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1 – 10 of 53
Article
Publication date: 3 October 2016

David McIlhatton, William McGreal, Paloma Taltavul de la Paz and Alastair Adair

There is a lack of understanding in the literature on the spatial relationships between crime and house price. This paper aims to test the impact of spatial effects in the housing…

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Abstract

Purpose

There is a lack of understanding in the literature on the spatial relationships between crime and house price. This paper aims to test the impact of spatial effects in the housing market, how these are related to the incidence of crime and whether effects vary by the type of crime.

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis initially explores univariate and bivariate spatial patterns in crime and house price data for the Belfast Metropolitan Area using Moran’s I and Local Indicator Spatial Association (LISA) models, and secondly uses spatial autoregression models to estimate the role of crime on house prices. A spatially weighted two-stage least-squares model is specified to analyse the joint impact of crime variables. The analysis is cross sectional, based on a panel of data.

Findings

The paper illustrates that the pricing impact of crime is complex and varies by type of crime, property type and location. It is shown that burglary and theft are associated with higher-income neighbourhoods, whereas violence against persons, criminal damage and drugs offences are mainly associated with lower-priced neighbourhoods. Spatial error effects are reduced in models based on specific crime variables.

Originality/value

The originality of this paper is the application of spatial analysis in the study of the impact of crime upon house prices. Criticisms of hedonic price models are based on unexplained error effects; the significance of this paper is the reduction of spatial error effects achievable through the analysis of crime data.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 9 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 February 2014

M. McCord, P.T. Davis, M. Haran, D. McIlhatton and J. McCord

Accounting for locational effects in determining price is of fundamental importance. The demise of the mainstream property market has culminated in increasing appetite and…

Abstract

Purpose

Accounting for locational effects in determining price is of fundamental importance. The demise of the mainstream property market has culminated in increasing appetite and investment activity within the private rental sector. The primary purpose of this paper aims to analyse the local variation and spatial heterogeneity in residential rental prices in a large urban market in the UK using various geo-statistical approaches.

Design/methodology/approach

Applying achieved price data derived from a leading internet-based rental agency for Belfast Northern Ireland is analysed in a number of spatially based modelling frameworks encompassing more traditional approaches such as hedonic regressive models to more complex spatial filtering methods to estimate rental values as a function of the properties implicit characteristics and spatial measures.

Findings

The principal findings show the efficacy of the geographically weighted regression (GWR) technique as it provides increased accuracy in predicting marginal price estimates relative to other spatial techniques. The results reveal complex spatial non-stationarity across the Belfast metropole emphasizing the premise of location in determining and understanding rental market performance. A key finding emanating from the research is that the high level of segmentation across localised pockets of the Belfast market, as a consequence of socio-political conflict and ethno-religious territoriality segregation, requires further analytical insight and model specification in order to understand the exogenous spatial and societal effects/implications for rental value.

Originality/value

This study is one of only a few investigations of spatial residential rent price variation applying the GWR methodology, spatial filtering and other spatial techniques within the confines of a UK housing market. In the context of residential rent prices, the research highlights that a soft segmentation modelling approaches are essential for understanding rental gradients in a polarised ethnocratic city.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 7 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 January 2022

Paloma Taltavull de La Paz, Jim Berry, David McIlhatton, David Chapman and Katja Bergonzoli

This paper focusses on analysing the impact of crime on the housing market in Los Angeles (LA) County. By looking at different types of crime instead of general crime measures and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper focusses on analysing the impact of crime on the housing market in Los Angeles (LA) County. By looking at different types of crime instead of general crime measures and controlling by spatial dimension of prices and crime as well as endogeneity, a model is developed that allows for the understanding of how a specific crime impacts the housing market transaction price. To perform the analysis, the paper merges different data sets (crime, housing transaction and census data) and then computes the distances to crucial transport modes to control the accessibility features affecting housing prices. The latter allows estimating the association of housing prices and crime in the distance and estimating the impact on housing depending on it.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper focusses on the following crimes: aggravated assault, burglary (property crime), narcotics, non-aggravated assault and vandalism. The paper shows firstly how incidents of reported crime are distributed across space and how they are related to each other – thus highlighting crime models with spatial influences. Secondly, the research utilises instrumental variables within the methodology to estimate house prices using spatial analysis techniques while controlling for endogeneity. Thirdly, it estimates the direct impact of crime on house prices and explores the impact of housing and neighbourhood features.

Findings

Results suggest that house transaction prices and crime are closely correlated in two senses. Housing prices are endogenously negatively associated with the levels of narcotics and aggravated assaults. For narcotics, the impact of distance is shorter (1,000 m). However, for burglary, vandalism and non-aggravated assaults, the price reaction suggests a positive association: the further away the crime occurs, the higher the prices. The paper also shows the large spatial association of different crimes suggesting that they occur together and that their accumulation would make negative externalities appear affecting the whole neighbourhood.

Research limitations/implications

The use of a huge database allows interesting findings, but one limitation can be to not have longer time observations to identify the crime evolution and its impact on housing prices.

Practical implications

Large implications as the relationship identified in this paper allow defining precise policies to avoid crime in different areas in LA. In addition, crime has significant but quantitative small effects on LA housing transaction prices suggesting that the effect depends on the spatial scale as well as lack on information about where the crimes are committed. Lack on information suggests low transparency in the market, affecting the transaction decision-taken process, affecting the risk perception and with relevant implications over household welfare.

Originality/value

This paper relates the spatial association among crimes defining the hotspots and their impacts on housing transaction prices.

Article
Publication date: 30 August 2021

Pernille H. Christensen

Between 2013 and 2016 Western countries experienced a nearly 600% increase in terrorist attacks. Among the most significant shift in terrorism trends during this time is the…

Abstract

Purpose

Between 2013 and 2016 Western countries experienced a nearly 600% increase in terrorist attacks. Among the most significant shift in terrorism trends during this time is the recent focus on civilians in crowded places as a frequent target. Although crowded places have become critical targets for terrorist attacks, there remains a dearth of research studying crowded places or the built environment practitioner's role in creating crowded places that are as resilient as possible against terrorism.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper presents the results from 33 in-depth, semi-structured, one-hour interviews with property developers, property investors, property managers, security consultants, designers, planners and government/policy officials in Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne, Australia. A purposive, snowball sampling method was used to identify participants in the study.

Findings

This research extends the existing literature base on counterterrorism protective security, a distinctly under-researched component of the terrorism research discourse, by developing a baseline of threat considerations considered during the planning, design and development process. This paper presents the Australian results of a first-of-its-kind international study that connects the planning, design and development of real estate in crowded places with planning for protective counterterrorism, and investigates what, when and how counterterrorism protective security (CTPS) is considered in the development process of crowded places. The findings show that a series of common threats were identified across the stakeholder groups, including development risk, development location/site selection, natural phenomena and human-induced issues.

Research limitations/implications

This research extends the current knowledge base on CTPS and has the potential to influence decision-makers in both the counterterrorism policy landscape and those influential in developing standards for the planning, design, construction and management of real estate assets.

Originality/value

An original contribution of this research is detailing the significant range of threats, impacts of events and organisational influences that exist in informing the real estate development process.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 30 November 2020

Ali Akbulut and Gökçen Firdevs Yücel Caymaz

Today, the presence of unwanted activities threatening the safety of the field, which has negative effects on daily life and social psychology, is increasing day by day. There is…

Abstract

Today, the presence of unwanted activities threatening the safety of the field, which has negative effects on daily life and social psychology, is increasing day by day. There is no doubt that it is inevitable to avoid these threats, but it is possible to take some measures to reduce the destructive power of these threats. Nowadays, increasing terrorist attacks increase the importance of field safety design in urban areas. There is a loss of life in attacks around the world. The subject of this study is to investigate the design criteria related to the built environment and the measures to be taken in the case of bomb attacks in the built environment. In this study, a checklist will designed to measure the security design process around the building. The checklist titles are taken mainly from the “Safety design and Landscape Architecture” series of the Landscape Architecture Technical Information Series/LATIS publications by the American Society of Landscape Architects (ASLA) and the Risk Management Series of the Federal Emergency Management Agency/FEMA (FEMA, 2003, 2007; LATIS, 2016) and others. The checklist created as a result of literature review will be tested in Istanbul Sultanahmet Square. As a result of the study, it was determined that improvements should be made in the areas of vehicular and pedestrian access, parking lots, lighting and trash receptacle designs around Sultanahmet Square.

Details

International Case Studies in the Management of Disasters
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83982-187-5

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 April 2012

M. McCord, P.T. Davis, M. Haran, S. McGreal and D. McIlhatton

Tobler's law of geography states that things that are close to one another tend to be more alike than things that are far apart. In this regard, the spatial pattern of price…

1273

Abstract

Purpose

Tobler's law of geography states that things that are close to one another tend to be more alike than things that are far apart. In this regard, the spatial pattern of price distribution is defined by the arrangement of individual entities in space and the geographic relationships among them. The purpose of this paper is to provide emerging findings of research analysing the salient factors which impact on the sale price of residential properties using a spatial regression approach.

Design/methodology/approach

The research develops and formulates a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to incorporate residential sales transactions within the Belfast Metropolitan Area over the course of 2010. Transaction data were sourced from the University of Ulster House Price Index survey (2010, Q1‐Q4). The GWR approach was then evaluated relative to a standard hedonic model to determine the spatial heterogeneity of residential property price within the Belfast Metropolitan Area.

Findings

This investigation finds that the GWR technique provides increased accuracy in predicting marginal price estimates, in comparison with traditional hedonic modelling, within the Belfast housing market.

Originality/value

This study is one of only a few investigations of spatial house price variation applying the GWR methodology within the confines of a UK housing market. In this respect it enhances applied based knowledge and understanding of geographically weighted regression.

Details

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1366-4387

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 June 2014

T.V. Grissom, M. McCord, D. McIlhatton and M. Haran

The purpose of this paper, which is the first of a two-part series, is to build upon the established research on environmental economics and sustainability theory developed by…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper, which is the first of a two-part series, is to build upon the established research on environmental economics and sustainability theory developed by Ramsey (1928), Weitzman (2007) and Gollier (2010). The Ramsey-Weitzman-Gollier model, with the contribution of Howarth (2009) and Nordhaus (2007a, b), focuses on discount rate development for environmental and long-term assets, linking discounted utility analysis embedded in the CCAPM model of Lucas (1978) to the policy concerns associated with the valuation of public and sustainable resources. This paper further investigates these issues to the rates structure appropriate for exhaustible resources with a particular emphasis on urban land, based upon the differentiation of strong and weak form sustainability concepts constrained by the objectives of the sustainable criterion of Daly and Cobb (1994).

Design/methodology/approach

The paper integrates the concepts of discount rate development for environmental and long-term assets and discounted utility analysis to the policy concerns associated with the valuation of public and sustainable resources. It develops new theoretical insight in order to allow the theoretical formulation of discount and capitalization rates that can be empirically applied and tested.

Findings

The paper provides theoretical support for a new approach concerned with the development of capitalization and discount rates in the valuation of non-renewable resources. A key concern of valuing non-renewable or limited resource endowments (in space or time) is the problem of irreversible investment or irrevocable decision implementation as suggested by Arrow-Fisher (1974), Krautkraemer (1985) and Daly and Cobb (1994). It investigates the challenge with developing capitalization rates and valuation of depleting resources temporally, within the constraints of sustainability. To achieve this, an optimal control discounting procedure subject to a sustainable objective statement is employed – in this context it suggests that sustainability should be treated as an alternative to traditional growth and the maximization of near-term returns.

Originality/value

This paper extends the construct of developing rates structures appropriate for the valuation of exhaustible resources. It places a conceptual emphasis on urban land development. The measures developed and the insights gained may serve as a basis for future research on the optimal levels of sustainable development appropriate for different nations.

Details

Property Management, vol. 32 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 July 2014

J. McCord, M. McCord, W. McCluskey, P.T. Davis, D. McIlhatton and M. Haran

The aim of this study is to add to the emerging knowledge base in the UK and be of relevance to land use planners and all stakeholders in property taxation. Urban green open…

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Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this study is to add to the emerging knowledge base in the UK and be of relevance to land use planners and all stakeholders in property taxation. Urban green open spaces are valuable environmental resources often associated with positive influences for quality of life and property value.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a hedonic pricing specification, this paper measures the proximate effect of public green space on residential property value. It examines the relationship between 3,854 residential sales transactions and public green spaces across the Belfast housing market gathered from Land and Property Services throughout the year 2011 showing the percentage effect on property value with respect to distance to public green spaces.

Findings

The results show that, ceteris paribus, urban green space has a significant positive impact on proximate residential properties sale price for the terrace and apartment sectors and that terrace and apartment property located closer to public green spaces achieved increases in sale price of up to 49 per cent. Adjacency to green open space produced significant property value premiums in only two of the four housing types analysed, with limited statistically significant proximate effects evident for the detached and semi-detached sectors, a finding which has important social and public policy implications.

Originality/value

A number of empirical studies have demonstrated that public green space, such as urban parks, have a positive impact on property values. However, there is a paucity of empirical research on this relationship in the UK. This study serves to address this gap by examining the effect of public green spaces on house price within the medium-sized regional city in the UK.

Details

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1366-4387

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 July 2020

Jan de Graaff and Joachim Zietz

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of crime on apartment prices for Hamburg, Germany, for the years 2012 to 2017.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of crime on apartment prices for Hamburg, Germany, for the years 2012 to 2017.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use a panel data setting with fixed effects estimators and temporal lags to moderate the endogeneity concerns related to crime. The authors consider the effect of total crime, violent and property crime and some sub-categories of crime.

Findings

The estimates show that it takes two to three years for prices to react, with the longer run elasticity reaching −0.12 for total crime, −0.15 for property crime and −0.06 for violent crime. The elasticities are much larger in high-crime areas (−0.22 for total crime, −0.28 and −0.09 for property and violent crime) and elevated also in low-income areas.

Social implications

The finding that property crime matters more in terms of quantitative impact for housing values than violent crime provides reasonable grounds for rethinking the resource allocation of public spending on crime clearance and prevention in Germany. Far more emphasis on preventing property crime appears in order and especially so in the lower income or higher crime areas, which are significantly more affected by crime and in particular property crime than those in high income or low crime areas.

Originality/value

The estimates for Hamburg provide the first detailed results of the impact of crime on real estate prices in Germany. It is also the first study for Continental Europe using panel data.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 November 2024

Jonathan Torres-Tellez and Alberto Montero Soler

The aim of this paper is to analyse the relationship of crime on housing prices during the economic recovery of the housing sector in Spain (2014–2019).

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to analyse the relationship of crime on housing prices during the economic recovery of the housing sector in Spain (2014–2019).

Design/methodology/approach

For this purpose, it is used a regional panel data in first differences for the period 2014–2019 in order to control the endogeneity and multicollinearity that these models usually present in the empirical literature.

Findings

The results show that it takes between one and two years for housing prices in Spain to respond negatively to an increase in crime. Of the eight types of crime analysed, only four of them establish statistically significant relationships with housing prices, while robbery with violence (−2.2%) and burglary with forced entry (−0.5%) have the greatest negative impact on housing prices. Lastly, the results highlight the fact that the category “other crimes against property” – which includes squatting – is the only crime typology that has an immediate effect on housing prices (−1.7%).

Practical implications

These results demonstrate that the more serious property crimes have a greater quantitative negative impact on housing prices. These crimes combine both a violent nature and the fact that they affect property, thus generally causing greater harm to individuals’ emotional well-being and perception of criminality. These findings have direct implications for crime prevention strategies, as the housing market in Spain appears to be more affected by this type of criminal activity. Consequently, public institutions should focus their efforts on mitigating these crimes.

Originality/value

This is the first study that examines the role of crime in the recovery of the real estate sector in Spain following the economic crisis of 2008. It is also one of the pioneering works for the European context, utilizing a panel data approach with first differences and incorporating various types of criminal activities within the same model.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

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