Concha Artola, Fernando Pinto and Pablo de Pedraza García
The purpose of this paper is to improve the forecast of tourism inflows into Spain by use of Google – indices on internet searches measuring the relative popularity of keywords…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to improve the forecast of tourism inflows into Spain by use of Google – indices on internet searches measuring the relative popularity of keywords associated with travelling to Spain.
Design/methodology/approach
Two models are estimated for each of the three countries with the largest tourist flows into Spain (Germany, UK and France): a conventional model, the best ARIMA model estimated by TRAMO (model 0) and a model augmented with the Google-index relating to searches made from each country (model 1). The overall performance of both models is compared.
Findings
The improvement in forecasting provided by the short-term models that include the G-indicator is quite substantial up to 2012, reducing out of sample mean square errors by 42 per cent, although their performance worsens in the following years.
Research limitations/implications
Deeper study and conceptualization of sources of error in Google trends and data quality is necessary.
Originality/value
The paper illustrates that while this new tool can be a powerful instrument for policy makers as a valuable and timely complement for traditional statistics, further research and better access to data is needed to better understand how internet consumers’ search activities translate (or not) into actual economic outcomes.
Details
Keywords
Nikolaos Askitas and Klaus F. Zimmermann
The purpose of this paper is to recommend the use of internet data for social sciences with a special focus on human resources issues. It discusses the potentials and challenges…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to recommend the use of internet data for social sciences with a special focus on human resources issues. It discusses the potentials and challenges of internet data for social sciences. The authors present a selection of the relevant literature to establish the wide spectrum of topics, which can be reached with this type of data, and link them to the papers in this International Journal of Manpower special issue.
Design/methodology/approach
Internet data are increasingly representing a large part of everyday life, which cannot be measured otherwise. The information is timely, perhaps even daily following the factual process. It typically involves large numbers of observations and allows for flexible conceptual forms and experimental settings.
Findings
Internet data can successfully be applied to a very wide range of human resource issues including forecasting (e.g. of unemployment, consumption goods, tourism, festival winners and the like), nowcasting (obtaining relevant information much earlier than through traditional data collection techniques), detecting health issues and well-being (e.g. flu, malaise and ill-being during economic crises), documenting the matching process in various parts of individual life (e.g. jobs, partnership, shopping), and measuring complex processes where traditional data have known deficits (e.g. international migration, collective bargaining agreements in developing countries). Major problems in data analysis are still unsolved and more research on data reliability is needed.
Research limitations/implications
The data in the reviewed literature are unexplored and underused and the methods available are confronted with known and new challenges. Current research is highly original but also exploratory and premature.
Originality/value
The paper reviews the current attempts in the literature to incorporate internet data into the mainstream of scholarly empirical research and guides the reader through this Special Issue. The authors provide some insights and a brief overview of the current state of research.