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This paper seeks to contribute to knowledge of the dynamics of global office markets with an assessment of the interaction of rental growth and vacancy rates across a sample of the world's leading office markets.

Econometric methods are used to estimate the relationship between rental growth and vacancy rates (taking into account the possible simultaneity between the two variables) and these equations are then used to estimate the natural vacancy rate at an individual city level and collectively for the three regions assessed (Europe, Asia Pacific and North America). An estimate is also made of the global natural vacancy rate.

The results suggest that estimates of natural vacancy rates vary significantly across the world but these estimates can be helpful to those seeking to understand global office markets. European markets in general have lower natural vacancy rates than those in North America. In Asia Pacific markets there is a greater variation between markets. In general developed markets have lower natural vacancy rates than developing ones. In developing markets the concept of a natural vacancy rate is one that should be applied with care, given the weakness of data and the speed with which they are undergoing structural change. When examining the differences in natural vacancy rates between markets, it is clear that fundamental supply and demand factors are key in driving those differences.

“Rule of thumb” estimates of natural vacancy rates are relatively common. However, a robust methodology for calculating natural vacancy rates is a powerful analytical tool for investors, occupiers and real estate advisors, as it enables a judgement of what supply/demand balance will trigger rental growth.

In estimating the natural vacancy rate across a sample of the world's leading office markets the paper makes an original contribution to the understanding of global office markets and in particular delivers an appreciation of how rental growth and vacancy rates interact.