C. Leishman, N.A. Dunse, F.J. Warren and C. Watkins
This paper reports the results from the first stage of a research project that examines changes in urban office occupiers’ space requirements and their impact on the structure of…
Abstract
This paper reports the results from the first stage of a research project that examines changes in urban office occupiers’ space requirements and their impact on the structure of urban office markets. The specific objectives of the project are to compare occupiers’ trade‐offs and preferences between submarkets in the Edinburgh market and to look at the way in which agents influence the process by which occupiers are matched to space in particular submarkets. The results discussed are based on two surveys: first we analyse a detailed survey of office occupiers in two office submarkets in Edinburgh; and second, office agents are surveyed. This allows us to compare their perception of occupiers’ space requirements with those expressed by respondent occupiers. The results suggest that agents’ knowledge of occupier preferences vary across submarkets and that, in particular, they are less well informed about occupiers’ preferences in non‐traditional submarkets.
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Le-Vinh-Lam Doan and Adipandang Yudono
This paper aims to bring together research on housing market area, submarket and household migration into a systems approach that helps us gain a better understanding of the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to bring together research on housing market area, submarket and household migration into a systems approach that helps us gain a better understanding of the structure and dynamics of a housing market and identify housing problems for a large metropolitan area.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses a geographic information system (GIS)-based method with simple quantitative techniques, including spatial analysis, location analysis, house price clustering and cross-tabulation. The analysis is based on migration data from the 2011 Census, house price data from the Land Registry in 2011 for Greater Manchester at the ward level and the output areas level.
Findings
The results show that different submarkets and housing market areas had different patterns of spatial migration and connections with other areas. Through a systematic analysis of migration and house price in combination, it also found a close connection between destination submarkets and the ages of migrants and identified specific problematic patterns for a large metropolitan area.
Research limitations/implications
The interactions between the owner-occupied sector and the social and private rented sectors are arguably an important omission from the analysis. Also, it is acknowledged that clustering ward units based on price differentials is subject to distortions in terms of specification, size and shape. Moreover, the use of the large samples may result in very small p-values, leading to the problem of the rejection of the predefined hypothesis.
Practical implications
A systematic analysis of migration and house price in combination may be used to gain a better understanding of the housing market dynamics and identify housing problems systematically for a large metropolitan. It may help to identify low-demand areas, high-demand areas and assist planners with decisions in allocating suitable land for new housing constructions.
Social implications
The GIS-based method introduced in the paper could be considered as an effective approach to provide a better basis for determining policy interventions and public investment designed to allocate land resources effectively and improve transport systems to change existing problematic migration patterns.
Originality/value
This paper fills a gap in the international literature in relation to adopting a systems approach that analyses migration and house price data sets in combination to systematically explore migration patterns and linkages and identify housing problems for a large metropolitan area. This systems approach can be applied in any metropolitan area where migration and house price data are available.
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Neil Dunse, Chris Leishman and Craig Watkins
In this paper, it is argued that neo‐classical location theory is of limited value in conceptualising the structure of urban office markets. Rather there are sound theoretical and…
Abstract
In this paper, it is argued that neo‐classical location theory is of limited value in conceptualising the structure of urban office markets. Rather there are sound theoretical and technical arguments for segmenting office markets into distinct submarkets. It is further argued that submarkets, rather than being based on prior knowledge of agents or researchers, should be derived empirically. As an illustration the authors use principal components analysis and cluster analysis to construct office submarkets. The results reported are based on the analysis of a unique dataset of asking rents, physical and locational characteristics of properties on the market in the cities of Glasgow and Edinburgh in the 1990s. From the empirical evidence, it is clear that different factors are important in influencing the structure of the office market in Scotland’s major urban centres.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the banking crisis in the USA and Western Europe that began in August 2007 spilled over to the currencies of the EU‐8 such that it…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the banking crisis in the USA and Western Europe that began in August 2007 spilled over to the currencies of the EU‐8 such that it could be viewed as financial contagion. The currencies of the EU‐8 which the paper aims to study are of the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and Slovakia, daily, from 2005 to 2008.
Design/methodology/approach
Contagion is said to be revealed if there are greater links after August 2007 compared with before. The links or bonds are revealed by the number of cointegrating vectors and the extent of Granger causality that exists among the currencies. The role of the euro is also identified using the same techniques.
Findings
The bonds between these seven countries strengthen after the beginning of the banking crisis compared with before, whilst the ties with the euro remains stable.
Research limitations/implications
A banking crisis not directly related to the EU‐8 spilled over to a change in the correlations among their currencies. If the EU requires convergence of emerging with developed markets before currency assimilation, research is needed to explore how a record of financial rectitude can be demonstrated whilst recognising that contagion is more likely to affect those emerging markets and information deficiencies.
Practical implications
First, the EU should reconsider the entry requirements for the EU‐8 still disqualified from joining the euro. The protected two‐year period of displaying financial rectitude via targeting the euro before accession is considered may now appear a burden that to great for small economies to bear. Second, it is not necessarily a crisis that changes the rewards from diversification, contagion may also do this.
Originality/value
The finding of increased bonding among emerging market currencies precipitated by a banking crisis in related geographical and financial markets, before a local crisis became evident is novel.
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Andrea Berndgen-Kaiser, Tine Köhler, Markus Wiechert, Stefan Netsch, Christine Ruelle and Anne-Francoise Marique
Single-family houses are a common form of housing in Europe. Most were built in the context of the suburbanization after World War II and are now facing challenges arising from…
Abstract
Single-family houses are a common form of housing in Europe. Most were built in the context of the suburbanization after World War II and are now facing challenges arising from generational changes as well as increasing living and energy standards. According to the hypothesis of this paper, in several EU regions, single-family houses may face future challenges arising from oversupply and lack of adaptation to current demand. To examine this, the paper analyses the present situation and discusses the prognosis for the challenges described above regarding the three neighbouring north-western European countries Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands, based on available data and a review of country-specific characteristics of housing markets as well as national policies. Despite an impending mismatch between demand and supply, planning policies still support the emergence of new single-family houses. The comparison of Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands shows the growing polarization between shrinking and growing regions and central and peripheral sites apparent at different stages in the three countries. While a high rate of vacancies is already registered for some regions in Germany, in the Netherlands this phenomenon can only be seen near the borders and in villages within the Randstad conurbation. In Belgium also, this phenomenon is not yet widespread, but in some suburban neighbourhoods dating from the 1950's and 1960's more and more single-family houses are becoming more difficult to sell, indicating an emerging mismatch between supply and demand. This article proposes some instruments which enable municipalities to intervene in single family housing neighbourhoods which are largely dominated by private ownership. These instruments are not yet widely established in single-family housing neighbourhoods but that may become important in the future.
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Mei-Se Chien, Neng-Huei Lee and Chih-Yang Cheng
This paper aims to examine the linkage of regional housing markets between Taiwan and China as increasing economic integration.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the linkage of regional housing markets between Taiwan and China as increasing economic integration.
Design/methodology/approach
Two time-varying estimations of cointegration tests, Gregory and Hansen (1996) cointegration test with structural break and the recursive coefficients of cointegration (Hansen and Johansen, 1993) are applied to trace the possible dynamic linkage of cross-border regional housing prices between Taiwan and China.
Findings
First, the estimating results of the long-run relationships show that increasing housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai decrease Taipei’s house prices, while Shenzhen and Chengdu have converse effects. The technologies’ levels of Taiwanese industries surrounding the cities in China will affect the direction of the linkage of regional housing prices between the two economies. Second, in light of causalities of these five housing prices’ changes, Beijing and Shanghai lead Taipei and Shanghai leads Chengdu, which, in turn, leads Shenzhen. Finally, the results of time-varying cointegration tests show that some critical economic and political incidents changed the linkages of housing prices between Taipei and the four cities in China.
Originality/value
Although some empirical works examined the linkages between cross-border house prices in Europe and the USA, study has looked at the linkages of cross-border housing prices between Taiwan and China. This is an interesting topic insofar as house price integration has implications for wealth effects that feed into consumer expenditure in both Taiwan and China. The empirical evidence overall displays the existence of the integration of regional housing markets between Taiwan and China. For the longer-term future, increasing economic integration between China and other Asia countries will result in greater and more diversified cross-border housing markets and pools of investors.
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The purpose of this study is to reveal the dynamics of house prices and sales in spatial and temporal dimensions across British regions.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to reveal the dynamics of house prices and sales in spatial and temporal dimensions across British regions.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper incorporates two empirical approaches to describe the behaviour of property prices across British regions. The models are applied to two different data sets. The first empirical approach is to apply the price diffusion model proposed by Holly et al. (2011) to the UK house price index data set. The second empirical approach is to apply a bivariate global vector autoregression model without a time trend to house prices and transaction volumes retrieved from the nationwide building society.
Findings
Identifying shocks to London house prices in the GVAR model, based on the generalized impulse response functions framework, I find some heterogeneity in responses to house price changes; for example, South East England responds stronger than the remaining provincial regions. The main pattern detected in responses and characteristic for each region is the fairly rapid fading of the shock. The spatial-temporal diffusion model demonstrates the presence of a ripple effect: a shock emanating from London is dispersed contemporaneously and spatially to other regions, affecting prices in nondominant regions with a delay.
Originality/value
The main contribution of this work is the betterment in understanding how house price changes move across regions and time within a UK context.
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Simon Pinnegar, Robert Freestone and Bill Randolph
Cities are continually built and unbuilt (Hommels, 2005), reflecting cycles of investment and disinvestment across space, the machinations of housing and urban policy…
Abstract
Cities are continually built and unbuilt (Hommels, 2005), reflecting cycles of investment and disinvestment across space, the machinations of housing and urban policy interventions, and shifting patterns of household need, demand, choice and constraint. The drivers of change are fluid and reflect shifting political, institutional, technological, environmental and socio-economic contexts. Urban landscapes evolve in concert with these changes, but the built environment tends to be defined more in terms of spatial fixity and the path-dependency of physical fabric. Suburban neighbourhoods register this dynamism in different ways as they have flourished, declined and subsequently revalorised over time. Changes initiated through redevelopment, from large-scale public renewal to alterations and renovations by individual owner-occupiers, are long-standing signifiers of reinvestment (Montgomery, 1992; Munro & Leather, 2000; Whitehand & Carr, 2001). Our concern here relates to a particular form of incremental suburban renewal: the increasing significance of private ‘knockdown rebuild’ (KDR) activity. KDR refers to the wholesale demolition and replacement of single homes on individual lots. We are interested in the scale and manifestations of this under-researched process and, in particular, the new insights offered to debates regarding gentrification, residential mobility and choice, and in turn, potential implications for metropolitan housing and planning policy. Our focus is Sydney, Australia.
Morteza Moallemi, Daniel Melser, Ashton de Silva and Xiaoyan Chen
The purpose of this paper is on developing and implementing a model which provides a fuller and more comprehensive reflection of the interaction of house prices at the suburb…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is on developing and implementing a model which provides a fuller and more comprehensive reflection of the interaction of house prices at the suburb level.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors examine how changes in housing prices evolve across space within the suburban context. In doing so, the authors developed a model which allows for suburbs to be connected both because of their geographic proximity but also by non-spatial factors, such as similarities in socioeconomic or demographic characteristics. This approach is applied to modelling home price dynamics in Melbourne, Australia, from 2007 to 2018.
Findings
The authors found that including both spatial and non-spatial linkages between suburbs provides a better representation of the data. It also provides new insights into the way spatial shocks are transmitted around the city and how suburban housing markets are clustered.
Originality/value
The authors have generalized the widely used SAR model and advocated building a spatial weights matrix that allows for both geographic and socioeconomic linkages between suburbs within the HOSAR framework. As the authors outlined, such a model can be easily estimated using maximum likelihood. The benefits of such a model are that it yields an improved fit to the data and more accurate spatial spill-over estimates.
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Chris Leishman and Craig Watkins
This paper argues that the methods of constructing house price indices for UK markets lag behind those employed in Europe, Australasia and North America. This is particularly…
Abstract
This paper argues that the methods of constructing house price indices for UK markets lag behind those employed in Europe, Australasia and North America. This is particularly evident in terms of the range and level of technical sophistication of the index construction methodologies. Importantly, the paper argues that the absence of reliable house price indicators undermines the decision‐making ability of policy makers and investors operating in urban housing markets. The paper suggests that this can, in part, be remedied by the construction of a system of local house price indices for British cities. The empirical research presents the first UK application of the repeat sales method to UK data. Indices are constructed for four cities and a range of diagnostic tests are used to establish the reliability and accuracy of the indices as a means of monitoring house price change. The research concludes by suggesting that the methods used here should be tested further on data from major metropolitan regions in England and Wales.