Nixon Shingai Chekenya and Canicio Dzingirai
The anecdote of this paper is to bring the aid effectiveness debate to the sub-national level using the change in night lights as an alternative measure of economic activity. We…
Abstract
Purpose
The anecdote of this paper is to bring the aid effectiveness debate to the sub-national level using the change in night lights as an alternative measure of economic activity. We observe non-robustness of results regarding the effects of aid types on development in antecedent literature to arise due to the effects of aid being treated as a unitary component. provoked by such insightful observation and literature deficiency we employed geocoded data to examine Causal links between the varying types of aid and local economic development in Malawi.
Design/methodology/approach
The main objective of the empirical examination is to examine the distributional effects of distinct aid types in local towns in Malawi. For that purpose, the authors thus have a panel dataset for each aid type indicator. Allowing for fixed time and town effects, the baseline light density growth regression model to estimate the effectiveness of disentangled aid on night light intensity was accomplished by employing a spatial dynamic panel data (SDPD) approach with instrumentation. Thus, panel regressions were performed to investigate both conceptual and policy implications.
Findings
Cross-city evidence shows that category aid type brings both negative and positive results depending on location within a country. There are cities and locations where certain aid type(s) does not matter whereas it matters most in some. This speaks to different levels of growth between different regions and cities in Malawi. As a result, we observe the size of the effect of distinct aid type(s) on economic activities to vary (increase/decrease) with the size of the location.
Research limitations/implications
It may be interesting to generalize results from this study to a panel case over long periods of time using dynamic modelling with both threshold analysis and interaction effects Institutional factors need also to be includes in similar analyses. The authors leave this for a follow-up study. Second, the most immediate opportunity is application of the methodology to the other countries with geo-coded AidData. The authors expect to expand the analysis by taking into account other determinants of aid effectiveness at the local level, including the characteristics of donors and varieties of targeted development programmes.
Practical implications
Results in some geographical locations and towns indicate that the authors do not have sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis of the research study at 5% level. However, other geographical locations like Zomba indicate that aid category has a significant bearing on local economic growth. Therefore, as opposed to unitary aid approaches, we recommend distribution of relevant disentangled growth-enhancing aid type to specific administrative regions but with a bias toward smaller socially and economically deprived regions and towns.
Social implications
The unique insight from this study is that foreign aid-growth benefits are symmetric and skewed toward large towns. If such unbalance aid-growth benefits anomalies are not addressed in a transparent manner it has the possibilities of promoting interregional migration which from Nielsen et al. (2011) and Findley et al (2011)'s evidence might trigger regional tensions and violent armed conflicts. Thus, there is need for equitable distribution of social and economic developmental aid free from political or ethnic inclination but based on transparent needs assessment model(s). Locations where social and developmental aid types seem to have negative or no effect serves as a salient indicator of aid leakages due to rent seeking tendencies of bureaucrats or weak institutions which ultimately pose welfare burden on citizens.
Originality/value
Apart from contributing to the extant literature on aid and economic growth, this paper relates to at least three other strands of research. First, the work partially answers a call by Minoiu and Reddy (2010), Schmid (2013) and Khomba and Trew (2019) for researchers to examine the growth effects of distinct aid types on local economic development. Second, the increase in aid volumes to Africa and the worsening of economic conditions has been the subject of considerable interest amongst development economists (e.g. Ravenhill, 1990; Lancaster, 1999; Easterly, 2003; Bräutigam and Knack, 2004 and Collier, 2006). This makes the use of a major aid recipient developing economy (Malawi) as a laboratory an anecdote. Third, use of disaggregated as opposed to unitary aid data with an African flavour.
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Canicio Dzingirai and Nixon S. Chekenya
The life insurance industry has been exposed to high levels of longevity risk born from the mismatch between realized mortality trends and anticipated forecast. Annuity providers…
Abstract
Purpose
The life insurance industry has been exposed to high levels of longevity risk born from the mismatch between realized mortality trends and anticipated forecast. Annuity providers are exposed to extended periods of annuity payments. There are no immediate instruments in the market to counter the risk directly. This paper aims to develop appropriate instruments for hedging longevity risk and providing an insight on how existing products can be tailor-made to effectively immunize portfolios consisting of life insurance using a cointegration vector error correction model with regime-switching (RS-VECM), which enables both short-term fluctuations, through the autoregressive structure [AR(1)] and long-run equilibria using a cointegration relationship. The authors also develop synthetic products that can be used to effectively hedge longevity risk faced by life insurance and annuity providers who actively hold portfolios of life insurance products. Models are derived using South African data. The authors also derive closed-form expressions for hedge ratios associated with synthetic products written on life insurance contracts as this will provide a natural way of immunizing the associated portfolios. The authors further show how to address the current liquidity challenges in the longevity market by devising longevity swaps and develop pricing and hedging algorithms for longevity-linked securities. The use of a cointergrating relationship improves the model fitting process, as all the VECMs and RS-VECMs yield greater criteria values than their vector autoregressive model (VAR) and regime-switching vector autoregressive model (RS-VAR) counterpart’s, even though there are accruing parameters involved.
Design/methodology/approach
The market model adopted from Ngai and Sherris (2011) is a cointegration RS-VECM for this enables both short-term fluctuations, through the AR(1) and long-run equilibria using a cointegration relationship (Johansen, 1988, 1995a, 1995b), with a heteroskedasticity through the use of regime-switching. The RS-VECM is seen to have the best fit for Australian data under various model selection criteria by Sherris and Zhang (2009). Harris (1997) (Sajjad et al., 2008) also fits a regime-switching VAR model using Australian (UK and US) data to four key macroeconomic variables (market stock indices), showing that regime-switching is a significant improvement over autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) processes in the account for volatility, evidence similar to that of Sherris and Zhang (2009) in the case of Exponential Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ERCH). Ngai and Sherris (2011) and Sherris and Zhang (2009) also fit a VAR model to Australian data with simultaneous regime-switching across many economic and financial series.
Findings
The authors develop a longevity swap using nighttime data instead of usual income measures as it yields statistically accurate results. The authors also develop longevity derivatives and annuities including variable annuities with guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit (GLWB) and inflation-indexed annuities. Improved market and mortality models are developed and estimated using South African data to model the underlying risks. Macroeconomic variables dependence is modeled using a cointegrating VECM as used in Ngai and Sherris (2011), which enables both short-run dependence and long-run equilibrium. Longevity swaps provide protection against longevity risk and benefit the most from hedging longevity risk. Longevity bonds are also effective as a hedging instrument in life annuities. The cost of hedging, as reflected in the price of longevity risk, has a statistically significant effect on the effectiveness of hedging options.
Research limitations/implications
This study relied on secondary data partly reported by independent institutions and the government, which may be biased because of smoothening, interpolation or extrapolation processes.
Practical implications
An examination of South Africa’s mortality based on industry experience in comparison to population mortality would demand confirmation of the analysis in this paper based on Belgian data as well as other less developed economies. This study shows that to provide inflation-indexed life annuities, there is a need for an active market for hedging inflation in South Africa. This would demand the South African Government through the help of Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) to issue inflation-indexed securities which will help annuities and insurance providers immunize their portfolios from longevity risk.
Social implications
In South Africa, there is an infant market for inflation hedging and no market for longevity swaps. The effect of not being able to hedge inflation is guaranteed, and longevity swaps in annuity products is revealed to be useful and significant, particularly using developing or emerging economies as a laboratory. This study has shown that government issuance or allowing issuance, of longevity swaps, can enable insurers to manage longevity risk. If the South African Government, through ASSA, is to develop a projected mortality reference index for South Africa, this would allow the development of mortality-linked securities and longevity swaps which ultimately maximize the social welfare of life assurance policy holders.
Originality/value
The paper proposes longevity swaps and static hedging because they are simple, less costly and practical with feasible applications to the South African market, an economy of over 50 million people. As the market for MLS develops further, dynamic hedging should become possible.
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Nixon S. Chekenya and Shingirai Sikomwe
Using data for the period 1965–2016, we investigate whether there are systematic differences between the investment performance of Black fund managers and those of other races in…
Abstract
Purpose
Using data for the period 1965–2016, we investigate whether there are systematic differences between the investment performance of Black fund managers and those of other races in South Africa and whether investors recognize these differences. The two-tailed test results show that there is no significant difference between the two means considering the 12 months yield return at a hypothesized mean difference of zero. There is no statistical difference at 5% level of significance implying that the performance of Black fund managers is as equally as that of managers of other races. Our results also show that the percentage of Black fund managers in South Africa is still too low even as the workforce gets diverse. There's no single explanation for what is happening in this industry. The findings cannot be explained by differences in fund characteristics such as age, total assets under management or expenses or from the performance lenses. The results seem hard to reconcile with an explanation of differences in portfolio characteristics such as return volatility or market, size, value and momentum exposures.
Design/methodology/approach
We test the glass cliff hypothesis by employing conditional logistic regression (CLR). The approach enables the use of case/control style of analysis where White/majority fund managers are the control population and professional minorities are the case group. The selection of these as fund managers is our event or outcome variable. To test savior effect hypothesis, we employ analysis of variance (ANOVA). The technique enables us to compare variances between the groups: when a White male fund manager replaces a professional minority, when a White male fund manager replaces a White male fund manager and when a professional minority replaces a professional minority.
Findings
Our analyses so far have documented a woeful underrepresentation of Black fund managers in South Africa's mutual funds industry. We explore potential explanations for these trends. Our analysis is meant to be suggestive. Are Blacks, women, people of color and ethnic minorities finding success in the investment industry? Are they having rewarding and fulfilling careers? Or is the industry still homogenous (just a White man's world) with a thin veneer of diversity layered on for public relations effect? The percentage of Black fund managers in South Africa is still too low even as the workforce gets diverse. There is no single explanation for what is happening in this industry. The findings cannot be explained by differences in fund characteristics such as age, total assets under management or expenses or from the performance lenses. Also, the results seem hard to reconcile with an explanation of differences in portfolio characteristics such as return volatility or market, size, value and momentum exposures.
Research limitations/implications
The two-tailed test results show that there is no significant difference between the two means considering the 12 months yield return at a hypothesized mean difference of zero. There is no statistical difference at 5% level of significance. Our results so far establish that, ceteris paribus, the performance of Black fund managers is as equally as that of managers of other races.
Practical implications
The two-tailed test results show that there is no significant difference between the two means considering the 12 months yield return at a hypothesized mean difference of zero. There is no statistical difference at 5% level of significance. Our results so far establish that, ceteris paribus, the performance of Black fund managers is as equally important as that of managers of other races.
Social implications
The two-tailed test results show that there is no significant difference between the two means considering the 12 months yield return at a hypothesized mean difference of zero. There is no statistical difference at 5% level of significance. Our results so far establish that, ceteris paribus, the performance of Black fund managers is as equally important as that of managers of other races.
Originality/value
This paper investigates whether there are systematic differences between the investment performance of Black fund managers and those of other races in South Africa and whether investors recognize these differences. Our hypothesis is that due to Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) laws in the country and possibly, due to a perception of discrimination in the market, it is only Black fund managers with superior fund management skills that enter the profession. As such, we expect to find superior performance among Black fund managers. We also conjecture that investors recognize this phenomenon and reward Black fund managers with more fund flows and more investment mandates than others.