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This paper examines the relation between political sentiment and future stock price crash risk.

This study employs firm-level political sentiment from earnings conference calls. The empirical analysis applies panel regressions on 40,254 US firm-year observations between 2002 and 2020, controlling for various firm-specific determinants of crash risk and firm-, industry- as well as time-fixed effects.

The study identifies a negative association between both the level and the change of political sentiment and stock crash risk. Further analysis shows that the predictive power of political sentiment is independent of either non-political sentiment or political risk and remains consistently strong during periods of either high or low economic policy uncertainty. Moreover, the predictive effect of political sentiment is more pronounced for firms with high litigation risk.

The evidence highlights the important role of political sentiment in predicting stock crash risk. The results are consistent with the signaling hypothesis that managers tend to use their tone in conference calls to convey informative messages on firm outlooks.

The study provides a recommendation on risk management: soft information such as political and non-political sentiment in earnings conference calls is useful in managing stock crash risk. The study findings also call for careful consideration of social costs, such as stock crash risk, associated with political policies. Ill-conceived policies may lead to market crashes, which can potentially outweigh the upsides of well-meaning political reforms.

To the authors best knowledge, this is the first study to identify the effect of time-varying firm-level political sentiment conveyed in conference calls on stock price crash.

The purpose of this paper is to examine how employee satisfaction affects firm value around the financial crisis.

The authors use the 2008 financial crisis as exogenous shocks to firms to mitigate endogenous concern that employee satisfaction and firm value can be jointly determined. The authors compare firm value of two groups of firms: the firms on the Fortune magazine’s list of “100 Best Companies to Work For” and matched firms that are not on the list. The authors employ difference-in-difference approaches in the tests.

The authors find that when the crisis happens, the best companies experience larger decreases in firm value than comparable firms. In addition, such decreases in firm value only exist among the best companies with high financial flexibility. The authors also show that job satisfaction alone does not create firm value during the financial crisis; only when interacted with high financial flexibility, employee satisfaction leads to high firm value. Finally, the authors document that best companies do not have any advantage in the recovery of firm value after the crisis, regardless of their level of financial flexibility.

There is considerable debate on whether job satisfaction leads to performance or performance leads to satisfaction (Luthans, 1998). The authors show that the impact of employee satisfaction on firm value changes over time. The authors also identify a crucial factor that impacts the value-creation of employee satisfaction: financial flexibility. The findings suggest that the ambiguous results documented in prior literature can be due to the different sample periods and the failure to identify the impact of financial flexibility in previous studies.

The findings provide helpful implications to the business community. The evidence suggests that to reap the benefits of employee satisfaction, companies need to manage their financial flexibility to buffer against potential negative shocks while having strong corporate governance mechanism to mitigate agency concerns. Moreover, the study provides an investment recommendation to socially responsible investment (SRI) and suggests that it is better off implementing dynamic SRI investment strategies according to economic condition.

The evidence suggests that the economic value of employee satisfaction is related to firms’ financial flexibility and economic conditions.

The authors contribute to the literature by showing that the impact of employee satisfaction on firm value changes over time. The test design not only allows the authors to study the effect of employee satisfaction on firm value at a particular point in time, but also helps the authors examine the variation in the effect over economic cycles. This paper also contributes to the literature on SRI. The authors identify a crucial factor that impacts the value-creation of employee satisfaction: financial flexibility.