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This study is motivated in part by the fact that the unfolding 2022 bear market, which has reached the −25% drawdown, has not been preceded by the inverted 10Y-3 m spread or an inverted near-term forward spread.

The authors develop a three-factor probit model to predict/explain the deep stock market drawdowns, which the authors define as the drawdowns in excess of 20%.

The study results show that (1) the rising credit risk predicts a deep drawdown about a year in advance and (2) the monetary policy easing precedes an imminent drawdown below the 20% threshold.

This study three-factor probit model shows adaptability beyond the typical recessionary bear market and predicts/explains the liquidity-based selloffs, like the 2022 and possibly the 1987 deep drawdowns.

Bank profit warnings represent a milder form of negative news than a bank failure. Yet, they may contain signals about a bank or its rivals because the information is transmitted when the bank believes that the market is overly optimistic about its future earnings. Thus, the profit warning serves as a means by which insiders of the bank can reduce the asymmetric information between the bank’s insiders and its investors. We find that banks experience negative valuation effects in response to their profit warnings. The banks’ profit warnings result in significant negative valuation effects for its corresponding rival banks, which implies that the warning carries valuable information about banking industry conditions. However, the effects on rivals are attenuated since the passage of Regulation Fair Disclosure (RFD). This implies that investors may be relying on more transparent sources of information about individual banks rather than relying on one bank’s warning as a signal about other banks. Furthermore, bank regulations may allow for more transparent communication by banks than that of nonbank firms.

Purpose – This study explores the probability of expropriation of minority shareholders by controlling shareholders in the form of CEO compensation under an imperfect governance institution by using a novel Chinese dataset over 2001–2010.

Design/methodology/approach – We use a direct method to gauge controlling shareholders’ tunneling and expropriation of minority shareholders, and we present a simple model to link corporate governance and the degree of entrenchment by the largest shareholder. We use both Logit and Probit models to predict the likelihood of tunneling and use two-stage least square (2SLS) regression to address the endogeneity issues.

Findings – There are significant deterioration effects between controlling shareholder's tunneling and firm performance. Firms with more tunneling activities typically have larger controlling ownership, greater evidence of state control, less balance of power among large shareholders, and weaker board characteristics.

Research limitations/implications – The positive relationship between controlling shareholders’ tunneling and executive compensation implies that the controlling shareholder might divert personal benefits from the public firms at the expense of minority shareholders.

Originality/value – We focus on the effects of corporate governance restructuring on executive compensation and controlling shareholders’ tunneling in the Chinese context, and we also investigate whether these effects are stronger with the involvement of state ownership. We empirically address the issues between executive compensation and expropriation of minority shareholders.

The purpose of this paper is to reexamine the impact of investor sentiment on real estate investment trust (REIT) returns using direct, survey-based measures of sentiment to categorize sentiment from institutional and individual investors.

The authors provide a framework in which sentiment is classified into individual and institutional investor sentiment under the assumption that investors, depending on sophistication, react differently to the same set of information and will influence REIT prices differently. The authors employ a methodology that uses panel regression analyses and divides the sample of REITs into size and performance portfolios.

The regression results suggest that institutional investor sentiment is positively and significantly related to REIT returns contemporaneously for multiple sample specifications. These results are consistent with high levels of institutional ownership in REITs. Results also suggest that individual investor sentiment only influences small capitalization and low-α portfolios.

The findings provide more evidence on the influence of investor sentiment on security pricing even for highly regulated sectors such as the REIT industry. Investors may use changes in sentiment as signals for portfolio rebalancing and capital allocations.

Take a bit of history Prior to the Second World War industrial training in South Africa meant the training of white artisans and officials for employment in the gold and coal mines and the comparatively modest industrial enterprises. The war resulted in greatly intensified training activity in the South African Defence Force, in industry itself and as part of the Empire Air Training Scheme for the Allied Air Forces, notably South African Air Force and the RAF. This latter training effort involved the importation of expertise and equipment on a large scale and left a post‐war legacy of men who found the country congenial and stayed — or returned. Many of those men are still to be found on the industrial training scene. The greatly reduced volume of imports of consumer goods, the need for the equipping of the forces and the stepping up of mining production which were caused by the war initiated industrial growth which has continued ever since. It has been positively encouraged by Government policy based on national self‐sufficiency for strategic reasons.

We investigate whether women are more likely than men to choose to pursue a competency-based labour market integration programme, rather than the time-based labour market integration programme. We further investigate whether women with existing but uncertified skills are even more likely to pursue a competency-based labour market integration programme.

We test our hypotheses using ordinary least squares applied to linear probability models. We discuss the relative advantages of this methodology. We show the robustness of our results through multiple specifications and estimation methods. Finally, we discuss the reasons preventing us from granting our results a causal interpretation and discuss how they are surmountable in future research.

Women are significantly more likely to enrol into competency-based programmes, relative to time-based. Women with existing but uncertified skills are significantly more likely to enrol into competency-based programmes, whereas women without skills or with college degrees are not significantly different from the baseline. Our findings are robust to various specifications, and we include a comprehensive set of fixed-effect vectors, addressing industrial, occupational and time-varying state specificities.

First, our empirical test of hypothesis H2 is hindered by the construction of the “some college or associate’s degree” variable in RAPIDS data. “Some college” is very different from an associate’s degree. Second we had to choose between omitted variable bias and selection bias. Because of the demonstrated importance of the occupation and industry variables in existing literature, we included those variables at the risk of selection bias. Occupation and industry fixed effects reduce, but do not eliminate, omitted variable bias. Finally, the third limitation of this paper is external validity. Registered Apprenticeship programmes are quite idiosyncratic to the United States.

The rollout and expansion of CBRA may thus be an avenue through policymakers may reduce the gender training gap. This may in turn give more women access to the labour market and allow more women to benefit from the “wage premia” of Registered Apprenticeship completion on the labour market (Lou and Hawley, 2019).

This article is the first that applies econometric methods to investigate women’s choices of labour market integration programmes, using Registered Apprenticeship as a case study. We discuss the implications of our findings, highlighting how competency-based programmes may be an approach to better serving more diverse populations in Registered Apprenticeship.

This paper looks at professional and philosophical concerns about intentional deception and lies by professionals to clients. The implications for forensic practice are discussed.

It has been suggested that the emotional needs of people with intellectual disabilities have been neglected (Kroese, 1998). More recently there has been evidence of increased clinical and research activity in this area (Beail, 2003; Bouras & Holt, 2007; Foundation for People with Learning Disabilities, 2004). Currently much of the focus in this area is on mental ill‐health. This article will consider briefly the literature on mental ill‐health, with particular emphasis on the development of individual treatment approaches. From this discussion it will be evident that much of the research and theory in this area focuses on deficits and disadvantage. I will go on to suggest that a clinical and research focus that explores strengths and resilience will offer a more positive agenda for developing understanding of emotional well‐being and mental ill‐health in people with intellectual disabilities.