Boris Eisenbart, Dan Lovallo, Massimo Garbuio, Matteo Cristofaro and Andy Dong
Does future thinking enhance managers’ innovative behavior? This study aims to posit that the ability to project events while considering current/future variables and their…
Abstract
Purpose
Does future thinking enhance managers’ innovative behavior? This study aims to posit that the ability to project events while considering current/future variables and their development (i.e. future thinking) – inextricably linked with the knowledge creation process – may enhance the manager’s accuracy and the number of potentially successful innovative ideas for organizations.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use a between-group experiment to examine the innovation choices of 47 subjects with experience in evaluating the market potential of new products when asked to support or otherwise reject real-life innovation-related ideas. The authors test the accuracy of decisions made by participants primed to apply future thinking, practically implemented through abductive reasoning, in their decision-making.
Findings
The authors found a significant change in managers’ innovative choices, with participants primed for future thinking making significantly more accurate decisions than the control group. Those participants both correctly chose innovation-related ideas with significant future potential and rejected ideas with limited potential that ultimately failed.
Originality/value
This study explores how future thinking enhances managers’ innovative behavior in organizations. It provides empirical evidence on how future thinking, practiced through abductive reasoning, can work to foster innovative behavior, which is an antecedent of knowledge creation. Organizations that foster future thinking concurrently create knowledge, increasing their competitive advantage in the long run.
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Wayne Borchardt, Takhaui Kamzabek and Dan Lovallo
A decade after Powell et al.’s (2011) seminal article on behavioral strategy, which called for models to solve real-world problems, the authors revisit the field to ask whether…
Abstract
Purpose
A decade after Powell et al.’s (2011) seminal article on behavioral strategy, which called for models to solve real-world problems, the authors revisit the field to ask whether behavioral strategy is coming of age. The purpose of this paper is to explain how behavioral strategy can and has been used in real-world settings.
Design/methodology/approach
This study presents a conceptual review with case study examples of the impact of behavioral strategy on real-world problems.
Findings
This study illustrates several examples where behavioral strategy debiasing has been effective. Although no causal claims can be made, with the stark contrast between the negative impact of biased strategies and the positive results emerging from debiasing techniques, this study argues that there is evidence of the benefits of a behavioral strategy mindset, and that this should be the mindset of a responsible strategic leader.
Practical implications
This study presents a demonstration of analytical, debate and organizational debiasing techniques and how they are being used in real-world settings, specifically military intelligence, Mergers and acquisitions deal-making, resource allocation and capital projects.
Social implications
Behavioral strategy has broad application in private and public sectors. It has proven practical value in various settings, for example, the application of reference class forecasting in large infrastructure projects.
Originality/value
A conceptual review of behavioral strategy in the wild.
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Anish Purkayastha, Vikas Kumar and Dan Lovallo
This study seeks to understand how business group-affiliated firms perform in emerging markets. Previous studies identify that in spite of changes in the competitive landscape…
Abstract
Purpose
This study seeks to understand how business group-affiliated firms perform in emerging markets. Previous studies identify that in spite of changes in the competitive landscape, seemingly counter-intuitively, business group affiliates outperform their standalone counterparts in emerging markets. This study adopts a knowledge-based view to resolve this apparent paradox.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses a problematization methodology to qualitatively analyze the strategic decisions of Indian business group-affiliated firms. This study cross-validates their analysis with the empirical results available in published academic and practitioner articles.
Findings
Previous studies explain this outperformance paradox based on assumptions that include filling institutional voids, access to strategic resources and leveraging political connections. By questioning these assumptions, this study identifies an alternative explanation that is based on affiliates’ ability to adopt a strategic approach that balances knowledge capital acquired through international expansion and innovation.
Practical implications
The findings have important implications for managers of business group-affiliated firms in emerging markets, as well as for those in developed markets seeking to compete or collaborate in emerging markets.
Originality/value
This study provides a framework for managers of business group affiliates to identify suitable pathways to higher levels of competitive advantage.
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Massimo Garbuio and Dan Lovallo
Whether an organization’s political behaviour is positively related to its performance has been a long-standing question. Most studies elaborating on this issue, although rich in…
Abstract
Purpose
Whether an organization’s political behaviour is positively related to its performance has been a long-standing question. Most studies elaborating on this issue, although rich in detail, primarily have been limited to case studies, apart from a niche set of studies in international business. This study aims to explore this question through a survey study of managers and executives from around the world, across a range of industries.
Design/methodology/approach
The study explores the link between politics, the ability of a firm to speedily reach the market and its growth rate through a study of 382 executives from across the world. It also investigates alternative explanations of slow speed to market due to power centralization, decision-making layers and conflict.
Findings
The results show that politics – the observable but often covert actions through which executives influence internal decisions – has a direct negative effect on a firm’s ability to reach the market first and on its growth rate. That is, not only is politics time-consuming but it may also have a detrimental impact on the selection of the best growth opportunities.
Originality/value
Politics does have a negative impact on growth; it slows down a firm’s growth and its ability to reach the market. This study eliminates possible alternative explanations of a slow pace to market: slower companies are not so because they have too many decision-making layers but because they use consultative processes in resource-allocation decisions, or because of conflict.
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Massimo Garbuio, Dan Lovallo, Joseph Porac and Andy Dong
Strategic option generation is a fundamental step in strategy formulation. Several lenses have been proposed to explain its foundations, including the microeconomics positioning…
Abstract
Strategic option generation is a fundamental step in strategy formulation. Several lenses have been proposed to explain its foundations, including the microeconomics positioning school, and the resource and capabilities based view of the firm. These approaches are largely based on inductive and deductive logics, which are not the logics that provide strategic options that are potentially novel, profitable, and largely differentiated from competitive offerings. In this chapter, we propose a unifying framework of the cognitive foundations of strategic option generation. Building on five fundamental cognitive acts – imitation, framing, analogical reasoning, abductive reasoning, and mental simulation, this proposed model both synthesizes the extant literature and provides guidance about promising avenues for future theoretical and empirical research.
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Massimo Garbuio, Dan Lovallo and John Horn
Mergers & acquisitions (M&A) are an important element of any company's growth plan. However, the actual performance of most M&A activity fails to live up to the expectations of…
Abstract
Mergers & acquisitions (M&A) are an important element of any company's growth plan. However, the actual performance of most M&A activity fails to live up to the expectations of the acquirers. The psychological biases that affect decision-making have been posited as a source of this disappointing performance. The broad strokes in which these biases have been offered up as explanation for M&A failure don't offer much insight into the specific causes, and therefore the actions business leaders can take to mitigate their impact. We review a 4-step M&A process, identify the different biases that affect the different stages, and then offer practical debiasing techniques targeted at that particular stage of the decision-making process. This targeted debiasing can help business leaders find practical solutions to this vexing problem. Finally, we review two biases that motivate decision makers to avoid pursuing M&A deals at all – to the detriment of achieving their growth targets.
Reviews the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoints practical implications from cutting‐edge research and case studies.
Abstract
Purpose
Reviews the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoints practical implications from cutting‐edge research and case studies.
Design/methodology/approach
This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context.
Findings
The new chief executive of a company which owned a string of local newspapers brought in a consultant to “streamline” the organization and “to make efficiencies” – in other words to cut costs. If his brief had been to ensure the long‐term viability of the business, he would have gone about it in a totally different way. Cutting costs is easy; ensuring those cuts don't irreparably damage the company is the hard part.
Practical implications
Provides strategic insights and practical thinking that have influenced some of the world's leading organizations.
Originality/value
The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy‐to digest format.
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Barkha Dhingra, Mahender Yadav, Mohit Saini and Ruhee Mittal
This study aims to conduct a bibliometric analysis to provide a comprehensive picture and identify future research directions to enrich the existing literature on behavioral…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to conduct a bibliometric analysis to provide a comprehensive picture and identify future research directions to enrich the existing literature on behavioral biases.
Design/methodology/approach
The data set comprises 518 articles from the Web of Science database. Performance analysis is used to highlight the significant contributors (authors, institutions, countries and journals) and contributions (highly influential articles) in the field of behavioral biases. In addition, network analysis is used to delve into the conceptual and social structure of the research domain.
Findings
The current review has identified four major themes: “Influence of behavioral biases on investment decisions,” “Determinants of home bias,” “Impact of biases on stock market variables” and “Investors’ decision-making under uncertainty.” These themes reveal that a majority of studies have focused on equity markets, and research on other asset classes remains underexplored.
Research limitations/implications
This study extracted data from a single database (Web of Science) to ensure standardization of results. Consequently, future research could broaden the scope of the bibliometric review by incorporating multiple databases.
Originality/value
The novelty of this research is to provide valuable guidance by evaluating the existing literature and advancing the knowledge base on the conceptual and social structure of behavioral biases.