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Farmer sentiment may be an important indicator for the agricultural sector, similar to the way that consumer sentiment is linked to the general economy. This study uses the Purdue University–CME Group Ag Economy Barometer to test the degree to which farmer sentiment is correlated with demand for United States Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency (FSA) direct loan applications.

We estimate the dynamics between farmer sentiment and applications to FSA direct operating or farm ownership loans using monthly measures of farmer sentiment and loan applications from October 2015 to April 2023 and pairwise vector autoregression.

A negative relationship exists between farmer sentiment and FSA direct operating loan applications. In contrast, a positive relationship exists between farmer sentiment and FSA direct farm ownership loan applications. Together, the estimated nonzero relationships suggests that the Ag Economy Barometer may be a leading indicator for the Agricultural Economy and that FSA loan programs play a nuanced role in the agricultural credit market.

This study uses unique data sources to further the discussion on the link between farmer sentiment and real economic outcomes and the role of an important US Federal Government farmer lending program: FSA direct loans.

This study examines agricultural lending by commercial banks and the competition they face from the Farm Credit System (FCS) and non-traditional lenders, including merchants, dealers and other input suppliers.

We construct a measure of commercial banks' perceived competition with FCS or non-traditional lenders using the individual responses to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey between 1999 and 2019. Through regression analysis of an unbalanced panel of survey responses, we present a number of stylized facts on the relationship between perceived competition and farm loan rate spreads, collateral requirements, loan delinquencies and expected lending volumes.

Our analysis shows that the two sources of competition have very different effects on commercial bank lending terms, loan portfolio riskiness and expected loan volumes. With these results in mind, we offer a number of suggestions for future research.

We leverage the unique characteristics of the Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey to examine the competition with non-traditional lenders that cannot be observed using administrative data.