concern. The purpose of this paper is to explore the utility, validity and…
Abstract
Purpose
Predicting the imminence of high risk behaviours in in‐patients with schizophrenia is an ongoing concern. The purpose of this paper is to explore the utility, validity and reliability of an adapted early warning signs methodology for dynamic risk assessment.
Design/methodology/approach
Nursing staff were interviewed to identify operationally defined early warning signs of high risk behaviours. Frequency of occurrence of the early warning signs and the high risk behaviour were rated over a one week period to establish the predictive validity of the methodology.
Findings
Support was found for the reliability of staff ratings of the relevance of identified early warning signs and their occurrence within a specified time period. ROC analysis indicates some modest predictive validity in predicting aggressive risk behaviours but effect sizes were small, and there were high rates of false positive predictions.
Research limitations/implications
The small sample size limits generalisability. A longitudinal prospective study to better establish the added predictive power of the method over the use of largely actuarial methods is needed.
Originality/value
A dynamic risk assessment methodology to assess changes in risk for inpatients would benefit both staff and inpatients. No such methodology has been assessed to date.
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Claire Nagi, Eugene Ostapiuk, Leam Craig, David Hacker and Anthony Beech
The purpose of this study was to explore the predictive validity of the revised Problem Identification Checklist (PIC‐R) in predicting inpatient and community violence using a…
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to explore the predictive validity of the revised Problem Identification Checklist (PIC‐R) in predicting inpatient and community violence using a retrospective design. The Historical Scale (H‐Scale) of the HCR‐20 was employed to control for static risk factors. The predictive accuracy between predictors and outcome measures was evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis. The PIC‐R significantly predicted inpatient violence (AUC range 0.77‐0.92) over a 12‐month follow‐up period but did not predict community violence. Conversely, the H‐Scale significantly predicted community violence (AUC 0.82) but did not predict inpatient violence over a 12‐month follow‐up period. The findings offer preliminary validation for the predictive accuracy of the PIC‐R for violence in a UK inpatient population. Additionally, the findings suggest that short‐term risk of violence within a psychiatric inpatient population may be more related to dynamic and clinical risk variables rather than to static ones.
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W.S Hopwood, D. Sinason and R.R Tucker
Emphasizes that although electronic commerce continues to grow, with it come many problems including the worry of security over the Internet. Presents a systematic approach to…
Abstract
Emphasizes that although electronic commerce continues to grow, with it come many problems including the worry of security over the Internet. Presents a systematic approach to developing and continuously improving Web security systems — allowing for enterprise‐wide controls regarding security risks. Goes into much detail regarding systems, security and design.